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| Study of ordinary citizens and voters (individuals). What motivates their vote, etc. |
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| Study of broad electoral trends and institutions (congress, interest groups, political parties). |
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| How do we measure what goes through the ordinary voter's mind when they make a decision? |
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| Area probability cluster sampling |
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| Area Probability Cluster Sampling |
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| Dividing areas being polled into geographic units, randomly selecting people to poll based on population size and who they are within a household (wife/mother) |
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| Secondary-group Influences |
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| What demographic you are born into (independent of how you are raised). This says little about your decision making. |
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| What do we find from cluster sampling? |
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| People know very little about politics. |
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| Social background at birth is connected to party identification formed early in life, leading to partisan attitudes which process information on the bases of these previous criteria. |
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| What two factors influence partisan attitudes? |
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| People who pay attention to politics |
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| Do opinion leaders sway elections with their strong views? |
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| Media/personal influence of the importance of certain issues/topics on a voters mind, fill out details of candidates, and raise visibility of candidates. |
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| What does multiple regression analysis tell us? (3 things) |
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| Attitudes towards candidates are important, foreign policy is slightly Republican/domestic issues are slightly Democratic, and groups are typically pro-Democratic. |
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| A sense of belonging to a party and identifying with it. |
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| Is party identification stable? |
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| Yes, party identification rarely changes after it is formed in early life. |
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| Perceived major shifts in the electorate form Republican to Democratic based on any given election. |
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| Do realignment elections actually happen? |
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| No, party ID is stable, though our political attitudes may temporarily shift from a one candidate to another. |
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| Which comes first: cognition or affect? |
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| Affect (We know what we are long before we understand what we "are" means). |
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| If one does change political alignment, are they likely to be young or old? |
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| The idea that party ID is fixed but partisan attitudes (including attitudes towards our identities) can be altered. (Ex: many self-IDed Republican's looking for "change" voted for Obama in 2008). |
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| Does it make rational sense for individuals to vote? |
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| No. The costs of voting outweigh its benefits. (The chance of one person influencing any election is closer to zero). |
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| Idea that your vote matters and you can make change. |
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| Decision short-cuts, or a consistent set of beliefs (Democrat, Republican, left/right winged). |
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| Does consistent ideology exist? |
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| There is little correlation between ideologies. |
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| Interlocking configurations of attitudes held together by constraints or interdependence. |
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| 3 properties of Belief Systems: |
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| Constraint, centrality, and range. |
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| How connected political ideas are to each other |
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| Whether we think of ideas abstractly or specifically (American foreign policy vs. intervention to stop genocide in Darfur) |
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| The number of issues, great or small, that we attach significance to as individuals |
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| What are Belief Systems driven by? |
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| Psychology (general feelings of tolerance), logic (principles such as taxing/spending), and social background (where and with whom we grew up). |
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| According to Converse, what do constraints mean? |
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| A highly-structured, consistent belief system is rare. |
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| Policies that don't excite the attention of the public and have no consequence for public opinion |
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| Issues that influence public opinion (abortion, social security). |
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| What does the study of zone acquiescence show us? |
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| We can isolate certain issues and evaluate their macrotrends over time (asking whether people want more/less of something). |
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| Result of zone acquiescence studies over time, form an index which generally tends to favor or oppose all government activity. |
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| What does the public mood index tell us? |
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| A significant part (22%) of the public is symbolically Republican, but operationally Democratic. |
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| 22% of public that is symbolically conservative but operationally liberal. |
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| People are conservative in theory, but liberal in practice (or vice-versa). |
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| What is the significance of conflicted conservatives? |
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| They swing elections. They respond well both to conservative rhetoric and liberal programs. |
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| Economic optimism, the incumbent party that is in office, and media commentary. |
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| If the economy is in good shape, there will be more receptivity to liberal social goals and programs. |
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| Incumbent Party in Office |
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| Electorate moves in the opposite direction of the party in office. |
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| The media primes and frames issues never being more supportive than the party in office or more critical than the opposing party. |
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| According to public mood index, do elections matter? |
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| Yes, economic security produces liberal electoral outcomes, insecurity produces conservatism. |
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| What is the cycle of trends during a presidential term? |
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| Honeymoon period, decline during term, economic condition, and "Rally Round the Flag". |
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| Inflated approval rating a President enjoys when first entering office. (Mueller) |
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| "Coalition of Minorities" (President alienates lots of people who are the political losers when his legislation is passed, Downs), Expectations>Disillusionment (public expects more than what actually happens), "Brody press criticism" (Media starts out uncritical of President but becomes more skeptical and negative), "Equilibration" (Fixed high.low approval rating and they spend their time in office fluctuating between two) |
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| Where economy is/where it is headed |
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| "Rally Round the Flag" Effect |
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| Boost of support during times of international crisis, seen as a statesman instead of politician (patriotism) |
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| Keynesian (demand-side) Economics |
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| Economic slumps can be prevented by intervening in the market (spending ensure money is in circulation). Idea of multiplier effects. |
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| Keynesian concept that when a person spend it goes to the income of someone else who also spends, etc. |
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| More money being spent increase demand for consumer goods (stimulus). |
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| Focus on keeping taxes low for wealthier, who are more likely to save or invest their money. Savings lead to growth and productivity, which helps everyone. |
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| Supply-side Result (idea): |
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| Keynesians and Supply-siders are both wrong; monetary policy is key to economic growth. Too much money (inflation) or too little (deflation) is the problem. Controlling the rate of growth through how much is printed and adjusting the interest rate. |
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| Nordhaus Political Business Cycle |
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| Idea that democracies never follow optimal economic policy because they try to expand the economy leading up to elections (to win), only to suffer contractions due to inflation in the months after. |
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| Are consumers/investors able to anticipate what may happen to the economy and react accordingly? |
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| Yes, and they react before the economy actually fluctuates, making it hard for politicians to influence the process. |
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| Predicts where one should build a business (right beside/next to competitor). |
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| What is the order of the Funnel of Causality? |
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| Social background, party ID, partisan attitudes, vote. |
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| Is media more influential at the micro level or the macro level? |
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| Macro level, media at the micro level has little significance. |
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| Does ideology exist at the micro or macro level? |
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| Macro level. (Birds-eye view) |
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| What polling method is the least effective? |
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| What are two problems that afflict commercial surveys? |
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Definition
| The customer has no basis on which to evaluate quality of research. Doing it right is expensive, doing it wrong is profitable. |
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| Focusing on what was good or bad about governments. |
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| Study and explanation of what "is," not what should be. |
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| How do you select units to study? |
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| Variation, randomness, and number of units |
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| How many units do you need for a reliable study? |
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| Everyone has exactly the same change of being chosen. |
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| Sampling people from all one area provides atypical results (not random). |
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| Provides random samples, but those who chose to participate provides atypical results. |
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| What survey results can you trust? |
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| Polling firms and academic surveys |
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| Little substance, easily dissuaded |
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| What two factors contribute to why an individual votes the way they do? |
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| Interpersonal relations, group behaviors (long-term) Campaigns have little to no effect (schemata) |
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| Opinion Followers listen to Opinion leaders |
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| What secondary group shows significant association? |
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| Which political party promotes domestic policies and which party promotes foreign policies? |
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| Domestic issues slightly Democratic, foreign issues slightly Republican |
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| What are the six attitudes? |
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| GOP Candidate, Democratic Candidate, Domestic Policy, Foreign Policy, Parties as Group Representatives, Parties as Managers of Government |
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| Most important, most variable |
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| Varies and movies with economy |
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| Over-report for winner, differential salience, interpersonal influence, campaign events, and late decisions |
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| What can parents pass on to their children, what can they not? |
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| Party Identification CAN be passed, partisan attitudes CAN NOT |
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| Is "ticket splitting" increasing or decreasing? |
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| Conclusions and Arguments |
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| Details of arguments are not stored, but conclusions are |
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| Parties should aim towards the center of the spectrum to maximize partisans |
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| Difference in outcome between a Democratic victory and a Republic victory |
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| Four Components of Involvement |
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| Interest in campaign, concern over outcome, sense of efficacy, sense of citizen duty |
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| Used to measure ideologues |
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| One who demonstrates both language and understanding of politics |
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| One who demonstrates political language but lacks clarity or understanding |
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| Voters whose highest level of abstraction is commentary on what groups are helped or hurt by parties |
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| Voters who offer an appraisal of how things are going as their evaluation of candidates or parties (ex: Things are good, we should re-elect current president) |
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| Expression of preferences for policy alternatives that are entirely without meaning to the respondent |
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| Removing nonattitudes, predicting electorate |
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| Groups are more effective than individuals |
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| Public Policy Mood (definition) |
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| General tendency to favor or oppose all government activity |
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| Why are elections meaningful? |
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| Characterizes the marginal trade offs between inflation and unemployment |
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| Unemployment and Inflation |
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| High levels of both at the same time |
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