Term
| Why study the Bush 2000 and 2004 campaigns? |
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Definition
| competitiveness of race, close but not volatile, large number of battleground states, lots of data |
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Term
| What finding has shifted us away from campaigns? |
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Definition
| the finding that people do not follow politics |
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Term
| Where do voters get their preferences? |
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Definition
| from opinion leaders within their social groups. campaigns can affect individual voters and aggregate outcomes |
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Term
| Campaigns are means by which ____ are reactivated and linked to ___ |
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Definition
| partisan identities; vote choice |
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Term
| What is key to understanding election outcomes? |
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Definition
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Term
| What 3 characteristics of voter mobilization are important? |
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Definition
| 1 opinion leaders are critical to informing the less aware members of a group, 2 communication and differences between and among groups tend to be a function of the distribution of political awareness, 3 interpersonal communication remains vital, even as TV dominates |
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Term
| What is the minimal effects approach and which elections does it apply to and why? |
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Definition
| the minimal effects approach looks at factors outside of the campaign. it applies only to presidential campaigns because of the regulated spending limit, neither side has an advantage on strategic info, both candidates have equal amt. of experience, the candidates follow their opponent around |
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Term
| What is significant about the 1988 election? |
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Definition
| it prompted interest in legitimacy and consequences of negative electioneering, also consequences of negative advertising and failing to respond to attack ads, Bush & Dukakis, Bush said Dukakis was un patriotic and weak on crime. Dems were mad and didnt want to be Dukakisized in the future |
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Term
| Why is it hard to learn about past campaigns? |
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Definition
| Winners are secretive about success, losers disappear, they dont keep thorough records, shade their versions of what happened to protect themselves |
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Term
| What do we know since 1988? |
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Definition
| estimating the net effects of campaigns, estimating the information effects of campaigns, gauging the effects of specific campaign activities, identifying how candidates and campaigns approach the campaigns |
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Term
| What specific campaign effects work best? |
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Definition
| phone calls fail, face-to-face and direct mail is good and mobilization is the best |
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Term
| What are some charateristics of TV advertising? |
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Definition
| it seeks narrow, targeted effects, not large ones, negative advertising mobilizes partisans but depresses turnout among independents, negative ads lead to higher turnout |
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Term
| Which approach has the most influence? |
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Definition
| Coventions and candidate debates |
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Term
| Why does media coverage matter? |
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Definition
| it effects the impressions people have of the candidates and issues that can influence voter choice |
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Term
| What influences media coverage? |
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Definition
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Term
| What are candidates and campaign approaches really fighting for? |
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Definition
| they are fighting to set the agenda |
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Term
| What were the two big points to Daron Shaw's electoral college strategy? |
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Definition
| prioritize the states, allocate resources to the states most crucial to winning the minimum coalition. Campaigns wrongly identify states according to a "weighted view" |
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Term
| what are the 5 categories of states for campaigns? |
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Definition
| Base republican, lean republican, battleground, lean democratic, base democratic |
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Term
| What is the importance of a state affected by? |
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Definition
| Competitiveness, cost of TV advertising in that area, the amount of recent time there by the opposition |
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Term
| What is the offensive stategy? |
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Definition
| aggressive campaigning in battleground and lean opponent states |
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Term
| What is the defensive strategy? |
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Definition
| Lock up own lean states, and a handful of essential battleground states |
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Term
| What is the mixed strategy? |
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Definition
| go after most vulnerable own lean states, most promising battleground states and most susceptible opponent lean states |
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Term
| WHat is the focused/high risk strategy? |
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Definition
| go after the battleground states |
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Term
| What strategy did Shaw assume for the Bush campaign? |
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Definition
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Term
| What are the six key points for where and how heavily to campaign? |
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Definition
| past statewide voting history, contemporaneous polling numbers, organizational development and endorsements, the existence of other hot races or solid top of the ticket candidates, issues with cutting potential, native son effects |
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Term
| Which strategy is most affected by the poll numbers? |
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Definition
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Term
| Which strategy is most effected by the opponent's activites? |
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Definition
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Term
| Where do candidates spend their money versus their time? |
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Definition
| money goes to TV ads, time goes to appearances |
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Term
| Public list versus real real lists |
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Definition
| Reps "29" battleground or 15 battleground, Dems "21" battleground or 13 battleground. Only differences were West Virginia, Minnesota and California |
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Term
| What are some lessons from the 2000 and 2004 campaigns? |
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Definition
| measuring campaigns and their effects multiple times at multiple levels, the overlap between rep and dem plans is considerable but not perfect, secretive planning, tighter, leaner targeting |
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Term
| What are some trends in the TV ad allocations and candidate visits? |
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Definition
| Whether the state was a base, lean or battleground, competitiveness of state and cost of advertising, where the opponent was going |
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Term
| What are the campaign spending figures for 2000 and 2004? |
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Definition
| $206 million in 2000 and $248 million in 2004. More than 50 percent come from candidates individual campaigns |
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Term
| What were the spending comparisons in 2000? |
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Definition
Bush: $61 mill, RNC: $53 mill.
Gore: $47 mill, DNC: $31 mill. |
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Term
| How much more ad money did battleground states get than typical states? |
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Definition
| In 2000, typical got $4 million, and battleground got $8.6 million |
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Term
| Which party put more emphasis on TV advertising? |
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Definition
| Reps. they had more money |
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Term
| What did Dems put an emphasis on? |
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Definition
| individual level voter contacting, and supplement to union investments |
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Term
| How many TV ads did voters see btwn Aug 24 and Nov 6, 2000? |
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Definition
| Typical: 111, battleground: 142 reps and 115 dems |
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Term
| What is one possible reason why Reps made more campaign appearances? |
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Definition
| Reps made shorter stops while dems camped out |
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Term
| How do individual campaign interests vary from party interests? |
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Definition
| parties will be on air in states that are not critical to the candidates minimum winning coalition because they are supporting a base of their party or responding to state donors or supporting lower house candidates |
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Term
| What pattern can be found in the party's spending? |
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Definition
| GOP spending spikes early in October to reinforce media messages, but Dem spending fallsas dems marshal resources as debate coverage dominates |
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Term
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Definition
| The Dems matched Rep spending in the first week but then concentrated on a handful of states, allowing the reps to dominate elsewhere. dems had low profile in Oct. during the debates then matched rep TV ad buys from mid Oct to election day |
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Term
| What is the McGovern-Fraser Commission? |
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Definition
| Said that the nominating process should be open, timely and representative; states had to adopt processes consistent with guidelines to seated at 1977 convention, two permissable means to select delegates: primaries with 90% of state delegation bound or caucuses |
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Term
| How were nominations controlled before national requirements? |
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Definition
| the states controlled the nominations |
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Term
| What was the Mikulski Commission? |
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Definition
| 1972-1976 it eliminated open primaries for the purpose of selecting delegates; proportion allocation subject to threshold |
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Term
| What was the Winograd Commission? |
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Definition
| 1976-1980: raise threshold and shorten nominating process to help presumptive nominee Jimmy Carter |
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Term
| What was the Hunt Commission? |
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Definition
| 1980: Reaffirmed ban on open primaries for binding delegates and created super delegates |
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Term
| What was the Fairness Commission? |
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Definition
| 1984: allowed open primary on case-by-case basis. Expanded the number of super delegates |
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Term
| What are some things about the Republican Nominating process? |
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Definition
| It is more state centered. Reforms have been non-binding on the states except where ratified by the conventions which are the sole governing authority, state rep parties introduced binding primaries before dems. state election law in some cases has forced the hand of the Rep party to increase use of primary for delegate selection, simpler process, winner take all, no super delegates |
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Term
| What is the first stage of the nominating process? |
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Definition
| the invisible primary. occurs at least 2 years before formal nomination process. Identify supporters in early states, raise money, do polls |
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Term
| What is the second stage in the nominating process? |
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Definition
| Enter race. set up exploratory committee, raise money, enjoy frequent trips to Iowa, New Hampshire |
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Term
| What is the third stage of the nomination process? |
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Definition
| primaries and caucuses. democratic PR system lengthens nomination contest. Rep "winner take all" might shut down nomination process early |
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Term
| Who participates in the nomination process in the primaries? |
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Definition
| more committed, idealogical, more partisan than average |
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Term
| Who participates in the nomination process in the caucuses? |
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Definition
| people with strong opinions |
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Term
| Under old rules (not the primary process) what candidates were likely to be successful? |
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Definition
| bland nominees, long-term service to the party, someone who is known, has close ties to the states, places a premium on coming up in DC |
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Term
| What kind of candidates come from the primary process? |
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Definition
| They can literally come from out of nowhere |
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Term
| Why was Karl Rove called the Architect? |
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Definition
| He single-handedly built up the entire Bush motive and campaign |
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Term
| Where does political money come from? |
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Definition
| individuals, PAC's, political parties, corporations and labor unions |
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Term
| What is the significance of Buckley v. Valeo? |
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Definition
| (1976) Distinction between contributions and expenditures, expenditures are protected under first amendment but contributions are not |
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Term
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Definition
| Campaign contributions to candidates, candidate committees, federal campaign committees, and others that are subject to FECA regulations |
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Term
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Definition
| money contributed directly to political parties for party building activities. made illegal under bipartisan reform act in 2002 aka McCain Feingold |
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Term
| What is the McCain-Feingold Act? |
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Definition
| made soft money contributions illegal, banned certain types of electioneering by non party organizations 30 days before primary election and 60 days before general election |
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Term
| What does money buy you in and election? |
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Definition
| voice--name recognition, ability to get information out, relationship with voters |
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