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-opinions held by private persons that government finds it prudent to head.
-aggregate of the views of individual adults on matters of public interest. |
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| analysis by researchers other than those who collected the data |
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| the strength of an individuals views on an issue |
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topics on which there is uniform agreement or disagreement
EX. law and order |
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-contacting representatives personally
-working through groups of which they are members
-tweet |
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a group of individuals who are knowledgeable and have meaningful beliefs about an issue and who are more likely to write letters to the editor, engage in social media campaigns, contact public officials, or change their vote on the basis of this issue.
ex. abortion/pro-life, environment |
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| an unofficial ballot conducted as a test of opinion. |
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| a list of people forming a population from which a sample is taken. |
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| is the bias that results when respondents differ in meaningful ways from nonrespondents. Nonresponse is often problem with mail surveys, where the response rate can be very low. |
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a population is first segmented into mutually exclusive sub-groups then judgement is used to select the subjects or units from each segment based on a specified proportion. For example, an interviewer may be told to sample 200 females and 300 males between the age of 45 and 60. This means that individuals can put a demand on who they want to sample (targeting).
*bias = errors in forecasting |
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In the greatest upset in presidential election history, Democratic incumbent Harry S. Truman defeats his Republican challenger, Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York, by just over two million popular votes. In the days preceding the vote, political analysts and polls were so behind Dewey that on election night, long before all the votes were counted, the Chicago Tribune published an early edition with the banner headline “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN.”
Harry Truman was thrust into the presidency by Franklin D. Roosevelt’s death in 1945. Approaching the 1948 presidential election, he seemed to stand a slim chance of retaining the White House. Despite his effective leadership at the end of World War II and sound vision in the confused postwar world, many voters still viewed Truman as an ineffectual shadow of his four-term predecessor. He also antagonized Southern Democrats with his civil rights initiatives. Most were sure that Dewey would take the White House.
In the last weeks before the election, Truman embarked on a “whistle-stop” campaign across the United States in defiance of his consistently poor showings in the polls. He traveled to America’s cities and towns, fighting to win over undecided voters by portraying himself as an outsider contending with a “do-nothing” Congress. Truman, a one-time farmer who was elevated to the pinnacle of American politics because of his reputation for honesty and integrity, won the nation’s affection, and he narrowly won a second term. |
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Bias is a systematic error that can prejudice your evaluation findings in some way. So,
sampling bias is consistent error that arises due to the sample selection. For example, a
survey of high school students to measure teenage use of illegal drugs will be a biased sample
because it does not include home schooled students or dropouts. A sample is also biased if
certain members are underrepresented or overrepresented relative to others in the population |
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| In statistics, a forecast error is the difference between the actual or real and the predicted or forecast value of a time series or any other phenomenon of interest |
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is a method for selecting people for involvement in telephone statistical surveys by generating telephone numbers at random. Random digit dialing has the advantage that it includes unlisted numbers that would be missed if the numbers were selected from a phone book.
An important consideration in random digit dialing surveys is bias introduced by non-responders. Non-response bias can be a problem if responders differ from non-responders for the measured variables. For example, nonresponders may not have been contacted because they work multiple minimum-wage jobs. |
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| Computer-assisted telephone interviewing |
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| is a telephone surveying technique in which the interviewer follows a script provided by a software application. ... A computerized questionnaire is administered to respondents over the telephone. |
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| is a small quantity of something that accurately reflects the larger entity. An example is when a small number of people accurately reflect the members of an entire population. |
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| a small part or quantity intended to show what the whole is like. |
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| method is any method of sampling that utilizes some form of random selection. In order to have a random selection method, you must set up some process or procedure that assures that the different units in your population have equal probabilities of being chosen |
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is a sampling technique where the samples are gathered in a process that does not give all the individuals in the population equal chances of being selected.
*bias |
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| is the basic sampling technique where we select a group of subjects (a sample) for study from a larger group (a population). Each individual is chosen entirely by chance and each member of the population has an equal chance of being included in the sample. |
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| Systematic random sampling |
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| is a type of probability sampling method in which sample members from a larger population are selected according to a random starting point and a fixed periodic interval. |
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| a sample that is drawn from a number of separate strata of the population, rather than at random from the whole population, in order that it should be representative. |
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| is a sampling technique used when "natural" but relatively heterogeneous groupings are evident in a statistical population. It is often used in marketing research. In this technique, the total population is divided into these groups (or clusters) and a simple random sample of the groups is selected. |
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| provide valuable insight into the accuracy of your collected data. Put simply, a response rate refers to the number of people who completed your survey divided by the number of people who make up the total sample group |
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| error in a statistical analysis arising from the unrepresentativeness of the sample taken. |
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| refers to the percentage of all possible samples that can be expected to include the true population parameter. For example, suppose all possible samples were selected from the same population, and a confidence interval were computed for each sample. A 95% confidence level implies that 95% of the confidence intervals would include the true population parameter. |
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| Filter or Contingency Questions |
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| Sometimes you have to ask the respondent one question in order to determine if they are qualified or experienced enough to answer a subsequent one. |
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| is comprised of survey response options found in the questionnaire. Basically, response formats are divided into two types: structured and unstructured response formats. |
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| survey questions makes survey respondents choose a response option that indicates a definitive opinion. These questions eliminate Don't Know and Neutral response options, because they are designed to force respondents to express an opinion or attitude |
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is a method that requires the rater to assign a value, sometimes numeric, to the rated object, as a measure of some rated attribute.
A Rank Order scale gives the respondent a set of items and asks them to put the items in some form of order. |
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| primary effect and recency effect |
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| is a psychological phenomenon associated with memory that says that items at the beginning (primacy) and items at the end (recency) of a list or string of information are more easily recalled than items in the middle. |
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the circumstances that form the setting for an event, statement, or idea, and in terms of which it can be fully understood and assessed.
the parts of something written or spoken that immediately precede and follow a word or passage and clarify its meaning. |
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| includes all forms of survey error including sampling variability, interviewer effects, frame errors, response bias, and non-response bias. |
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| is any method of sampling that utilizes some form of random selection. In order to have a random selection method, you must set up some process or procedure that assures that the different units in your population have equal probabilities of being chosen. |
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| is generally the first poll taken in a campaign. It is often taken before a candidate announces their bid for office but sometimes it happens immediately following that announcement after they have had some opportunity to raise funds. This is generally a short and simple survey of likely voters. |
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| a type of poll repeated periodically with the same group of people to check and measure changes of opinion or knowledge. |
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| an ostensible opinion poll in which the true objective is to sway voters using loaded or manipulative questions. |
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| is political journalism of elections that resembles coverage of horse races because of the focus on polling data, public perception instead of candidate policy, and almost exclusive reporting on candidate differences rather than similarities. |
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| a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks for whom the voter plans to vote, or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks for whom the voter actually voted. |
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| In the United States, presidential job approval ratings were introduced by George Gallup in the late 1930s (probably 1937) to gauge public support for the President of the United States during his term. |
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| Political socialization occurs in many ways |
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Young children usually spend far more time with their families than with anyone else and thus tend to acquire the family's habits, beliefs, behaviors, and attitudes. For this reason, family tends to be the most important source of political socialization.
* The family, educational system, peer groups, and the mass media all play a role. |
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| is a lifelong process by which people form their ideas about politics and acquire political values. |
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| hold positions of power or influence within a system of government. |
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| When viewing people as all good, the individual is said to be using the defense mechanism idealization: a mental mechanism in which the person attributes exaggeratedly positive qualities to the self or others. |
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| establish (something, typically a practice or activity) as a convention or norm in an organization or culture. |
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