Venezuela under Hugo Chavez is a threat

• repressive autocracy, with political and economic centralization
• threat to US through support of FARC, Iran, and potential threat to Panama Canal
• military spending antagonistic

Venezuela under Chavez is not a threat.

• Chavez is democratically supported, albeit in an illiberal way
• Chavez is opportunistic, not antagonistic, in deriving support from anti-Americanism

Capitalism does undermine democracy.

• Capitalism focuses on efficiency, not fairness
• Capitalization hasn't corresponded to democratization (i.e. Russia, China; also, acted against in Western Europe, Japan)
• Corporate power in politics damages democracy

Capitalism does not undermine democracy.

• Capitalism and democratization are empirically tied via statistical indices
• Capitalism historically prompts democratization, as in "third wave"
• Capitalism creates independent wealth to stand against government, keep it in check

China is a threatening superpower.

• China's military expansion and spending (based on PPP), especially in peacetime, is antagonistic
• China seeks to expand its prestige and global clout (cites 2006 white paper)

China is not a threatening superpower.

• China's economy is weak
• China will expend any gains relative to the US in dealing with social and environmental problems (should be helped, to prevent collapse)
• China's military expansion is not extraordinary

• expectation of benefit (i.e. China joining Allies in WWI, hoping to gain German possessions in China)
  
• fear of being disadvantaged (i.e. US promising to "bomb Pakistan into the stone age" unless cooperation against Taliban)
  
• respect for institutions and leaders (i.e. Jimmy Carter in Cambodia)

• power vs. influence (i.e. President vs. Sec. of State)
• legitimacy vs. illegitimacy (i.e. US-led invasion of Kuwait vs. invasion of Iraq in 2003)
• absolute vs. relative power

• military power (manpower, weapons, morale, education, leadership/doctrine)
• economic power (industry, resources, technology)
• strategic power (size, population, geopolitics)
• self-sufficiency

Reputation for power, both in country's view of itself and how others view it

• diplomacy and military display
• focus on prestige can exaggerate power (i.e. Germany in 1930s), underestimate power (i.e. Japan in 1930s), or lead to prestige for its own sake (i.e. US in Vietnam)

Conceptual tools allowing study to go beyond description toward explanation of events, and eventually prediction

1. Human Nature/Individual
2. State Structure
3. International/State System

Human Nature/Individual

1. Human Nature
   • optimists (war anomolous)
   • pessimists (war inherent)
2. Individuals
   • political leadership styles (i.e. Nixon vs Carter vs Kennedy)
   • gender
   • stress
   • dissonance (i.e. Stalin after invasion in 1941)

Domestic forces/structure of a state cause actions

Example: US democracy creates popular demand for cheap oil, so gov't provides it with war in Iraq

Stability of a state can impact its foreign policy, with external conflict creating internal cohesion

Examples:

• Falklands War in 1982
• Louis-Napoleon's wars under Second Empire
• Sukarno's threats to Malaysia
• Idi Amin's invasion of Tanzania

idea that democracies do not go to war with other democracies

(Michael Doyle)

Example: US-Britain over Venezuela/Guyana in 1890s

idea that states violating international norms are more warlike

• Gaddafi's Libya in 1980s
• North Korea under Kim Jong-il (also ties in with diversionary war theory)

International System/State System

External forces shape, constrain, and impact opportunities and options for state actions

• systemic structure (anarchy)
• distribution of power

Outcome of anarchical state structure and distribution of power, with states competing for more absolute power but insodoing reducing others' relative power, driving further provocation

• example: arms race
• process: anarchy --> self-help (due to "911 Problem") --> security dilemma

• Unipolar (one power)--i.e. Pax Romana, Pax Britannica, Pax Americana (1991-2001)
• Bipolar (two powers/alliances, relatively equal)--i.e. Cold War
• Multipolar (three or more powers/alliances, relatively equal)--i.e. pre-WWI Europe