Ansley Coale's 3 preconditions for fertility decline

(inovation/diffusion)

1) Acceptance of calculated choice as a valid element in marital fertility (RATIONALITY)

2) Perception of advantages from reduced fertility (SMALL FAMILY BENEFITS)

3) Associating between fertility and poverty (CHILDREN ECONOMIC ASSET)

"Yellow Peril" (United States)

Restrictions on Chinese immigrants who were already in the U.S.

Restricted new immigrants applying to America

Removed in 1943

Opened doors for Asians and Latin Americans

America's landscape changed

Ended discrimination toward Asians

"Browning of America" for asians and latin americans

Limited immigration by imposing a quota of 3% from each foreign country

Okayed nationalities residing in U.S. already

Restricted people from Asia and discouraged Europeans (S and E)

It was later dropped

3 million illegal immigrants were given amnesty and simply pardoned off

Family reunification

(example: Kenya)

high mortality & fertility

Short life expectancy

Rapid population Growth

Broad at the bottom (CHILD AGE STRUCTURE)

(Example: United States)

Change from rapid to near stationary

Now China is starting to experience it

(BIG MIDDLE AGE STRUCTURE) "beer belly"

Baby boomers have begun to retire (middle age)

TFR 2.0-2.1

Longer life expectancy

(Example: Denmark)

Birth/death rates low and constant

rectangular shape; each cohort is almost the same as the other cohort

Birth/death rate is relatively low and constant for a long time

Females outnumber males

2.1 births

Zero population growth

De Jong and Fawcett "Value Expectancy Model"

(Conceptual Model)

Individual/Household Characteristics

(dejong and fawcett)

Age (indicates where you are going to move), life cycle, ethnicity, migrability, (20-29 younger couples with children have a higher migrability compared to 50-60)

African americans have more migrability opportunity and send money back home so that the quality of life and standard of living goes up.

Social Cultural

(dejong and fawcett)

Girls expected to stay home

only time expected to migrate is when they marry

Standard of living goes up and social cultural norms change

Risk Taking

(dejong and fawcett)

Opportunity Structure

dejong and fawcett

Growing economies with scarcity of labor and high wages attract immigrants

Investment in human capital= high incomes and great opportunities

(indian docs improve on english and migrate to U.S.)

People from LDCs migrate to MDC's or better ldcs

Core Nations (U.S.) and LDCs INTERDEPENDENCY

MDCs rely on LDCs

outsourcing of jobs

Migration is a result of capital development

Migration to core nations from LDCs

Primary and Secondary Sector

Primary- professionals, higher wages, advancements, security

Secondary-lower wages, dead end jobs, no education, drop-outs

People migrate from secondary to primary

YAS and working age structure combo with technological advancement and investing human capital (quality of life, productivity, healthcare, education)

Sub Saharan African countries main concern is how to provide the basic necessities. The government is corrupt so they cannot make heavy investment in the human capital since huge amount of revenue goes to providing basic needs for the YAS.

dependency ratio

Lower fertility, lower the dependency ratio, LOWER THE BURDEN

Demographic dividend (dependent age population working age)

Higher the fertility, higher the dependency ratio. HIGHER THE BURDEN ON SOCIETY

Distribution of males and females and age of them

Number of females

·       Migration, mortality, and fertility operates differently to create inequalities in the ratio of males to females

(se ratio inbalance in India) too few girls, son preference is weaker in Kerala but women decreased sharply in Punjab

Higher the fertility, higher