Falsifiable

can be proven false

Non-falsifiable

general, cannot be proven false

Truth

Falsifiable assertion that hasn't been successfully refuted

According to the book, to be interesting you must:

• be of concern to the listener
• contain information that would be difficult to obtain on your own
• must also be falsifiable

Frank Luntz

• best in the US right now
• focuses on the use of certain words

Shively

Falsifiable is more interesting

Drew Weston

•  The Political Brain
• Democratic problem: use heads not hearts

The Political Brain

Drew Weston's book

Democrats

voters are dispassionate and rational; calcualte their decision

Republicans

voters vote due to heart and party affiliation

content analysis

examines the use of words

(ex: God, Iraq, Freedom)

Interest Groups

Not engaged in the task of governing; different than political parties

Mission of Interest Groups

ensure that states follow certain  policies

(ex: NAACP, Union)

Problems with interest groups

• not all equally organized
• groups whose members who have more leisure are more organized
• concentrarted urban members are better organized
• producers are more easily organized than consumers
• some groups have special advantages
• successful groups lose democratic structure than when they started

Sectoral Groups

occupies a section of the market

Institutional Groups

originally set up for another reason

(ex: Red Cross)

Promotional Groups

organized around an idea or point of view

(ex: NAACP)

Tactics of Interest Groups

1. control information and experise
2. groups engage in electoral activity
3. use economic power
4. engage in public information campgains; educate to arouse public sympathy
5. groups can engage in violence or disruption
6. litigation

Litigation

Court Rulings

disruption

lay down in front of bulldozer

Violence

terrorism

Pluralism

groups are outside of the government

Neo corporatism

government calls on interest group to construct and implement policy

Republicans

Like smaller government

Democrats

like bigger government

Size of Government

money spent by government

total GDP

GDP

Gross Domestic Power

David Cameron

1978, "Expansion of the Public Economy"

According to Cameron, why has the industrial western democracy increaced in governmental size over time?

1.  as people prospered, their expectations of government and what it should provide increases
2. larger governments and economies use hidden taxes more effectively
3. Party competition in Industrial democracy leads to increase of services
4. bureucracies only grow, never die
5. globalization makes governing harder

Privatising

When the state no longer owns everything and people start to own more (ex: private property)

Nationalization

government decides a piece of the economy needs to be formed/controlled by government

Functions of Government

• Transfer resources
• subsidy
• regulate
• development and administration

Transfer resources

social security: transfers money from working age to older retirees

Subsidy

government resources are used to prop up a business or economic sector

(ex: farmers when their crops go low)

Regulate

•  prohibitions on certain crimes and directions on the conduct of business
• big now
• "Federal Register"

Development and administration

government does things best when it is not left to the market

(ex: military: public government function)

Militaries

US spends 34% of GDP on military

Russia spends 6%

Saudi Arabia spends 12%

North Korea spends 25%

Military Spending

Out of pocket: once its spent its gone

US is looking for ways to make cuts and privatize the military

Definition of Developmental Administration

things that we have come to believe the government should provide

4 parts of Developmental Administration

1. Defense (military)
2. Education
3. Research and Development
4. Healthcare and Social Welfare

Education

most countries feel it is ok to force people to pay for the education of the young

Benefits of education

• makes the economy stronger
• makes the democracy safer and stronger
• keeps kids off the streets

Best countries at science and math?

Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea

Research and Development

• necessity for countries in top levels of economic development
• US is at the top of this but going down quickly

Healthcare and social welfare

generally the more developed a country, the more it spends on HC/SW

Political Economy

• assume Nation's policy and shape of economy
• judgement over whether economy is healthy

How to tell if the economy is healthy?

1. Prosperity and growth
2. how well economic beneifits are distributed

per capita

GDP

Population

Top per capita in the world

1. Luxenburg
2. Norway
3. Ireland
4. US

How do you measure prosperity and growth?

GDP: total economic transactions in state in a year

How to increase the liklihood of economic prosperity according to Shively?

1. should limit rent seeking
2. limit import substitution

Rent seeking

transfer of resources not related to production; subsidy is often rent

Rent

money into the pocket of a favored group

Non-automists governments

countries with more successful rent-seeking

corrupt governments

extreme non-autonomists

IS (Import Substitution)

use of tarriffs, quotas etc. to protect domestic industry

Introventionalsits

countries that insert policy into economies (like import substituion)

increases possibility of economic growth

Inequality

unequal distribution of economic benefits

How to measure inequality

(% income earned by top 20%) - (% earned by bottom 20%)

Policies to lessen inequality

1. subsity and aid for the poor
2. progressive tax policies

Regressive taxes

opposite of progressive tax; equal tax no matter the income

How do you justify regressive taxes?

If you give more money to rich people, they save it, while poorer people spend it

Inflation

rise of prices making a currency worth less money, better if inflation is local

Causes of Inflation

•  deficit spending
• shortage of imported goods
• monopolies

Who does Inflation help? Who does it hurt?

Helps: those who are paying back debts

Hurts: people on a fixed income

unemployment

supply of jobs is insufficent to the number of willing workers

Full employment

wages rise, prices rise, inflation rises

How the government can fix unemployment

• generate jobs
• reduce interest rates
• fund education and research

Justice

People get what they deserve

Efficency

greatest good at least possible cost

Two connotations of Justice

substantive and procedural justice

Substantive Justice

by contribution or by need

Procedural Justice

Justice where you look at the process by which the outcome is produced

Features of Procedural Justice

roles and policies not arbitrary, understood ahead of time and no subset is not singled out

basic human rights

•  right to avoid death
• right to free speech
• right to privacy

Parties

not social movements,; they are official structures designed to participate in governing

Interest Groups

less official, designed to affect public policy

Social Movement

 an informal collected movement of people loosely coordinated in their acitons and using flexible tactics, with some sort of leadership group to give its actions coherency, increasingly important

(ex: civil rights movement, earth day)

Why are there more social movements now?

communication breakthroughs, new resources

Why do social movements taper off?

technology is not as new; reached objective; message overload; governmental restrictions

Advantages of Social Movements

• lack long time or established membership and so they can frame issues as they like
• lack structure, allows them to change tatics and can do whatever works at that point
• not bound by state borders or politics, can align with international organizations

Disadvantages of Social Movements

•  lack structure: needed to get resources (ex:money)
• SM's tend to be temporary

Original Major Powers

• France
• England
• Germany
• Italy

Reorganization after WWII

1.  former colonies gain independence
2. US and Soviet Union emerge as global power

Five factors that have changed things

1. Number of non-nation actors has increased
2. states of the world grew more independent
3. rivalry between US and Soviet Union with the rise of Japan, China, France and Germany
4. Emergence of open markets in more states
5. International Law developed in sophistication and authority

International Court

Rules over 139 nations in 2003, US still has not joined

How is International Relations "fluid"?

1. Multinational forces join up and end abuses and settle conflicts
2. US determines its interest and asserts itself

Peak Oil

point in which the increase demand can't be met by increase production

After Peak

increase in transportation cost, increase in inflation, decline in agricultural production; loss of agriculture will result in pockets of starvation

How do we prevent/slow down peak oil?

FIND A SUBSTITUTE!

engage in "resource wars" for oil

US vs China or Germany(EU) or India

International Politics

differnt features than country because there is no central authority

In international disputes, who solves them?

• negotiate: ambassadors
• War: lots but never between democratic countries

Fiduciary Role of State Leaders

creates a "callous" form of politics; can't worry about everyone

Kinds of Power

• military
• population
• Economic
• geographic
• leadership

Military Power

US is the best in that with 1.5 million people, Russia is next, then China, then India

Population

Generally more people means more power

Economic Power

more money is better; corporate headquaters inside borders; trade power

Geographic power

isolated or protected is more secure

(Ex: US)

Leadership power

respected leaders with intelligence or diplomatic skills

Ways to keep National Industries Strong in Old Trade Policy

• Tariffs
• Quodas
• Non-tariff trade barrier

Tariff

tax placed on a good by government as it crosses its borders

Quodas

limits on amounts of good that can be brought in from another country

Non-tariff trade barrier

mandate that a good in a country has to have a certain quality before it can be sold; limmits the amount of goods coming in

GATT

General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade

Law of Comparative Advantage

there is always a place where production of a good is least expensive or most efficent

Where does comparative advantage come from?

climate, shipping, cheap labor, less enviornmental restrictions, unsafe conditions

World Trade Organizaiton (WTO)

set up by GATT to settle world trade disputes

Malaysia vs US over sea turtles and shrimp

Narrowcasting

specific targeting of political messages via specific information about individuals