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Statistics Test 1
QA711
57
Other
Graduate
10/17/2010

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Term
Six Sigma
Definition

business process improvement approach that seeks to find and eliminate causes of defects and errors, reduce cycle times and cost of operations, improve productivity, better meet customer expectations, and achieve higher asset use and returns on investment in manufacturing and service processes 

  • based on DMAIC- Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control 

  • Appeal- focus on measurable results 

  • 3.4 errors in a million opportunities (DPMO= defects per million opportunities) 

 

Term
metric
Definition

unit of measurement that provides a way to objectively quantify performance (i.e. net profit, return on investment) 

discrete metric: countable or proportional  

continuous metric: degree of conformance to specifications (i.e. length, time, weight)

Term
lagging measures
Definition
what has happened
Term
leading measures
Definition
what will happen
Term
statistics
Definition
science of collecting, organizing, analyzing, interpreting, and presenting data
Term
principles of statistical thinking (3)
Definition

  • all work occurs in a system of interconnected processes 

  • variation exists in all processes 

  • understanding and reducing variation are keys to success

Term
discrete metric
Definition
countable or proportional
Term
continuous metric
Definition
degree of conformance to specifications (i.e. length, time, weight) 
Term
midrange
Definition
average of the largest and smallest values in the data set (HUGELY susceptible to outliers) 
Term
[image]
Definition
expected value of variance and standard deviation
Term
[image]
Definition

expected value of the mean

 

weighted average of possible values

Term
[image]
Definition
mean for simple frequency distribution of a population
Term
[image]
Definition
mean of simple frequency distribution of a sample
Term
[image]
Definition
standard deviation of a population for a simple frequency distribution
Term
[image]
Definition
standard deviation of a sample for a simple frequency distribution
Term
[image]
Definition
variance of a population in a simple frequency distribution
Term
[image]
Definition
variance of a sample in a simple frequency distribution
Term
[image]
Definition
calculate the mean of a population
Term
[image]
Definition
calculate the mean of a sample
Term
[image]
Definition
calculate the variance of a population
Term
[image]
Definition
calculate the variance of a sample
Term
Chebyshev's Theorem
Definition
the proportion of values that lie within k standard deviations of mean is at least 1-(1/k^2) (for any k greater than 1)
Term
coefficient of variation (CV)
Definition
standard deviation/mean
Term
coefficient of skewness (CS)
Definition
measures degree of assymetry of distribution around a mean- tail to the right= positive, tail to the left= negative
Term
kurtosis
Definition
how peaked or flat a distribution is
Term
cross tabulation/ contigency table
Definition
number of observations in a data set for different subcategories
Term
Probability Rules (3)
Definition

  1. The probability of any event is the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes that compose that event 

  2. If A and B are mutually exclusive, the P(A or B)= P(A)+P(B) 

  3. If 2 events A and B are NOT mutually exclusive, then P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B)

Term
discrete probability distributions (mass functions)
Definition

  1. If 0≤f(xsubi)≤1 (the probability of each outcome must be between 0 and 1) 

  2. the sum of all probabilities must add to 1

Term
[image]
Definition

probability mass function of binomial distribution

models n independent replications of a Bernoulli experiment, each with a  probability of success. X represents the number of successes in these n experiments. Difficult to compute by hand. 

(n over x)= n!/(x!(n-x!))

Term
[image]
Definition

probability mass function for poisson distribution

discrete distribution used to model the number of occurrences in some unit of measure  

average number of occurrences per unit is a constant= λ

Term
[image]
Definition

a random variable with two possible outcomes with constant probabilities of p occurence.

Typically, success (x=1) or failure (x=0)

Term
[image]
Definition

probability mass function for uniform distribution

characterizes a continuous random variable for which all outcomes between some minimum value a and maximum value b are equally likely. (therefore, a graph will have a flat line representing probability)

Term
[image]
Definition

transformation to standardized normal values

(for use in normal distribution)

Term
P(A|B) = P(A and B)/P(B)
Definition

Conditional probability- probability of occurrence of one event A, given that event B has occurred. 

Term
sigma/sqrt(n)
Definition

standard error of the mean

the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the mean

Term
Bernoulli distribution (characteristics, expected value, variance)
Definition

a random variable with two possible outcomes with constant probabilities of p occurrence. Typically, success (x=1) or failure (x=0).

The expected value is p, and the variance is p(1-p)

[image]

Term
Binomial distribution (characteristics, expected value, variance)
Definition

models n independent replications of a Bernoulli experiment, each with a  probability of success. X represents the number of successes in these n experiments. Difficult to compute by hand. 

The expected value is np, and the variance is np(1-p)

[image]

Term
Poisson distribution (characteristics, expected value, variance)
Definition

discrete distribution used to model the number of occurrences in some unit of measure (ie. The number of events occurring in an interval of time). Assumes no limit on the number of occurrences, occurrences are independent, and that the average number of occurrences per unit is a constant, λ (lower case lambda). 

Expected value is λ, and variance is λ. 

[image]

Term
Joint probability distribution
Definition
specifies the probability of outcomes of two different variables that occur at the same time
Term
Statistical independence
Definition
the value of one random variable does not depend on the value of the other
Term
Monte Carlo methods
Definition

 

involve sampling experiments whose purpose is to estimate the distribution of an outcome variable that depends on several input random variables.  

To apply Monte Carlo simulation, we need to generate outcomes from many different types of probability distributions. 

Monte Carlo application- if we know the expected value and we know the range, we can estimate the deviation

 

Term
Sampling distribution of the mean
Definition
using multiple samples and comparing the means
Term
Central limit theorem
Definition
if a sample size is large enough, the sampling distribution of the mean can be approximated by normal distribution regardless of the shape of the population distribution 
Term
nonsampling error
Definition
 the sample does not represent the target population adequately 
Term
sampling (statistical) error
Definition
 can be minimized, but not avoided, because the sample is not the entire population 
Term
point estimate
Definition
single numbers used to estimate the value of a population parameter (typically mean, variance, proportion) (because of sampling error, it is unlikely that a point estimate will equal the true value of the population parameter) 
Term
confidence intervals
Definition
provide a range of values between which the value of the population parameter is believed to be, and also provide an assessment of sampling error by specifying a probability that the interval correctly estimates the true (unknown) population parameter 
Term
[image]
Definition

confidence interval for the mean with a known standard deviation

Sample mean plus or minus a margin of error 

The margin of error is a number z(alpha/2) times the standard error of the sampling distribution of the mean , sigma/square root n

Term
[image]
Definition

confidence interval for the mean with an unknown population standard deviation

Where (t sub alpha over 2, n-1) is the value from the t-distribution with n-1 degrees of freedom, giving an upper-tail probability of alpha/2.

Term
[image]
Definition

confidence interval for proportion

 

For use with categorical variables having only two possible outcomes

ss (good or bad, male or female) 

 

Term
[image]
Definition

confidence intervals for variance

Chi-square distribution is not symmetric, which means that the confidence interval is not an estimate to the left or right of a point estimate

TO FIND CI FOR SD, take the square root of both values

Term
[image]
Definition

t test statistic

for one-sample hypothesis tests (for samples with unknown population standard deviation)

where mu sub 0 is the hypothesized value and s/sqrtn is the standard error or the sampling distribution of the mean

Has a t-distribution with n-1 degrees of freedom

Term
[image]
Definition

z-test statistic for one-sample test for proportions

where pisub0 is the hypothesized value. The denominator represents the standard error for the sampling distribution of the proportion and is shown in the intermediate calculations 

 

used to determine whether or not we reject the null hypothesis 

 

Term
difference between Confidence Interval (CI) and probability interval
Definition
Probability interval: any interval (A,B) such that P(A less than X less than B)= 1-alpha
Describes the probability that a random variable falls within the interval
CIs are most appropriate for cross-sectional data (not time-series)
Term
type I error
Definition
The null hypothesis is actually true, but the hypothesis test incorrectly rejects it

Probability of making a Type I error is α and is called the level of significance of a test (the risk you can afford to take in making the incorrect conclusion that the alternative hypothesis is true when in fact the null hypothesis is true
Term
type II error
Definition
The null hypothesis is actually false, but the hypothesis test incorrectly fails to reject it

Probability of making a Type II error is β. This cannot be specified in advance but depends on the true value of the unknown population parameter
Term
p-value
Definition
used in hypothesis tests

probability of obtaining a test statistic value equal to or more extreme than that obtained from the sample data when the null hypothesis is true (also called observed significance level)
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