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EBM Week 2B (Fall Qtr)
John Byrne Prognosis & Prospective Cohort Studies 10/6/10
38
Medical
Professional
10/20/2010

Additional Medical Flashcards

 


 

Cards

Term
In relation to the control and experimental groups of an observational study, what contributes to confounding?
Definition

 

An imbalance of prognostic factors

(different stages of disease, not representative of general population, exposure isn't randomized)

Term
Confounding leads you to under or overestimate the risk or effect of treatment in an observational study?
Definition

 

Underestimate due to unmeasured factors contributing to the outcome.

Term
What is the core strength of randomized control trials when assessing risk, harm, and prognosis?
Definition

 

- Because you get to choose the patients in each group (with or without intervention), you can balance prognostic factors in order to develop a cause and effect relationship.

Term

Which of the following is NOT a limitation of an RCT for risk, harm and prognosis?

 

A. Outcomes take a long time

B. Expensive

C. Susceptible to recall bias

D. Requires large sample size

E. Can't randomize patients to harmful agents (unethical)

Definition

 

C. Susceptible to recall bias

Recall bias is not present in an RTC. It is however present in a retrospective cohort study.

Term
Define referral filter bias:
Definition

 

Referral filter bias occurs when patients are enrolled in the study because they are already in hospitals and are available. However, they may have other health problems that can creating confounding.

Term
What is the bias called when some of the patients in the study receive a greater amount and diversity of tests to detect a certain outcome?
Definition

 

Surveillance bias - the patients don't have an equal likelihood of being checked for occurrence.

Term
What is the most common bias associated with prospective cohort studies?
Definition

 

Recall bias - due to the fact that patients are recruited and monitored over time and their responses can be influence by their memory.

Term
Between Prospective Cohort, Retrospective Cohort, and Case-control Studies, which provides the most control over the data?
Definition

 

Prospective Cohort studies- because you are acquiring the data rather than compiling it from the past.

Term
What is the analysis called that accounts for baseline differences (confounding) in a prospective cohort study?
Definition

 

Adjustment analysis

Term
How does an adjustment analysis reduce confounding?
Definition

 

Adjustment analyses compare subgroups in both the exposed and unexposed groups.
For example, if the exposure is smoking, an adjustment analysis would group smokers who exercise at least 4 days a week with nonsmokers who exercise at least 4 days a week and see if it reveals any changes in the data interpretation.

Term
What are the two primary limitations of a prospective cohort study?
Definition

 

- outcomes take a long time

- patients of the exposed and control groups have unbalanced prognostic factors (confounding)

Term
An adjustment analysis has a correlation coefficient (r) which measures the strength of the relationship between two variables (dependent and independent). What is the range of possible r values and what do each end of the range represent?
Definition

 

r = -1 to 1.

-1 ~ strongest possible negative relationship between the dependent and independent variable

1 ~ strongest possible positive relatinoship betwen the dependent and independent variable

Term
In relation to the correlation coefficient (r) what value is representative of the null hypothesis?
Definition

 

zero

Term
Regression is used to predict who will get a disease based on the strength of the relationship between what two variables?
Definition

 

Predictor variable (IE- age, obesity, smoking) and the dependent or target variable (diabetes)

Term
What type of regression is used for dichotomous data?
Definition

 

Logistic regression

Term
What type of regression is used for continous data?
Definition

 

Linear regression

Term
Multivariate regression is the most useful in adjusting for what type of confounding?
Definition

 

differences in baseline characteristics

Term
What is the formula for Relative Risk Ratio (RRR)?
Definition

 

(a/a+b)/(c/c+d)

Term
What are the odds for a 4/10 risk ratio?
Definition
4/10 = 4:6 --> 2:3
Term
In a 10 patient study, the treated risk of death is 0.4 and the untreated odds of death is 1.33. What are the Risk and Odds Ratio for Death?
Definition

 

Risk Ratio for Death

risk treated/risk untreated

0.4/ 0.6 = 0.67

Odds Ratio for Death

0.67/1.33 = 0.5

Term
An Odds Ratio can be calculated using what formula?
Definition

 

In a 2 x 2 square...

(a/b)/(c/d) or (a*d)/(c*b)

Term
When an event rate is low, what can we say about odds ratio and relative risk?
Definition

 

They will approximate each other.

Term
When an odds ratio is around 1, what can we say about the risk ratio and odds ratio?
Definition

 

They approximate each other.

Term
When an OR is equal to 1, what is the general effect?
Definition

 

Nothing (no effect)

Term
Does RR or OR show a greater effect on things like risk reduction?
Definition

 

Odds Ratios make the effect size appear larger compared to relative risk.

Term
A survival curve with an initial steep descent and a subsequent leveling out would indicate what?
Definition

 

Poor prognosis early, but a longer survival rate of those who survived the early stages of the disease.

Term
In a prospective cohort study with 100 patients, 6 patients die within the first 5 years. In addition, 11 patients are lost to follow up. What are the crude case fatality rate, worst case scenario, and best case scenario and is the loss to follow up significant?
Definition

 

Crude Case Fatality Rate

= #died/#follow up = 6/89 = 6.7%

 

Worst Case Scenario - all lost to follow up died

(6 + 11)/100 = 17%

 

Best Case Scenario - all lost to follow up lived

6/100 = 6%

 

Due to the large # of patients lost relative to the number who have died, bias has occurred.

Term
What are the 4 major issues that can effect the validity of a cohort study?
Definition

 

Confounding due to lack of balance

- fixed with adjustment analysis

Summary statistics

-odds ratios, relative risk, survival curves

Loss to follow up

-worst case/best case scenario

Objective and unbiased outcome measures

- use of blinding

Term

Cohort study results can influence what various parts of clinical practice?

 

Definition

 

Therapy decisions

Good prognosis (management of care/lack of therapy)

Very poor prognosis (end of life care)

Term
When are clinical prediction rules the most useful?
Definition

 

When decision making is complex, clinical stakes are high, or when you can save money without compromising care.

Term
What level of evidence is a clinical prediction rule when it is experiencing narrow validation?
Definition

 

Level III

Term
What level of evidence is a clinical prediction rule at when it is undergoing broad validation?
Definition

 

Level II

Term
What level of evidence is a clinical prediction rule at when it is being derived?
Definition

 

Level IV

Term
The highest level of evidence (Level I) is obtained when a clinical prediction rule is undergoing what state of development?
Definition

 

Impact analysis - rule makes a difference in physician behavior, improves patient outcome, and/or reduces cost.

Term
What is involved with deriving a clinical prediction rule?
Definition

 

- develop a list of potential predictors

- examine a group of patients for the presence of the predictors and the status of their outcomes

- do a statistical analysis (multivariate) to determine which predictors are good

 

Term
What is the primary difference between level III and level II clinical prediction rules?
Definition

 

- Level II has undergone testing in different setting with patients that belong to different populations resulting in different prevalence of disease.

Term
Why is validation such an important part of developing a clinical prediction rule?
Definition

 

A rule may be specific to one population group, patient type, or set of unique groups of predictor variables. Validation testing is the key to making succesful clinical prediction rules.

Term
A good clinical prediction rule has what characteristics in regards to setting, physicians, patients, and cost?
Definition

 

-works in a wide variety of settings

-changes physician behavior

- improves patient outcomes

- reduces cost

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