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| Public Opinion should influence what government does in a democracy |
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| Many people behave as though public opinion matters, and thus the measures, records, and reactions to public are a factor in politics |
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| The virtuous, citizen activated by concern for the common good; recognizes that democracy comes with obligations as well as rights; As a group |
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| Apolitical, Self-Interested Actors |
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| Inattentive and ill-informed, politically intolerant and rigid, unlikely to get involved in political life; As an Individual |
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| Asking about voting intentions in an effort to add drama to the campaign... everything becomes a reaction to the voter intentions |
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| Agents of Political Socialization |
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Family
Schools
Churches, Neighborhoods, Workplaces
Peer Groups
Major Events |
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| Cheif agent of socialization, especially in terms of party identification |
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| Citizenship and practices |
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| Churches, Neighborhoods, and Workplaces |
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| Self-selection and reinforcement of beliefs |
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| Conformity and the Influentials |
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| Every generation has defining moments and subsequent effects |
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| "what's in it for me?"; political preferences tend to begin with economics |
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| Most of us self-identify as either conservative or liberal; conservatives tend to believe in limited government, while liberals tend to have faith in government action and social tolerance |
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| Higher levels of education tend to correlate with tolerance and active citizens |
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| Supposedly, opinions on issues and ideology don't change much, but engagement does? |
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| The gender gap and the marriage gap are statistically significant |
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| As women attained greater independence and education, the gap in participation has disappeared and the gap in ideology has grown (women tend to be more liberal) |
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| Women who are married or widowed tend to be more ideologically conservative |
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| The differences are not consistent, but are drastic on certain issues |
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| Differences between followers of major religions in the US have softened, but still exist; now "church people" VS "seculars" |
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| coast VS core; urban VS rural |
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| Sample of the population that does not overrepresent any portion of the population |
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Using a sample that overrepresents a portion of the population thus leading to errors in results and skewed information
EXAMPLE: cell phones |
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| CAN BE VERY REPRESENTATIVE OF 300 MILLION IF RANDOMLY DRAWN AND REPRESENTATIVE |
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| Self-Selection and Push Polls |
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How can this be representative??;
EXAMPLE: Crowdsourcing
Crowdsourcing: getting your own people to vote |
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| Present false or negative information, often in hypothetical form, and ask respondents to reach to it... therefore manipulate public opinion |
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| Challenges of Public Opinion |
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| Internet can be good and bad (people are more responsive, but samples can be biased and self-selected); cell phones are more difficult to contact |
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| Accuracy of Public Opinion |
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| Generally very accurate; right in every Presidential since 1980 EXCEPT 2000; Bush VS Gore... but recent struggles |
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| Our society and lives may best be served when most of us choose not to know about the detailed workings of politics... we all have lives, jobs, families, hobbies, etc. |
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| Two Step Flow of Information |
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| We trust the OPINION LEADERS and Influentials to filter information and be experts for us |
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Likelihood increases with age
18-29 group has only exceeded 50% in 3 elections |
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| Women more likely than men |
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Education is historically one of the strongest predictors
College educated voted at 92% in 2004... slightly less in 2008 |
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Registration laws in the US decrease voter turnout
Voter fatigue: 8-12 times every four years in US
Voting on Tuesdays limits turnout
Limited access to vote-by-mail
Intentional or unexpected effects of current laws? |
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| Partisanship and Social Group Membership |
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Party affiliation is the largest factor
We like candidates who look like us
Mitt Romney and "The Mormon Question"
-29% won't vote for him bec he's mormon |
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| Voter base their decisions on policies they believe will be enacted and supported by their candidate IN THE FUTURE |
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| Voters base thier decisions on the state of current events and hold those in power accountable (Clinton and the economy, Reagan and "are you better") |
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Primaries didn't used to be binding
The "party insiders" are no longer as powerful |
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| Talk to fellow politicians, gather early support, collect campaign cash, leak the rumor to the media, visit Iowa, form exploratory committee, make the anouncement |
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| Party members meet and discuss/ debate, then vote for a nominee |
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| Voters cast ballots for delegates |
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| Any voter can vote in any primary regardless of party affiliation |
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| Only voters registered with the associated party affiliation may vote in that party's primary |
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Choice of Vice President nominee
Motivate the base, formalize the selection
Establish the next leaders and front-runners (Obama) |
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| Electors meet in their state capitols in December, votes are sent to the Senate. If no majority then House chooses President, while Senate chooses VP |
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Winner-take-all elections (except in Maine and Nebraska) allow for loss of popular but victory in Electoral College
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One man, One vote? NO
Large states get the attention |
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Professional staff and big names
Campaign Manager, Fundraiser, Field Director, Pollster, Oppo Research, Research, Media Consultants, ETC.
It takes an army, but at the end of the day staff exists to manage 3 resources:
TIME,PEOPLE, MONEY |
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TIME, PEOPLE, MONEY
More Important? |
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Issues on which we ALL agree
-strong economy
-fighting terrorism
-etc. |
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Issues with two sides where candidates attempt to drive wedge in voters
-abortion
-spending
-military use
-etc. |
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Issues which drive a wedge WITHIN a party
-Republican being pro-choice
-Huntsman on global warming |
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| Defining the issues that voters should be most concerned about in an election |
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Directly to candidate ($2,500 max)...
Citizens United will change everything |
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527s, interest groups, etc. spending on behalf of issues, GOTV, etc.
(NOT CANDIDATE CHOICE) |
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FDR probably wouldn't be elected today...
Mass Media doesn't control the message to the same degree it used to
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| Changes in sources of Information |
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Newspapers: decline
Television: same
Radio: decline
Internet: rise |
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In the early 1900's, radio was the first real hit to newspapers due to personal nature and rapid info
Over 11,000 stations today... splintered market
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What current change is killing radio?
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98% of households now have a television
40% have 3 or more
With the growth of cable, many stations and programs now focus on politics exclusively
Talk show circuits are now a requirement for running |
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| an inherent limitation on readership... you will alienate someone |
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Sensationalism in journalism... reporting on sex, crime, gossip, and human interest
Used to lure readers after Civil War |
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| Every major news source is now owned by a corporate conglomerate (except the Christian Science Monitor) |
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| Advertising provides 5x the revenue that circulation does... |
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How many corporations own all of the major media sources?
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| 10 (Time-Warner, Disney, GE, etc.) |
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| Four Consequences of Corporate Power |
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Commercial Bias
Reduced political news to keep larger audiences and ad $
Infotainment
Conflicts of Interest |
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| All candidates have to be allowed to buy or use airtime if one is allowed |
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| Ended in 1980s... sought equal coverage of opposing sides |
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| Individuals who have reputation damaged on the air have a right to respond |
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| Regulation of Broadcast Media |
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Equal Time Rule
Fairness Doctrine
Right of Rebuttal |
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