��Themes
 Spatial and temporal patterns of pop. distribution
 mplications of pop. distribution
Reasons of pop. distribution

 Approaches
 Scales of analysis
 Description, assessment, explanation, prediction

Data
 Census:
 Other statistics, survey data, interview dada

 Geo-demographics and marketing

The study of the characteristics of human populations

Sources of Information
Census
The count of the number of people in a country, region, or city
 

Vital Records
 Information about births, deaths, marriages, divorces, and the incidences of certain infectious diseases, labor, income, immigration, aboriginal people…

**Civil registration of births, marriages and deaths is a provincial responsibility

Population density
P.D. = total number of people divided by the
total land area (arithmetic density)

 Nutritional density: pop. v.s. the cultivated land
 Agricultural density:

Ecumene - habitable land area

• 60% of people live below 200 meters (650 feet) in elevation.
• 80% live below 500 meters (1,650 feet) 
• 2/3 of population lives within 500 kilometers (300 miles) of an ocean, most inhabit alluvial lowlands and river valleys.

Effects of regional conditions
-Biophysical conditions
-Climatic, geomorphologic, vegetation, etc.
-Regional accessibility

- Level of economic development
-Social and economic infrastructure
-Distribution of urban centers

 Population Structure

-population composition: its significance

-age structure (ie. baby boomers)

-sex structure (ie. women of childbearing age)

Age-sex pyramids
 Cohort: individuals sharing a common temporal
demographic experience. e.g.age group, time of
marriage, etc.
Construction of population pyramid

Aspects of Germany’s Age-Sex Pyramid
�� WWI & WWII male deaths
�� Birth deficits of WWI & WWII
�� Excess females in the wake of war
�� Postwar baby boom
�� Baby bust in the rapidly developing, and
now defunct, country of West Germany

Dependency Ratio and Implications of Ageing

Dependency Ratio

-measuring effects on economically productive
members of population
-Young cohort (< age 15), middle cohort (age 15 –
64), and old cohort (>= age 65)
-Dependent age groups in relation to potential labour force participants
-Sensitive to age structure

Dependency Ratio = [(P_0-14 + P₆₅₊)/P_15-64]*100

Implications of Ageing

-Youth decline
-Impact on education system
-Boomers
-Retirement
 -Impact on housing, recreational properties
- Goods & services
-Old age cohorts
-Gender
 -Health care
-Infrastructure
-Amenity

Policy and Age Structure

Pronatalism
-“baby bonus” in Quebec in 1990s
-daycare
-Productivity incentives
-Education
-Infrastructure
-Immigration
-Nontraditional countries
-Nontraditional regions

CBR - Crude Birth Rate

-Total number of live births in a year per 1000
people
Factors affecting level of CBR
-Level of economic development
-Education, cultural traditions and religious
background
-Population structure
-Availability of contraceptives
-Government policies on family planning

TFR -Total Fertility Rate

-average number of children a woman will have during her childbearing age (15-49)

*CBR is descriptive, TFR is predictive

-TFR slightly higher than 2 means stable population

IN CANADA: 1946-3.3/1986-1.67/2006-1.5

 -Niger is highest at 7.9

CDR - Crude Death Rate

-Total number of deaths per 1000 people

Factors affecting level of CDR
-Level of economic development and poverty
-Population structure
-Availability of health-care
-Social and occupation structure
-Government policies on family planning  

NGR -Natural Growth Rate

- Difference bet. CBR and CDR
-1.8 % means the population size will be doubled in
40 years

Life Expectancy

-average number of years an infant newborn can expect to live

-in canada, secular increase over time, and male/female gap grows over time

Infant Mortality Rate

-annual # infant deaths per 1000 live births-

-reduces life expectancy and population growth

-A sound indicator of health-care accessibility, maternity nutrition level, and general level of development

Demographic Transition Model

-The theory on the relationships among population
growth, industrialization, urbanization, and
development
Demographic transition Phases
�� Phase 1: stable pop. with high CBR and CDR
�� Phase 2: critical transitional phase, with high
CBR and declining CDR
�� Phase 3: moderate pop. Growth, with declining
CBR and low CDR
�� Phase 4: stable pop. with low CBR and CDR

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

-Historically verified generalization

- But is it a good guide to the future?
- Industrialization, urbanization, skills development & capital formation, universal education
- “The best contraceptive is development”
- “The best contraceptives are contraceptives!”

Mobility:
-ability to move, permanently or temporarily

Migration:
-emigration – move from a location
-Immigration – move to another location
-International or internal

Gross migration:-total numbers of migrants move into and out of a place

Net migration:
-difference between in-migrant and out-migrants
in a place during a certain period

Push factors:
-impel individuals to move from a location
Pull factors:
-attracting individuals to a particular location

***both voluntary and forced migration exist***

 **Migration can exist internally** (ie. rural-urban migration)

Theory - 1798

-Geometric growth of population due to human sexual practices
-Arithmetic growth of food production due to limits of resources
-Over-population, negative checks, positive
checks

-Industrialization & displacement of agricultural workers
-Urbanization & Poor Laws
-Phase 2 of demographic transition
-“power of the population is indefinitely greater
than the power of the earth to produce subsistence”

TWO Postulates:

1)Food is essential to human survival

2)Passion between the sexes is constant

Preventative check – “moral restraint”
Positive checks – Pestilence, war, famine & death

Neo-malthusian perspectives
Threats to earth’s resources

Economic perspectives

 Technological development
Human ingenuity and creativity

Political-economy perspective

 Distribution of resources

Population- resource equation
-The social organization of resource scarcity
-Technical and cultural appraisal of nature
-The standard of living of the population
-The number of people

Over-population, underdevelopment, and
environmental degradation.

Targets of population policies
-Reducing fertility rate: pop growth

-Regulating population migration: pop distribution

Implementation programs
-Family-planning
-Provision of contraceptives
-Education to women
 

Picturing future population