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| people are more likely to attribute validity to arguments with believable conclusions and less likely to believe implausible arguments |
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| unconscious cognitive shortcuts for reasoning about something that is hard to think about |
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| using something (A's) similarity to our mental picture of a typical something (B) to make judgements about how likely it is that A is B |
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| using how easy it is to think of instances of an A to make judgements about how likely A is to occur |
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| anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic |
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| for some quantity (A), taking an initial estimate of A and then adjusting away from it to take into account other factors |
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| when you only recognize one factor you tend to remember that one, believing that it is the larger or better of the two |
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| X>50% of F's are G's. A is an F, so A is a G |
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| when evaluating probabilities, we tend to ignore information about the base rate of a type of event, and just focus on what looks to us to be more specific to the case (taken from the representative heuristic) |
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| fallacy of small sample size |
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| sample is not large enough in size |
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| fallacy of selection bias |
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| if the premise does not say that the selection is unbiased |
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| people who are willing and motivated to take a survey after seeing what it entails |
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| people who are willing and motivated to complete and return a mail-in survey or answer the phone for a phone survey |
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| phone surveys only hit up people with landlines, making the sample biased |
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| respondent deception bias |
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| people will give answers that sound good rather than the truth |
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| depending on how the question is asked, or the order in which the questions are asked, it will affect how a person responds to a poll |
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| tendency to notice or seek out and retain confirming data more than disconfirming data |
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| an argument is ___ if an only if its SoR is valid, and all of its premises are acceptable |
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| an argument is ____ if and only if its SoR is inductively strong, and all of its premises are acceptable |
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| an argument is ____ if an only if its SoR is fallacious, or any of its premises are unacceptable |
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| margin of error for 250-300 people is |
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| three types of confirmation bias are: |
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1. motivational
2. cognitive
3. environmental |
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| motivational confirmation bias |
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| we tend to seek out confirming evidence, and not to seek out disconfirming evidence |
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| cognitive confirmation bias |
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| we tend more to notice and remember confirming evidence, and not so much to notice and remember disconfirming evidence |
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| environmental confirmation bias |
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| sometimes the universe makes confirming evidence more accesible to us than disconfirming |
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| our decisions can sometimes have causal consequences that make them look better than they might really have been |
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| seemingly self-fulfilling prophecy |
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| our decisions dont influence outcomes, but do influence how likely we are to be exposed to disconfirming evidence |
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if P then Q
not Q
so, not P |
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if P then Q
not P
so, not Q |
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