Shared Flashcard Set


Global 120 Final
Nash, Spring 2010
International Studies
Undergraduate 2

Additional International Studies Flashcards




Ambrose and Binkley

Cause of Cold War
-Ideology as a pretext to defending national interests
-East and West wanted “friendly” gov’ts in E. Europe
    -to use as corridor to invade Russia and West
-led to cold war.


Soviet views and goals during Cold War:
-soviet leaders and citizens saw world as battleground
    -socialism vs. capitalism
    -gain by one = loss by other
-soviet model not popular in rich capitalist countries
    -so USSR focused on spreading communism in third world
    -helped anti-western nationalist movements


Containing communism
-US and USSR had to tolerate one another b/c of MAD
-US contained communism by reinforcing democracy and capitalism
    -economically (marshall plan)
    -militarily (NATO, SEATO, baghdad pact)
-prevented USSR from trading or invading other countries
    -so it would collapse under own weight
-US also supported communist leaders sick of soviet bosses
    -ex: mao in china


Chinese Communists
-home grown
-popular b/c of fighting japanese invaders in WWII
    -more popular than satellite regimes in e. europe
-unlike USSR, peasants could control communal village lands
    -developed local industries
    -specialized in consumer goods (easier to export/modernize than soviet heavy industry)
-lack of chinese central bureaucracy reduced resistance to economic reform (market socialism)




Third World communist leaders
-most anti-communist leaders were former European colonial power collaborators
-home grown communists were popular as a result
    -ex: ho chi minh in vietnam
    -viewed as nationals, not communists
-US leaders didn’t understand this
    -Pres. Johnson pushed Ho deeper in Soviet camp


Islamists resent European colonialism & its legacy- SECULAR NATIONALISM.

  •     -foreign ideology
  •     -divides people
  •     -replaces Islam w/ identity based on language/territory.

Islamists don’t like Western support for corrupt ME regimes

  •     -can’t provide for citizens (justice, welfare, independence)
  •   Islamist aims local/national, not global
  •     -Al Qaeda is an exception.
  •     -divided societies (Lebanon) and repressive regimes make more extremist.
The rule of God must replace the rule of Man, which always leads to injustice. Holy War (Jihad) is necessary, since the forces that prevent people from submitting to the God’s law are bound to resist Islamization. Christians and Jews can be tolerated but their religion must not influence lawmaking process.

Islamism =

  •     reaction against division of Muslim world into colonies and then artificial nation states led by western interest despots
  •     reaction against west’s double standard of tolerance for israelis, indian (kashmir) and russian (chechnya) repression of Muslims and intolerance of repression by muslims (iran, iraq).
Economic and political neglect Upper Egypt by Nasser and his successors brought opposition to the Egyptian government. Since this government depends so much on Western support, attacking Western presence (tourists, pro-Western politicians) is the best way to destabilize it.

post WWII:
    -US sided with pakistan against afghanistan
        -so: afghanis had to rely on soviet military help
    -afghans had civil war against soviet dominance
        -soviets occupied anyways
    -US used pakistan/saudi allies to train anti-soviet afghanis
        -soviet pulled out of afghanistan
    -once soviets gone, US stopped helping afghani resistance movement
        -afghanistan = chaos
        -taliban took power (seen as only ones to provide order).


Iranian Revolution:

  • CIA/ British 1953 coup overthrew PM Mossadegh (PM wanted to nationalize British-owned Iranian oil).
  • emperor Reza Shah took over and eliminated all political opposition except Shia Muslim Clergy

             shia clergy had tradition of popular resistance and was only force able to govern.

  • iranian revolution was reaction against Shah’s dictatorship

                was a mix of religious revival (morality on politics) and nationalism (anti-western)


Bush Doctrine
-USA has moral duty to build democratic world order
    -so nations can compete through trade, not force
-preemptive strikes and regime change needed
    -prevents anti-demo states from threatening US through terrorism
-tested US institutions are best models
-BUT: removing dictators can bring new ones, US experience was often hypocritical (anti-liberal), and empire building reinforces anti-demo forces at home (censorship).


US dominates after 1991, so enemies rely on terrorism.
-us polices more regions (causes resentment cycle)
-bush jr.’s advisers pushed a democratic blueprent to prevent future conflicts
-but also said democratization abroad can hurt US national interests (create costly wars).

Power and Principles of Foreign Policy

-Flexible to adapt to changing reality
-based on moralizing principles to guide policy makers
-ensure support at home and abroad
-can create “Blowbacks” - long-term adverse effects
    -created by beliefs in own rhetoric
-blind belief in principles can cause costly entanglements.

Lantis & Moskovitz

Powers of US Presidency
-limited after Vietnam
-expanded after 9/11
    -b/c of popular pressure on congress
    -created Office of Special Plans (staffed by political neoconservative appointees)


Osama bin Laden
-former US ally
-turned against US during 1991 first Gulf War against Saddam’s Iraq
    -Laden saw American soldiers stationed in Saudi Arabia, helping Saudis fight Iraq (another Muslim country)


Iran wants to nuclear weapons
-would make regional ‘balance of power’ w/ nuclear US and Israel
-nuclear Iran feared by Israel and Oil-rich Arab royal families
    -families would be overthrown by Iran-supported Islamist rebellions
-Iran’s nuclear developments hard to destroy (underground bunkers)
    -bombing Iran can turn muslims against US-friendly mideast regimes.


Iran suspicious of Al-Qaeda and Taliban
-Al-Qaeda and Taliban oppose Iranian Shias (call it heretic)
-Iranian presidents tried to ally w/ US against taliban in 90’s
-peace between israel & palestinians would bring US & Iran closer against Al-Qaeda & Taliban
    -by marginalizing anti-US revolutionary Guards group in Iran.


Bush administration Office of Special Operations
-secretly supported anti-gov groups in Iran
    -groups under-represented national (Kurds, Baluchis), political (communist), or religious (sunni) minorities.
    -some listed as terrorist groups, linked w/ al-qaeda
-US army concerned that OSP skips military chain of command.


Sharp vs. Sticky Power
-Sharp : military force
-Sticky (building econ systems reflective of US values/norms).
    -recommended, would attract countries to it.
    -relies on attractiveness of political culture/ideas, not force.

The Economist

-wants to sound more receptive to Muslim accusations of US arrogance/double standards
    -so pressures Israel to stop building settlements on Palestinian land
-trying to isolate muslim extremists
    -so says ordinary muslims are often victims of extremist terrorists’ acts
-criticized for reducing support for democratization of muslim societies.

Working Class
Marx's Views on Russian Revolution
Communist Revolution needs large industrial working class (proletariat) and a capitalist (or market) economy, but Russia had small proletariat and weak capitalist economy in 1917. thought a lot about the capitalist system, but did not tell us much about the communist system.
much borrowing from other thinkers- no blueprint.
Characteristics during Czar Nicholas II
Autocracy, Feudalism, Peasantry.
“patrimonial” system of gov’t. no constitutional rights, the state is virtually the ‘private property’ of the ruling dynasty
no free elections or free press
authoritarian regime=dictatorship (free arrests, etc.)
(though the 1905 elections allowed for the emergence of a political counter-elite who demanded more legal rights for the people)
political and economic power were in the hands of a small aristocracy who:
controlled most of the farmlands
made up the bulk of the army’s officer corps
discouraged industrialization and democratization out of fear of getting more taxed and losing political dominance
Result: pre-1917 russia had a small business class and a limited middle class (the traditional power base of modern democracy).
majority of the population: poor, illiterate peasants, who were mostly serfs (semi-slaves) until 1861.
agrarian economy, centered on communal property in the most populous of the country
peasants lived on communal land, no respect for private property.
industrial sector is small, largely foreign-owned.
consequences: lack of a strong and skilled working class that could support social-democratic parties (like in Europe).
Lack of legitimacy
small, mafia-like group of revolutionaries which took control of the Russian state during chaotic post-Czar Nicholas conditions.
Russia’s Non-marxist influences in 1917
Populism and Anarchism, which Bolsheviks borrowed from to gain support among Russians.
relying on the peasants’ support (and not only workers) to overthrow the czar
using a small party of profesional revolutionaries to manage the state after the revolution
popular, grass-root Democracy based on councils (Soviets)
marx also vague about what kind of presence workers should have
what happened in the 1930’s. Government by a revolutionary elite (communist party), which allowed Lenin and his successor Joseph Stalin to limit the power of Soviets and turn their backs on peasants by nationalizing agriculture.
Flaws of the Totalitarian Regime
lack of democracy and therefore of government accountability, led to widespread corruption
rule by a single party paved the way for the rule of the ‘nomenklatura’, or ‘red bourgeoisie’, an elite of communist party-approved opportunistic bureaucrats who accumulated top jobs and access to goods otherwise unavailable.
top leaders like leonid brezhnev could steal from state enterprises for their own profit, and formed a real mafia, who stayed in power with the help of the KGB, but also by ‘buying’ workers’ support with subsidies to inefficient enterprises.
dictatorship- could do whatever they want.
Cause of Bolshevik Dictatorship:
the ‘Siege Mentality’
The ‘Siege Mentality’
us against the world: the russian communists justified their dictatorship by saying that the czar’s partisans (‘whites’) would use elections and free press to regain power.
since the goal of the new Soviet state was to support the worldwide revolution of workers against capitalism, capitalist states were expected to invade Russia to overthrow the Bolsheviks.
The ‘siege mentality’ led to totalitarian rule enforced by the all-powerful secret police, the NKVD (later KGB)
90 day seige- cold, hunger, darkness, disease, German shelling.
Roosevelt’s helper sent in as ambassador to USSR- talked to Stalin.
Soviet Union now seen as new ally. US aid to USSR.
Obstacles to Worldwide Revolution
in spite of its success in Russia, the bolshevik revolution failed to spread abroad (its main goal)
in the end, this weakened the soviet state’s legitimacy
name U.S.S.R. alone- not russia as an all encompassing state. name is a program.
USA excited for revolution, thought it was end of dictatorship, czars, etc. Russia changes, but really stays the same.
Bolshevik’s Failure to export communism abroad
communism gained little support in Western capitalist countries’ middle classes, workers (who have union rights) and farmers (who are ‘businesspeople’!). ex. in Germany 1918, the Communist revolt (spartakists) failed.
Russia’s national minorities (poles, balts, ukrainians, georgians, finns) who declared independence in 1918 feared that the soviets’ promises of social reforms was only a pretext to force them into russia again.
nationalism- major impediment.
Flaws of a State Economy
the soviet policy of fixing prices and wages and nationalizing all private business (including farming) removed incentives to make businesses profitable (no matter what you do- sit up, lie down, will get paycheck)
full employment policy (no risk of losing your job) made russians and eastern european workers increasingly unproductive
state planning of all economic activity disrupted the law of supply and demand and led to shortages of indispensable goods.
Soviet Russia in the Cold War:
unlike america, soviet russia was devastated by TWO world wars, and had to rebuild its cities and factories, without any US aid.
during the cold war, soviet russia needed a big, costly army to support puppet regimes in eastern europe and in the third world, like in afghanistan.
during the cold war, soviet russia had to spend on defense to prepare for a war on two fronts: against the US, and China (ironically, a communist state!)
Outcome: soviet russia had to spend more for defence than the US with a much weaker economy.
The Fall and Reform Attempts of the Soviet Economy
by the 1980s, the soviet economy was falling behind that of the capitalist world in terms of productivity, standards of living, and military technological innovation.
in 1986, the last soviet leader, mikhail gorbachev, tried in vain to overhaul the soviet economy.
Gorbachev’s Reforms (1986-1989)
New thinking: reducing military expenses: pulling troops out of eastern europe and afghanistan, reducing nuclear missile stockpikes (START treaty), stopping support to communist revolutions abroad.
Perestroika: cutting subsidies to inefficient firms, encouraging joint ventures with foreign companies and allowing state enterprises to keep part of their profits and even allowing individuals to set up small private enterprises.
glasnost: phasing out repression and media censorship to gain public support against Communist Party members who oppose reforms.
Consequences of Reforms
End of Red Empire, Soviet Disunion, End of Communist Rule
End of Red Empire (1989-1991)
w/o soviet military backing, communist regimes (puppet regimes) in eastern europe collapsed (1989). This inspired non-russian national minorities inside the USSR to demand independence.
cutting subsidies to old firms ended the soviet ‘social contract’ (safe jobs in exchange for political obedience), and angered workers, who stopped supporting the Soviet regime.
1991: The soviet disunion
in 1991, hard-line communist leaders tried to revive the communism system.
they failed, because the end of censorship (glasnot) allowed soviet citizens to see that capitalism worked better economically.
End of communist rule
the brightest soviet leaders, including many from the KGB (like current prime minister of russia Vladimir Putin), allied with anti-communist leaders like Boris Yeltsin, and outlawed the communist party.
can’t do things like gorbachav, piece by piece. must do major overhaul.
in december 1991, the USSR was officially dissolved into 15 independent states, with russia being the largest.
Where is Communism Today?
still the official ideology of China, N. Korea, Vietnam, Laos, and Cuba
it still presents the same flaws as in soviet russia: corruption, repression, and censorship
yet none of these states intend to spread communism worldwide, and almost all allow for some capitalism.
communism is also encouraged in countries like Hugo Chavez’s Venezuela, mostly as a protest movement against globalization and US domination: today’s communist leaders are in fact mostly nationalistic (or national-communists’).
Stalin's effect
when the communist regime took over (lenin), there was a civil war. throughout time, trying to overtake country. lenin dead by 1924 after stroke.
stalin preparing self to take over, not very popular, but he wanted to transform russia- change how nation functioned.
throughout life- almost as if he declared war against russia bc he wanted to change it so drastically
when communism took over- very little industrialization controlled by russians. only forced industrialization.
stalin- used forced labor- slave labor, to build railroads, subways, modernization.
modernization at the expense of consumer goods, and nationalized agriculture: so farmers wouldn’t put themselves out to produce, not enough production
emphasis on “heavy” industry (trucks, military equipment)
economy controlled from top to bottom.
Russia emerged post WW2 as a super power- better jobs, healthcare, military, homes, etc. post-communism.
Stalin- horrendous excesses. age of terror, very oppressive.
Working Conditions and the Depression in the US and Russia
Changes in working conditions: unionization, regularization of the workplace.
ex. Depression in US- disaster for all, but have gov’t with a long history of producing for the public, having the public’s confidence. FDR- inspiring words, public believed in him.
same depression in germany- young democratic republic- same republic which signed repressive treaty. result: Hitler takes over.
Information technology
could not advance military/technology if you were still registering typewriters to people. outside world influenced inside.
to gorbachev’s last days- was a communist. just wanted a different kind of communism- restructuring, reform.
Russian Revolution of 1917
Americans excited, thought it meant the end of dictatorship, czars, etc.
Russia changes, but really stays the same.
November 1933
US rep visits Communist Russia- entertained by the Kremlin, naive excitement. US wanted to help Russia, but we had just been attacked by Japan/Pearl Harbor, had to support old ally (England) first.
blood vs. material wealth. who is really suffering.
90 day seige- cold, hunger, darkness, disease, German shelling.
Roosevelt’s helper sent in as ambassador to USSR- talked to Stalin.
Soviet Union now seen as new ally. US aid to USSR.

Once Hitler opened WWII, no one was strong enough to defeat him alone. needed all, and for soviet union to take the largest burden.
US opens second front
Red Army going into Poland.
could we have prevented Russian dominance in E. Europe by stressing it at Yalta?
not really- they had military placement.
Moscow Victory Day- May 8
common victory = common peace? both had defeated same enemy
but both Russia and US had become conflicting superpowers, with different goals and beliefs.
Stalin’s stroke and death
funeral, 3 minutes of silence, and then off to a new year- happy music, feeling as though things could be changed.
The Space Age
Sputnik- destroyed stereotype that Soviets were incompetent in handling mechanical things. Launched first satellite.
Kruschev and Nixon debates
“your grandchildren will live under communism!”, arms war- each superpower had way too much power, too much force to use.
nuclear superpowers, missiles from satellites.
Soviets visit US & vice versa.
Kruschev visits IBM plant, farming, etc.

Spy plane shot down, destroys Washington-Moscow relations. sets it back almost 10 years. President accepts responsibility for it.
so: US does not visit soviets.
August 1961
Berlin Wall put up. firm image of the Iron Curtain.
Cuban missile crisis
Kruschev puts missiles in Cuba, quickly shifts world power.
US puts embargo on Cuba- no imports/exports/etc.
Negotiations- Partial Nuclear test ban treaty- US must pull missiles out of Turkey (we were going to anyways), and promise not to invade Cuba.

Both US and Russia come into power relatively late, so sets stage for rivalry. just part of the situation.

Detente- doesn’t mean you agree.
Nixon's views
elected in very strong anti-communist views, but dealt with them in a very pragmatic way.

No good to argue ideological points in a political setting- childish and useless.
major difference in attitude from 60’s to 70’s
can no longer plan war. would be mutually assured destruction for both sides.
The purges destroyed the overwhelming majority of the soviet elite
of 1,966 delegates to the seventeenth party congress (feb. 1934), 1,108 were killed (56.3%)
of 136 central committe members elected at the congress, 98 were killed = 70.8% others committed suicide
85% of provincial party secretaries perished in the purges
in the red army, 1/3 of the officer corps was executed including: marshals, etc.
Mao's Views
Mao disagreed with Marxist-Leninist views that communist revolutions have to be carried out by the urban proletarians.
Mao’s views encountered Skepticism
who would have thought peasants would be good partners for revolution?
The Long March 1934-35
disease, many soldier deaths, not many made it.
Sino-Japanese War 1937-1945
japanese invaded china in 1937- temporarily got communists under Mao and others under Check to organize against Japanese.

Mao wanted to conquer imperialism, feudalism, and bureaucratic.
trying to unite the country, give it some kind of goal for development.
Chinese Communists Triumphant 1949
The Great Leap- 1958-1960
The Sino-Soviet- late 1950’s-late 1980s
Mao’s ideas about communism differed from Russian ruler.
Retreat from the Great Leap- 1961-1965
economic program aimed at mobilizing all people in countryside to cities to start industrializing.
always a struggle towards ideology- how to shape country.
The Cultural Revolution- 1966-1968
aimed at re-educating people, sending people to countryside who had not done manual labor to learn.
but: US did not recognize China.
1972- Nixon visited China, C wanted us to recognize one china (people’s republic), but we were still visiting Taiwan, where Chang Psi Check had fled.
Mao tried to reform- there was never an all out-ownership of everything in the state. Russia went extremely far, China never had this.
The Impact of Mao’s Death September 8, 1976
had faced a lot of opposition from rightists/leftists

(issue- who lost China? US send a million men to fight for Chinese Nationalists, who didn’t have the support of the people.)
Mao organizes forces and forms communist regime.
China After Mao
Post-Mao Reforms, Tiananmen Square Pro-Democracy Movement, China's Economic and Political Systems
Post-Mao Reforms
begin to see China slowly opening up to the rest of the world, esp. the west
first example- 1972 Nixon visiting China.
recognition that C needed to give people in countryside incentive to be more productive.
by now, communism in shambles in Europe- Berlin Wall has fallen, E. Euro countries beginning to break away and choose own gov’ts.
In C, youth interested in change/democracy
Tiananmen Square Pro-Democracy Movement
1989, had statue called “Lady Liberty” like our statue of liberty.
C regime moved quickly against the people, even though people thought that the people’s army wouldn’t. Deaths, etc.
China’s Economic and Political Systems after Tiananmen
Although ideology is communist, regime is authoritarian, it is actually a capitalist system in terms of economics.
Currently, US is indebted to China. “made in China”.
Chinese took seat in UN, Taiwan became Taiwan, Reagan had a “Two China Policy”, but had to reform this.
Recession has hurt chinese as well as american and european workers (Greece on verge of bankruptcy).
Cold World War
Interesting to look at polarization of world- US vs. Soviets.
As 3rd world countries were emerging from under imperialism, the West was trying to get them side with us, and Soviets with them.

2 other wars that developed that were directly related to Ideology.
War has many facets to it- usually never one single reason/fault.
but for Korea/Vietnam war, one overarching reason- ideology and fear of the US, preventing communism from spreading around world.
occupied by Japan, once J defeated, US and Soviet Union inherited what J had.
Korean peninsula divided into two segments- N and S at 38th parallel
N instituted communist regime, we instituted democracy in South.
Disruption in Korea
N. koreans passed 38th parallel into S and caused invasion
thought that N. koreans would not have done it on their own w/o some encouragement from others. (but who/why/how?)
1949/50- US establishes NATO, which was a major irritant for the Soviets. we were helping W . Germany, and many other Euro Countries through the Marshall Plan.
Secretary of State gave speech outlining US interests in the Pacific- left out Korea (purposely or inadvertently?)
At first, thought it was Mao Tze-Dong, most rejected this idea outright. He had own issues with establishing superiority over all of China.
2nd possibility- N. Koreans did this on own- not a popular theory
3rd- Stalin encouraged it- he closed roads to Berlin blockade in 1948, US closed blockade in 1949, Stalin was also mad w/ our policies towards W. Germany, and thought we didn’t do enough during WWII.
Stalin’s policy of containment- thought it was convenient to encourage N. Koreans to invade South.
cannot be proven, but likely scenario.
June 25, 1950
S. Korea in dire need for help once invasion began.
US president on vacation, immediately returned home. US State Dept. began preparing policy.
WWII ended in 1945, US had no desire to go to war yet again. Congress declares war, no chance of this at this time.
called it “police action” through the UN, to seek a resolution through the security council (composed of 12 member nations, now 15 members today. 5 of these members are permanent members with the right to use veto- China, Soviet Union, US, France, England/Great Britain- but for China, people’s republic was not represented)
US got resolution passed w/o anyone using veto- because Soviet Union was boycotting the security council at that time.
Resolution for pushing the N. Vietnamese above the 38th parallel.
US asked general macarthur to furnish as much military equipment as possible to S. Korea, establish air cover in order to evacuate Americans in S. Korea.
US asked to head the movement
but S. Koreans were really main actors in the movement.
General MacArthur was main leader, was to report to US.
US was obligated to inform the UN of their progress- were to push the N. Koreans above the 38th parallel.
US contributed over 50% of ground troops, navel forces, and 93% of air force. S. Korea had 40% ground troops, 7% navel, 6% air force. So, other contributions were extremely small.
Entire movement called “police action”
General MacArthur says that N. Koreans have been very bad
so, believed that we could go through Korean Peninsula, unite the two sections, and create a democratic Korea.
also believed that we should interfere w/ China, and possibly use nuclear weapons.
and that if he got close to chinese borders, they would not fight or respond- but we didn’t know much about China. Assumed that they would be nice to us after we helped them. This did not happen.
US strategy full of misunderstanding, misconception
Chinese respond with an attack that highly damaged General MA, but this did not stop him.
chinese attacked, but then pulled back-
War continued, Eisenhower ran on platform of ending Korean War
2 million people died- was just an undeclared war, largely for ideological reasons.
full of mistakes, misunderstandings, misconceptions.
US still has troops on borders- presence between N and S korea.
Ultimately, a major confrontation and war, although it initially had a lot of support- there are some justifications for us entering Korean war in 1950.
This Korean war ultimately decided what we did during later wars.
War we did not anticipate to last this long
called a “greek tragedy in 5 acts”- because 5 different presidents participated in it.
When french were fighting in vietnam, after WWII, us was encouraging allies to give up their territory, let tribes live on own.
Truman’s Stance on Vietnam
initially- thought french should give indochinese their independence.
Ho Chi Minh- in N. Vietnam, educated in France, very smart, exposed to US Constitution/political system, and was highly impressed by US system.
described as “sweet guy”
Vietnam: Truman's stance all changed
US thought soviets should leave E. Europe, but Soviets saw it as a necessary buffer.
Warsaw Pact
Truman changed mind during Korean invasion.
This was not a war of independence for Vietnam/S Asia- was a war to keep out communism.
Truman started war to keep French out of Vietnam- not much support, but continued to increase.
Eisenhower leaves office
support for war continued, by time Eisenhower left office, US was supporting the entire war effort of the French in Vietnam.
French even asked US to bomb N. Vietnamese, but we refused- they even asked for atom bomb to stop Vietnamese from fighting them.
We refused to fight/bomb, but we did pay their entire military bill
Meeting during Vietnam War
Ho Chi Minh, Chinese, US all present, agreed that French took the defeat (they took it well and moved on).
agreed to have elections in Vietnam in one year, to vote on future.
This never happened.
Labels for the Middle East
“The Middle East” term created by British after WWII.
-previously “the Near East”
-widest definition includes Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Saudi Arabia (and all of arab peninsula), Iran (not an arab country), Iraq, Turkey (not an arab country), Jordan, Israel, Cyprus, Pakistan (a new addition because of modern issues, before included as south asia), Afghanistan.

I. Islamist groups widely labeled as terrorist groups in the US.
Islamist terrorists are not the only terrorists in the world, and most are not widely religious.
-“the assassins”- hashashi in the 12th century
Definition of terrorism?
A. inflicting fear upon civilian and non-civilian populations
UN definition: an adjective: an act intended to cause death or serious bodily harm to civilians or non-combatants with the purpose of intimidating a population or compelling a government or an international organization to do or abstain from doing an act.
there are exceptions- aims at terrorizing and achieving some ends (release hostages, prisoners), and at changing policies, publicity.
terrorists: a group of people who engage in acts of terrorism.
types of terrorism
domestic terrorism:
A. timothy mc.bay bombings of federal gov’t-
IV. terrorism can be religious (Sunni vs. Shi’a), ethnic
can terrorize against own population.
V. states sponsor own terrorism through acts of proxy
-support financially, politically.
-state itself does not get involved.

VI. international terrorism- act of terrorism by one country against the citizens of another country
-ex. Taliban supporting Al-Qaeda
terrorists’ only weapon is terrorism itself
unable to get what they want through normal means (warfare, political process)
mobilize, use propaganda, intimidation, media to attract attention to their plight, goals, and grievances.
late 1970’s and 80s- hijacked civilian airplanes. most of the time- succeeded in crime.
forced to negotiate with terrorists in order to save lives, but this encourages them to continue this form of terrorism.
Israel-Lebenon terrorism
took South Lebanese prisoners, some kidnapped, including Shi’a cleric. 1984- relatives of prisoners hijacked a TWA plane and attempted to land it in Lebanon with their demand to release prisoners.
UN limited/stopped hijacking by imposing sanctions against countries that harbor hijackers (allow them to land on territory)- planes not allowed to fly to any other country, or accept planes from other countries.
Lebanon turned off airplane lights, pilot landed anyways. Demanded food/water. killed american marine, got fuel/food/water. Flew to Tunisia- they allowed landing/fuel. US/Israel claim no negotiations occured, but sometimes happens behind the scenes to save lives.
Trends in Terrorists
-huge increase in terrorist groups- not all Islamic.
-Croatian, Japanese, Latin American, German, Italian, etc.
-terrorists seem to have connections with each other.
-gravitate to each other, crave media attention, can be tracked through cell phones.
-many are well-educated, some are engineers, lawyers, professionals.
-need organization- provides refuge, training, financial resources, etc.
-exhibit same loyalty seen in soldiers in a platoon.
-religious life, training, etc.
Terrorist groups
-essential to maintain group, keep together.
-suicide bombers:
-victims are not forewarned- use their death to notify gov’t.
-don’t call selves terrorists- called martyrs, freedom fighters, working/standing for right cause.
-Islamist groups- following the will of god, will be rewarded in heaven. self-sacrifice.
1983 Beirut Terrorist attack
man got into vehicle full of explosives, drove to Beirut int’l airport.
-american marines sent there to facilitate plane departure,
-man sat in car for 15 minutes knowing that it would explode and kill him and american marines.
-shows conviction, belief in will of god.
-killed 241 american marines.
-this is an exception- killed combatants for once.
-shows how difficult it is to define terrorism.
Terrorist profile:
-normally young male (22-23)
-very religious
-all terrorists in Israeli prisons have had unpleasant first-hand experience with Israeli soldiers/settlers in West Bank. (property loss, etc.)
-sexually frustrated (Islam does not allow sexual acts before marriage)
-do not have money to begin own family
-often leave videos for families
Terrorist Profile Exceptions
-example: two women, neither religious, one an attorney in mid 20’s
-turned into successful suicide bomber
-cousin, uncle, brother all killed by Israeli forces in childhood
-assumed act of vengeance.
-one woman, seamstress, quiet, supported family, didn’t come home one day.
-successful suicide bombing (higher # of victims, more successful act)
-Osama bin Ladin
born 1956 in Saudi Arabia, known as mastermind of 9/11.
-father from Yemen, lived in Saudi Arabia, famous builder, involved w/ royal family, well-off. had 54 children.
-Osama not always anti-american- well educated (engineering/social sciences)
-when soviet union invaded Afghanistan, Osama joined group to fight Russians. was anti-soviet.
-joined by medical doctor Ayman Al-Zawahiri- successful career in Egypt, was a radical muslim brother, captured/jailed/tortured by Egyptian gov’t.
-when released, joined Al-Quida (means “the base”)
War on terrorism
-war started in Carter, continued through Reagan.
-russians left by 1988, Al-Quida somewhat dismantled.
-Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, Americans had to figure out how to deal with him.
-bin laden offered services to saudi gov’t, turned down, forced out of country, ended up back in Afghanistan.
-for bin ladin, infidels were soviets and americans.
-upset that saudi arabia allowed infidel soldiers (non-muslims) to be in a sacred muslim country (saudi arabia)
-Al-Zawahiri (medical doctor)- 2nd in command, brains behind operation.
Reasons for Islamic Resurgence
Social Movements fighting for fairness and justice
fighting against corrupt gov’ts.
build a better world by returning to the early muslim community of the prophet and his companions (sometimes referred to as ‘fundamentalists’, but term is no longer widely used or correct) (jihad: struggle- not a holy war!- muslims are expected to struggle within own lives) (struggle against enemies of Islam. create a strong group of good Muslims following Islamic law- most religions have this component- Protestants and Catholics.
religion a powerful motivating element for Islamic movements, but their ultimate purpose is to seize, remold, and control the state and to establish an islamic gov’t.
Wahhabi Movement
Wahhabi Movement in the Arabian Peninsula during the 18th and 19th centuries.
-only we call them Wahhabi- they are called ‘Salafi’.
-not influenced by the west in its emergence. dedicated to returning to Islam.
-king Saud conquered enemies, helped Saudi Arabia become a country.
-very conservative, follow strictest school of Islamic law (no drinking, prohibited foods, seclusion of women)
-Islam has 4 bodies of Islamic law (extremely strict to liberal), all accepted. Iran and Saudi Arabia both follow strictest law.
Napoleon lands in Egypt
fought brightly clothed horsemen, their first interaction with western warfare. Napoleon brought scientists to egypt to observe their tools/culture- even contemplated building canal to link red sea and meditteranean. American missionaries come to try to Christianize area. Islam defeated- questioning in minds. 1882-1955
Peaceful Capture of the State
Hassan Al Banna (1906-49)- The Muslim Brotherhood.
assassinated, carried out guerilla warfare. tried to get Egyptians to establish Islamic state.
Mawlana Abul Ala Mawdudi (1903-79)- Jamaat-i-Islami
died natural death. similar to muslim brotherhood.
agreed with Al Banna.
Ideology of Al Banna and Mawdudi
Islam provides an all-embracing Ideology for individuals, and for state and society. (don’t need western things)
The Quran, and the Sunnah of the Prophet are (or should be) the foundation of Muslim Life
Qur’anic concept of a return to the fundamentals of Islam, and reform preached by the prophets to warn their sinful communities to return to God’s path by living within shari’a norms.
Islamic Law (the Sharia)- based on the Quran an dthe Prophet’s behavior should control Muslim life.
Faithfulness to Islam and implementation of God’s law brings sucess, power, and wealth to the Islamic Community.
Weakness and subservience of Muslim society must be due to faithlessness of Muslims
Restoration of Muslim pride and Power requires return to Islam and to God’s law.
Tajdid (renewal): Hadith (portion of holy literature which is not infallible- prophet tells what is right and wrong, how to solve problems) that states that God will send a renewal (mujaddid) at the beginning of each century to restore true islamic practice, regenerate the ummah (muslim community) (with strays off the path over time).
science and technology must be used within the guidelines of Islam.

-islam is not the problem- it is the solution.
Post-Cold War until 9/11
-look at afghanistan: against insurgence of Soviet, just like against insurgence of West. We are still fighting there, war is 9 years old.
Afghanistan: “America’s crusade”
-not good to use term “crusade”- invokes ideas of middle ages/natives crusades.
-look at Islam as “defeated” by the west, but after Iranian revolution and spread of Islamist movements, looks different.
-new chapter of Western-American relations.
Iran's oil
-1908: first large oil fields discovered by John Darcy, Australian, rich off of mines there. Moved to Great Britain to enjoy life there.

-Englishman, leaves letter on desk. Oil discovered, should have been English gov’t’s, but made code out of bible verse, British came swiftly. Started relationship between Britain and Iran.
-Changed outlook on world: Anglo-Iranian oil company.
US, Russia, Britain's outlook on Iran
agreed to supply soviets with supplies/support through Iran.
-post war, americans and russians would agree to leave.
-Riza-Shah: disliked by british.
-1941: asked to allow germans in his country, he was put on a ship, sent to S. Africa. Never came back to Iran.
-his son (muhammad) became king. Decided to be nice to British to avoid father’s fate.

Anglo-Iranian oil company:
CIA worked hard to discredit Prime Minister
-iranian shah vs. prime minister, Shah left country.
US-Iran pre-1959
-we supported/armed shah.
-post wwII, allies were supposed to help russia and leave Iran, but they decided to stay in some parts.
-stalin left, because we had bomb. cut his losses.
-US protected territorial structure of Iran in this way.
Iran After 1953:
the shah became autocratic, isolated, westernized.
-authoritarian rule, corrupt regime.
-enormous repression of public, many enemies: nationalists, islamists, professional class, leftists, rightists. (aka major forces in the country)
-two supporters: military, and rich upper class.
-Downfall: 1979: US supporting them, but we sent US general to tell him it was his time to go.
US-Iran relations
-Iran bordering Soviet union: easy to spy on them, listening devices
-Turkey next door also used.
-sold Shah lots of weaponry, 1975: made a deal to sell $15 billion of thermo-nuclear materials.
1979 Iranian Revolution
Shah displaced from rule, seen as enemy of the people.
-at odds with Ayatollah, was exiled to Iraq, asked to leave, stayed in Paris.
-Islamists won, could command the largest number of people away from shah out of his many enemies, use pulpits to gain supporters.
-after revolution: had tough time controlling the country- had to use much force.
Shah had cancer, wanted to come to US for treatment
-during jimmy carter’s presidency.
-david rockefeller (head of bank) and kissinger convinced US to let him come as a humanitarian gesture.
-prime minister of iran approved, but had little power- overruled by ayatollah.
-iranian public saw it as us trying to bring back the shah- hurt relationship.
-shah fell from grace for many reasons:
-was secular, westernized, close w/ US (seen as corrupt), failed to have supporters among Shi’a (93% of iranians are shi’a)
-economic fail: oil money did not seep to lower class levels.
-industrialization took a long time, public did not feel benefits.
-hondayni: more of a success: established islamic republic with constitution.
-iran is the only islamic republic with constitution and elections (although faulty).
Ayatollah took US embassy hostage
in response to us giving shah cancer treatment.
Carter handled hostage crisis- also had bad economy, lost 2nd term to Reagan.
Iranians demanded Shah to hurt him. claimed he had tons of stolen money stashed in western banks.
died, was buried in Egypt.
Iranian Foreign Policy
-very anti-US, but also didn’t like Soviets.
-difficulties with exporting revolution as well as with hostage crisis.
-let to Iran-Iraq war: started 1980 with Saddam Hussein invading Iraq to stop Ayatollah from exporting revolutionary Islamist movement. War lasted 8 years.
-cost more than a trillion and a half dollars, destroyed countryside.
-developed opposing policies to us, very anti-Israel.
-used terrorist activities to get rid of enemies.
-nuclear weaponry issues- Bush considered attacking their facilities.

Islamist groups have been very encouraged that Islam is triumphant, can triumph over the west (and/or east).
-muslims said that Islam ideology is the answer, not the problem.
World changes after 1989
-1989: Berlin Wall destroyed, eastern euro countries break away from soviet union
-1991: war between US and Saddam Hussein takes place, Soviets stop supporting us.
-1990’s: soviet union collapsing from significant changes
-1980: saddam invades, US puts together coalition into Saudi Arabia to fight him and get him out of Kuwait.
-feared that Saddam keeping Kuwait would allow him to see Saudi Arabia and its treasures.
-Bin Ladin seen as “persona non-grata”, pushed out of country.
-ended war without going into Iraq, without ending Saddam- though we tried. US destroyed infrastructure of Iraqi nation.
others join coalition to protect Kuwait, but not to help Iraq.
feared that stronger Iraq would help out Iran.
-armistice agreement: to end hostilities.
“Genocide by Sanctions”
-iran couldn’t sell oil, people starved to death, could only sell a certain amount. tons of civilians suffered, and it did not impact Saddam at all.
Bush Sr. uses “new world order”
-indispensable nation.
“empire if you can keep it”.
-features of the empire: democratization (starts before Bush jr.)
-policing the world (ask for exceptions. cannot participate in international criminal court)
-create a world to our liking (nothing new- woodrow wilson wanted to prepare the world for democracy)
George W. Bush and the Olive Branch
visited Israel while gov. of Texas, cried at Olive bush. vision of spreading liberty to all nations: seen as a sacred calling.
-regime change becomes an important aspect of this thinking.
-US cannot invade without denying itself its own essence.
Pre-Emption in the Bush Doctrine:
-US has the right to attack any country or entity if that entity was a threat to the US now, or COULD be a threat in the future.
Why did US gov't see Iraq as a threat?
-US has the right to attack any country or entity if that entity was a threat to the US now, or COULD be a threat in the future.
Post-Cold war and 9/11: US crusaders
Post Cold War: world is chaotic, we are the strongest nation, so we need to protect others.
Post 9/11: the “great crusade”- Bush Jr. distracted bc of occurances of 9/11. very strongly felt how world should act/think: “if you’re not with us, you’re with the terrorists.”
-crusading efforts to impose liberty/democracy rampant.
-ex: WWII: US imposed democracy in japan, helped w. Germany.
West Germany’s experience with democracy/democratization.
-culture of well educated people, industrialized society, widespread wealth.
-not illiterate or very poor.
-exercising right to vote.
Colin Powell
Colin Powell: at best, can contain problems and prevent them from exploding. cannot solve everything.
-Neo-Conservatives: the “crusaders” in regards to foreign policy. believe in regime change. Dick Cheney, Ronald Rumsfield,
-Bush initially listened to Sec. of State, eventually began listening to Neo-Conservatives.

Colin Powell, etc. wanted to go to UN to get resolution against Iraq: was not approved. couldn’t go into iraq.
-int’l community did not see iraq as a danger to the US at this stage, because they were so weakened.
Weapons of Mass Destruction
-colin powell claimed they were there to get resolution against Iraq
-”curveball”: iraqi in germany trying to get asylum, told lies about WMD in iraq to get freed. Germany didn’t really believe him, CIA never questioned him.

invasion supposed to be “shock and awe”.
Bush’s views on Iraq
has WMD
is a danger to the US
danger to own neighbors
danger to own citizens
worked for many presidents
-Bush asked him if there way any connection between Al-Queda, Taliban, etc.
-wanted to see connection, pushing for war.
-connection never really proven.
Journalists who wrote in favor of war and Bush
-mostly right wing, neo-conservatives
-ex: Robert Woodward- writer for Washington Post, wrote about Watergate secrets.
-also wrote favorable book for Bush
-one book impartially
-”state of denial”- anti-war.
-Joe Wilson: book on politics of truth, wife working for CIA, someone broke her cover.
Role of religion in the war
-seen after war had started, in middle of war
-Sec. of Defense Donald Rumsfeld gave prez briefings on war, began quoting verses from the Bible and putting them as the cover of briefings.
-mixing of religion and information.
-bush was born-again christian.
-gave imagery of religious crusader, going after evil wherever it is to be found. imagery of armor.
-if use of crusader imagery was revealed to Iraq, would have been “worse than Abu Grahib”, like crusading against Muslim people in middle of a very Muslim country.
-Bible quotes prepared by another born-again Christian general.
-greatly influenced President’s decisions.
Aftermath of war was a great fiasco
-US did not have enough force or thinking put into post-war.
-shock-and-awe worked, but afterwards slumped.
-could not keep law and order: looting, stealing, violence, chaos.
-US soldiers ordered to go and protect oil lines/pipes.
-supposedly short and quick war has been neither- have been there since 2003.
-created divisions between US and best allies (French, Germans) from beginning of republic.
-could not persuade international scene to support us.
Reasons for war against terror
US wanted good relations with “new Europe”
Bush Sr. and Jr. both conducted a war against terror, but have many more differences.
-Sr. : conservative realist, educated at Yale, Phi Beta Kappa, congressperson from Texas, ambassador to china, head of Cia, VP of US for 8 years, President for 4 years.
-Jr.: Governor from Texas, Phi Beta Kappa, Born-again Christian. Felt that his father did not “finish the job” in 1991 in going into Iraq to get rid of Saddam Hussein.
-influenced “crusading” message, family emotions.
Issues with Afghanistan Regime Change
Gets mixed into Afghanistan, idea that regime change can lead to democracy, 9/11, pushed into international scene.
-democracy must be a grass root movement, people must want it. must come from within people.
-US had its unwillingness to accept pluralist society, good income, ideology from enlightenment.
-Iraq has had elections, didn’t solve problems, on verge of civil war.
-once US leaves, will probably be much more violence amongst iraqis.
Iraq has serious divisions
-Arab Sunnis
-Arab Shi’a (60-70% of population)
-economic and power struggle problems between them
-plenty of oil in Curd area, also in Shi’a area. little oil in middle of Sunni area.
-each party dislikes the other.
-US cannot get them to overcome differences and form a civil society.
War was under false pretenses, American public began to realize this
-administration was either honestly mistaken, or was massaged to support favorable ideas.
-either way, got us into long, costly war.
-more than 4,000 Americans killed
-10s of 1000s of soldiers still living maimed and injured.
-Volunteer army of 3.5 million americans.
War against Iran, Kuwait
destroyed infrastructure.
-would need 12-15 billion dollars to support Iraq. doesn’t leave much for building infrastructure and paying for war.
-Iraq has liability for paying Iran for starting war.
War brought bad publicity for US
Bin Ladin, Taliban still present.
-more soldiers in Afghanistan than we have in Iraq now.
-public lost faith in war- felt that administration did not level with them.

War also brought US bad publicity
-Abu Grahib pictures released to public
-Afghanistan, Guantanamo
-war against Iraq caused tension between US and allies.
-also tension in UN: could not get resolution to allow us to go into war, like Bush Sr. could.
Where does it end?
-at least have a lengthy involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan
-costly in $ and lives.
Iraqi people continue to suffer
-losses exceed ours greatly
-no one can estimate further than 30 thousand to 150 thousand dead in Iraq.
neither Iraq or US will officially adopt a number.
-sanctions of 1990 killed at least 1 million Iraqis (mostly vulnerable people, children under 5, pregnant women, the elderly)
-were rationing everything- medical supplies, food, etc.
2003 war as well as fighting afterwards caused
-unknown debt in civilian lives (US does not allow Iraq to count civilian casualties because we try to avoid it, but it does happen.)
-1 million Iraqis are refugees outside of the country
-at least 3 million Iraqis are refugees inside their own country.
-difficult for them to think that our intervention in their country really liberated them.
-don’t think americans are leaving anytime soon, us wants oil and hasn’t gotten it yet.
-US thinks we are liberating Iraq from Saddam Hussein.

Long-term effects on US
-reinforced lack of trust in what we’re told, how and by whom we’re told it.
-much more sinister.
Ahmad Shalabi
-Shi’a from Iraq, returned to Iraq with our troops
-spent adult life in Jordan, head of a bank
-bank went bankrupt, he was accused of stealing the country
-20 year jail sentence put against him
-ended up in England and US
-led the anti-Saddam movement outside Iraq- got into office of the VP of US, CIA supported the group.
-Shalabi assumed he would become president, caught sharing secrets with Iranian gov’t
-one example of the kind of intelligence US was using.
Tony Blair
-PM of Great Britain
-gave speech, had quote against Saddam- was plagarized from a graduate student paper about Saddam Hussein and Iraq.
dubious nature of US intelligence against Saddam
-either way, intelligence was really massaged, or was inadvertently badly interpreted.
-US entered into war, got distracted from major war we were in in Afghanistan, war on terror.
-in meantime, economy is bad, lots of money being spent on war.
The U.S., E.U., U.N., IRAN, and Nuclear Weapons
US iranian relations since 1979 have rapidly deteriorated
reasons for Iran’s hostility towards the US
US support for the Shah
US allows Shah to come to US for medical treatment
The Hostage Crisis
Iran’s Demand of getting the Shah’s financial assets
Iran’s motivations for Terrorism
Exporting the Revolution
Khomeini’s Revolutionary Goal: remake the region in Iran’s Self-Image
Iran’s Hostility toward the US and Israel
US accused Iran of Terrorist Acts, Assassinations, Kidnappings, Bombings (Al-Khobar Attack 1996), etc.
Maritime Terrorism during the Iran-Iraq War. (us accused Iran of sending armed boats into territorial waters.)
Iranians assassinating iranians who fled.
US thought there was a connection between Iran and the people who bombed our towers in 1996
Western Objections to Iran
American Hostage Crisis, Support of Terrorist Groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon (controversial- some don’t call them a terrorist group, kidnapped soldiers, etc, Israel wanted to abolish them. expand??), Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank and Gaza
Changes in Iran’s Policies
Although Iran engaged in terrorist acts in the Middle East and Europe, there were times when it stopped such activities.
Has Mohammed Khatnami ended Iran’s support of terrorism? (Iran’s 5th president from August 2, 1997-August 3 2005)
During Khatami’s Presidency, Iran’s Foreign Policy Began a process of moving from confrontation to conciliation.
Iran’s Reasons for wanting nuclear power
Nuclear Power is essential to becoming a regional power (countries used to need steel mills, etc. now needs nuclear weaponry)
inferiority of iran’s conventional weapons
national and regional security (many threats of attack upon iran, and upon israel)
domestic political situation (1981- flew into iraq and destroyed nuclear facilities.)
iran’s fear of Israel, the US and some of its neighbors (impact of the Iran Iraq War, 1980-1988)

Notes: israel is only country in middle east with nuclear weapons, has respectable nuclear program. Iran wants them.
Iran’s Objectives
Preserving the Islamic regime, avoiding attack
Improving its status and prestige as a leader in the Islamic world
Recognition of Iran’s regional power and role
Acquiring civilian nuclear power
Acquiring nuclear weapons (Iranians deny, we suspect they are. 2008- national intelligence estimate- “highly probable that Iran started working on nukes in 2003, when we invaded iraq. there was division within Iranian gov’t. )
Economic Development (energy for civilian use. difficult for Iran to make any progress with other major countries as long as nuclear threat is there)
Improving relations with the EU, US, UN, and other nations.

notes: regime change was a declared part of Bush jr.’s policy. had done regime change before, but secretly, and there were repurcussions for it.
US Objectives and Position on Iran
Iran must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons (lots of verbal threats, most agree)
International monitoring and verification of Iran’s nuclear activities (Iran has allowed inspection, but there is still suspicion about secret facilities)
Change in Iran’s hostile policy towards the US and Israel.
Stop Iran terrorism and end its support for terrorist groups.
Force Iran’s compliance by imposing severe economic and military sanctions (Bush enforced sanctions, have occurred in past. sometimes work, sometimes not. Sanctions in Iraq killed many civilians, but did not topple Saddam Hussein. ex: sanctions in cuba: fidel castro remained, brother took over, we did not get what we wanted. often hurt the innocent, civilian population rather than the leadership.)
Most of the EU countries support the US position but...
(opposition of a weaponized nuclear program in Iran.
But solutions differ considerably: us refuses to negotiate with Iran (condolezza rice- “iranians know what they need to do before we talk to them”. talking became a reward)
no talks with iran ever occurred, just verbal threats. If it would have worked, they may have been able to help us in Iraq.
EU does like sanctions.
other countries’ negotiations did not really work- got iran to allow inspections, but not all 5 major groups allowed negotiations (US, EU, Chinese, Russians, etc.)
Russian and Chinese Policies Re: Iran’s Nuclear Program
Russian and China have major economic and military interest in Iran
They are not likely to support severe economic and military sanctions against Iran
Iran has huge oil and gas reserves making it impossible to completely isolate from the global economy
The Iranian gov’t has been successful in labeling the US and the West as colonial powers trying to prevent it from acquiring peaceful civilian nuclear technology.

notes: try to come up with some sort of enticement package (with real and good rewards, esp. economically) to forego nuclear militarized program, allow for regular inspections. etc. negotiate for suspending nuclear enrichment program.
US Options in dealing with Iran’s Nuclear Program
Demand zero enrichment in Iran
Impose UN, US, and EU sanctions
no negotiations unless Iran suspends its enrichment program (Bush, Rice)
offer iran a moderate incentive package after Iran suspends its enrichment program
negotiate with iran the issue of suspension and offer a richer incentive package (obama)
isolate iran and impose severe sanctions if negotiations and incentives do not work (obama)
Isolation and tough sanctions are not likely to work due to Iranian culture of resistance to foreign pressure (and we do not have a consensus among the 5 major powers for sanction)
The Russians and Chinese are unlikely to support tough sanctions or isolation of Iran
Start negotiations on several serious issues including nuclear program, terrorism, Israel, Iraq, US sanctions, diplomatic recognition, economic issues, security, and Iran’s regional role. (don’t attack all issues at once. take one or two at a time.)
This may or may not work, but it is not possible to resolve the nuclear issue without addressing Iran’s security concerns.
iran must feel safe with only conventional military weapons in order to give up nukes
improbable to make them a non-nuclear area- probably won’t listen.
could just accept them as a nuclear state.
The Military Option: Advantages and Disadvantages
Regime-change attack similar to Iraq 2003 not likely
US is bogged down in two wars, Iraq and Afghanistan (7 years iraq, 9 years afghanistan, neither looking like they’ll end soon.)
Iran has larger territory, population, and stronger military than Iraq
limited strikes are a realistic option, but they are not likely to take out all nuclear facilities
risk of high civilian casualties (just hit 1000 and 4000 casualties)
they are likely to slow down the program, but not end it.
they cannot destroy the knowledge of how to enrich.
Iran is likely to pull out of the NPT (nuclear proliferation treaty) and embark on making nuclear weapons
serious risks of military strikes: iranian responses in Iraq, the Gulf region, Hezbollah support of Iran elsewhere in the Middle East
Global opposition to US military action (not good for our image)
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