to predict future innovatoion needs and adoptions

Assumes that adoption follows a pattern. 

look at the adoption of one innovation

Generate theory- predict pattern of future innovation adoption. 

-The policy of educating citizens to read

- increased discretionary cash and time

-Innovation (printing press) reduced prices

- public demand for news due to war

-sensational writing and wider coverage of topics

- targeting segments of the population (i.e. women)

-other media became available

- prices increassed

- reduced interest in public affairs. 

- the invention of the printing press (books more common and less expensive)

- they are heavy to carry and need space to store. 

-About interesting ideas and appeal to a wide audience base.

- easy to read anywhere

- remain constant and unchanging for later reference

- policy changes introduce competition

- absence of service in certain areas. 

-Reduction in price for service (no need for long term contracts)

- social norms change- being always in contact. 

-technological innovation (greater storage capacity- improving graphics and audio

- expensive equipment (games, console, ect)

- policy and ratings can limit access to some games. 

-social norm includes gaming

- more variety of games to meet diverse interests.

-technological innovation can bring prices down for introductory systems. 

-radios are cheap and portable

- HD radio receivers are more expensive and out of reach of some people

-Radio signals are available almost everywhere- not always clear

- policy issues limit access to raio online (copyright, ect.)

- free service over air and even online- commercials are irritating.

- satellite radio requires small subscription but no commercials (individualized listening experience- how much would you pay to avoid commercials)

- Huge varieties of content to appeal to all musical tastes (tune into music or presidential elections)

-legal decisions allowed record and playback of copyrighted material

- technological innovation (improved quality and length of recording- reduced size of device)

- variety of formats and systems (wide/narrow screen, high def ...ect.)

- relatively easy to use and operate. 

-prices of devices declining but prices of DVD's increasing

- people can watch movies in the comfort of home (fast-forwarding, rewinding, and pausing programming- some even for live television, but problems with advertisers)

-cheaper than going to the theater. 

-costs for programming and television sets (more than traditional TV, less than 10 years ago)

- policy requires increased HDTV compatible programming

- technological innovation (better quality picture and sound)

- increased social appeal

- more complex home theater setup.

- high cost of computers outside range for many people (price continues to come down- PC's must be replaced regularly)

- "windows" made the computer simpler and more intuitive- the average person was able to use it

- technological innovation (more memory and capability, improved battery life and wireless connections- computers smaller, portable and faster)

-portable and convenient- reduces time to do tasks. 

- most jobs require computers

- New capabilities (can provide music, videos, pictures and even TV. 

-the hardware level (improvements in computing and speed of access- upgraded digital local loop has facilitated broadband to more people)

- Policies-government has not mandated universal service. 

-legislative issues pending (copyright issues for downloads, ect)

- fast access increases enjoyment and ability to do things- increases cost.

- The internet is a quick, easy, convenient source of information (allows everyone to be a content provider, communicate with people who are far away, work/school/social may require internet access)

- the cost ma deter some

- fear spyware, viruses and identity theft

convergence- merging of functions of old and new media

- joining of internet video content and services

- wireless phones provide internet and CD functions

Consumers want flexibility in products- buy 1 device for multiple purposes

-Rate of waves- how frequently waves occur (one cycle per second is a hertz; Frequency=cycles/time)

-Cycle of wave is complete radio wave

-# of waves in a period (per second); from momentary zero to + direction to- direction, back to momentary zero.

-Period: length of time in 1 cycle. 

- amount of current flow (ac) determines strength of wave

-Cycle of wave (each alteration emits electromagnetic energy; faster rate of alterations, faster rate of energy)

- Stronger waves can travel further

-the distance sound travels during one cycle of the sound

-literally the length of a wave (the distance between two successive peaks/troughs.

[image]

-rises and falls fluidly in 'radio waves' (waves of radiated energy)

-Each alteration emits a wave of electromagnetic energy (amount of current determines power of wave, strength; rate of alteration determines frequency of wave [small ac=weak wave; one cycle/second= one hertz]

-Power and frequency are independent of each other (strong wave may be high (fast) or low (slow) frequency)

Electromagnetic radiation has different designations for different wavelength ranges

[image]

- LF (low frequency) under 30kHz ~40,000ft long

-MF (medium frequency) 300kHz-3mHz

-HF (high frequency) 3-30mHz

VHF (very high frequency) 30-300mHz

UHF (ultra high frequency) 300mHz-3gHz

SHF(super high frequency) 3-30 gHz

EHF(extremely high frequency) 30-300gHz~ .05 in long. 

-only come wavelengths in the electro magnetic spectrum suitable for communication

-Radio spectrum includes ground waves and direct waves

*all wireless communication (cellular, satellite, ect.)

*between 30,000 (30 kilohertz) and 300,000,000,000 hertz (300 gigahertz)

-Lower frequencies (LF,MF,HF) in the radio spectrum

-They travel along the ground until they are absorbed (follow the earth curvature)

-able to go through objects (mountains, buildings and forests)

- more stable for long range communication

-low frequencies have long wavelengths

-require massive equipment for transmission (huge antennas)

-Antenna size determined by wavelength (max efficient when exact equivalent of one wavelength[1/8,1/4,1/2,1)

-higher frequencies of radio spectrum (VHF,UHF,SHF,EHF)

-Travel in straight lines following horizon(line of sight)

*partially absorbed by obstacles in their path- blocked by mountains, tall buildings.

*does not follow earths curvature

-good for communications with line of sight application (satellite)- antennas can be line of sight between points. 

-Sharing of bandwidth by multiple signals

-Space division multiplexing (elevator, desks, mailbag)

-time division multiplexing (allocate time slots)

- Frequency division multiplexing(both am and fm)

Divide each signal into frequency band

different frequency for each signal

move signals into different frequency ranges (modulation)

**binary- any frequency, analog limited range

(less complex)

-vary the amplitude of sine wave with information signal

-modulated wave carried information in modulating signal

- Bandwidth used is at most tice frequency of signal

-very prone to additive noise. 

- this gives it a distorted shape

-extent of swings in frequency depend on modulating signal. 

-maximum frequency (Emax) does not vary with modulating signal

-place each signal on band of frequencies

-uses more of the frequency bandwidth of carrier

-less sensitive to noise. 

- when transmit FM stereo, increase in noise

-When AM stereo, need to send two signals (L&R)

-alters baseband signal using carrier waveform

-multiplies carrier by modulating signal

waveform=carrier + baseband

*result of modulation

Interprets the information- recovers baseband signal (information) from carrier

Envelope-positive peaks of modulated carrier- information about shape of modulated carrier; negative portion is redundant. 

-Must sample the signal in appropriate sampling interval- filter signal to find maximum frequency (anti-aliasing filter)

-if sampling is not frequent enough, not get clear signal (aliasing)

-sampling too frequent wastes resources (bandwidth)

-proper sampling rate loses no information from original signal (allows for perfect reconstruction of signal)

-appropriate interval varies by waveform speed

-maximum frequency component in signal (2xFmax)

**states that if waveform is sampled at a rate at least, but not exactly equal to, twice the maximum frequency component in the waveform, then the waveform can be exactly reconstructed from the samples without any distortion.  

Predict the future

-adoption

-uses/effects on people and society

(desirable or undesirable; anticipated-intended uses and impacts; unintended-usually indirect and noticed after diffusion;needs and evolution)

explain the past

understanding larger picture

-applying lessons from one technology to another

*see how things are now, see how they were before and make predictions about the future

5 Stages of Diffusion:

1. Awareness

2. Interest

3. Evaluate

4. Trial

5. Adoption

greater role at awareness and information stage

Less of a role at trial and adoption stage

1. innovators

2. early adopters

3. early majority

4. late majority

5. laggards

Diffusion curve is S shaped.

people adopt things at different time. 

Plateau at innovators/early adopters

Steep incline during the take off (almost everyone has it and you cant imagine things without it)

plateaus back off at late adopters. 

- usually requires delay between innovation and diffusion

- rate of adoption proceeds slowly

-diffusion becomes self sustaining with critical mass

-then rate of adoption shoot ups.

- requires other people- when deciding you have to determine who you will communicating with if no one you know has it

-you need to make sure you can totally use the new innovation when buying it. 

- threshold-tipping point

*number required to get people to adopt

*may not be # of people, just the right people

-comm tech relies on interactivity with others

*the more people using tech, the more useful it is.

*leads to long time lag between innovation and mass diffusion (predictable pattern)

-individual level

*Users have different thresholds for adoption (innovators have lower threshold than laggards)

- Receiver's vs. sender's needs

-Assume active audience

-Need to focus on participants needs, purchasing power. 

- cost affordability: varies by target market; need to know who you are marketing to and how much money they have

-Relative advantages of innovation compared to existing:perceived as need;how your product is different and better

-compatibility with existing: does it work with what we already have?

- ease/expense of adoption, trial

- observation and experience of others

-base of users- critical mass

-Policy and regulation

-assumes media have strong effects

-technology causes social change

- technology causes the effects, it causes the change. 

-Assumes social factors cause technological change

-people determine how to use technology and moderate effects. 

-you look at society and you can predict how technology is going to evolve and change what drives technology. 

both factors (technological determinism & social determinism) occur together

social influences play off features of technology

technological factors limit/enable social uses.

Fear of war led to need for "indestructible" comm network

*internet created by department of defense

began with Advanced Research Projects Agency in 60's

*high tech R&D group within pentagon (dept of defense)

*invested millions in advance of computers

*developed arpanet to exchange software and databases (largest use of network was and is email)

**did not want to have a central office so they couldn't totally lose their communication-essentially indestructible.

-Steep increase in rate of adoption of the internet

*Once it took off, one of the most rapid diffusions ever

-in 70's and 80's adoption increased

- in 90's reached critical mass and rate of adoption took off

*2001-estimated 100million in us and canada- double number 12 months earlier

- categorizes media on "salience" of interaction partner

*assumes salience varies based on interface characteristics

*measure cues (audio, video, text) and assumes presence.

-predicts that salience predicted by cues

-arrange media on a continuum of richness

*speed of feedback, types of channels, source, language richness

-assumes people selected media based on richness

-Predicts that absence of cues does not necessarily reduce sociability (Critique of deficit models and "rational choice" models)

-choice depends on factors beyond media cues. (relationship with partner ect.)

- predicts that people adapt their communication behaviors (can compensate for loss of nonverbal cues; make use of any medium of situation to communicate)

-predicts that people will use media that meet their needs

-people will not use media if need not met (assumes active audiences making choice; assumes people are aware of needs to be met)

- surveys people on why use different media (primary uses= relax, info seeking, habit, pass time, entertainment, socialization)

-A psychological theory predicting that people learn by modeling behavior of others (learn how to speak to others from parents, friends: if behavior is rewarded or ignored, repeat it; if behavior punished, not repeated)

-applies to TV and other media (can be good or bad [sex roles, stereotypes]; advertising theories are based on this perspective)

-only a fixed proportion of the economy is available to finance mass communication

-amount of money individuals spend on media (determined by state of economy; change in economy leads to parallel change in spending;) (constant percent of disposable income; oer time as proportion of gross national product)

-People spend predictable amounts on media (percentage of income does not increase for new media)

-Relation between income and spending varies with income level (lower income people spend higher percentage of income- they make less, so same amount is higher percentage; higher income people spend more dollars on media)

-Lacy argues principle of relative constancy is not theory

*it did not accurately predict behavior; it does not explain past

-provide a typology (classification of things by characteristics)

-predict future events

-explain past events

-provide a sense of understanding

-provide the potential to control events. 

-Balance national interests and corporate/private interests

*Reactionary-evolves with technology

~different rules for each medium (broadcasting more restriction than newspapers)

~different rules for varying types of content (political content more freedom than entertainment

-structural regulation

-Amendments apply to protect citizens from government, not corporations

-Balance freedom of press and citizens with Government need for control/protect citizens

*created for printing press and now needs to include technology

right to privacy.

not an explicit right to privacy, you have the right to keep it secure unless they have a reason to look at it.

1. speech

2. press

3. religion

4. assembly

5. petition

instituted a variety of regulations:

- ensure competition, diversity, localism

-justifies structural regulation and ownership (influences regulation of broadcast, content, ect)

- said broadcasters should serve the public interest.

-wanted to protect competition and avoid monopolies.

Recognizes innovation and convergence in telecommunications

congress discontinued cross-ownership and service restrictions

- promote competition and reduce regulation to get lower prices

*phone co's can provide cable

*deregulated ownership restriction

-no consent, warrant or knowledge by employee required

-seizue of employees workplace property must be reasonable in inception and scope

-email search must be reasonableness standard

**reasonable if:

~measures taken are related to objective of search

~information visible/easily available

**not reasonable if:

~no suspicion of work related misconduct

~search more intrusive than necessary

-privacy policies are not enough- lack necessary items to protect consumer privacy

-Profile based advertising- websites and advertisers track:

-Personal Identifiable Info

-Consumer behavior (websites visited, good purchased, web searches)

-demographics

based on the new media model- interactive

-industry backed self-regulation has done little to protect online privacy

capture signals between keyboard and computer

stores them in a file on the PC

automatically sends them to a remote user

requires physical access to a computer

work on the network level on a switch/hub

email messages, web browsing and frequency of network access

-Internet legislation based on broadcast legistlation

(unsolicited info could be delivered)

-Do not take into account differences 

(broadcast spectrum is scarce, internet access is not)

-Main Legislation

*Communication Decency Act(CDA) of 1996- incoporated in telecomm act 1996

*Child online Protection Act (COPA) of 1998

- regulates all online sexual content

makes no distinction between consensual or not, between source or value- political/artistic.

criminalized obscene lewd lascivious filthy and indecent communication through any telecommunication act

concern about chilling effect on computer comm- ended up blocking sites about putting condoms on or STDs

Ruled unconstitutional- too vague and restrictive, outweighed by first amendment.

created despite the ruling against CDA

written as more specific CDA

criminalizes allowing anyone under 17 to access obscene material from web

allows adults to receive it

still a suit pending against this act. 

"any expression that damages your reputation within the community, causes others to disassociate themselves from you, or attack your character or professional ability. 

if provider seen as editor then they are legally responsible- publisher, not distributor is responsible.

- significantly increased the surveillance and investigative powers of law enforcement agencies in the Us

-removed checks and balances system.

-collect info about web browsing, email, person to person activities including people not under criminal investigation- judges only need to be notified (that it has happened not that it is going to happen).

-obtain pen register and trap and trace orders for electronic communication- can monitor any phone, computer they use, anyone they contact0 anything they might use.

- employ sneak and peak warrants: enter home and seize items, notification delayed for undetermined period

-conduct surveillance of computer trespassers through ISPs, univeristies without judicial orders- including illegal downloads. 

-venue shopping

-obtain surveillance or search order even if foreign intelligence is only a significant reason and not the reason

-seize any tangible item without court order

-email/electronic communication surveillance program

-ISPs must attach and FBI box so that their network can be scanned

-can analyze millions of messages per second.

-supposedly capture only info the FBI is authorized to collect. 

(telephone-see video)

-network designed for voice

one to one interactions

lines radiating out

designed for mass communication

-1 signal to many at the same time

signal passes from home to home

-shared cables

problem with new media model. 

-no dedicated circut

-Conversation sent in packets 

*each packet takes unique route. 

breaks everything up into pieces, sends them all different routes to get to the destination and then reassembled. *internet*

- not interactive 

-message received in one block

*stored in central place

*sent and received in one clump

sends everything together, Once one goes at a certain poing you can send more - cannot really utilize yet. 

Introduced by Bell in 1876

ATT had monopoly- Communication Act of 1934

*ATT opened microwave relay system in 1948

*first satellite in 1962

-ATT was given Universal service mandate

-Protected them from anti trust laws

Gave ATT the natural Monopoly. 

-opened long distance to competition

-other can connect to ATT network

-ATT no longer has monopoly. 

Competition brought down the prices of long distance calls. 

-twisted pair made of copper- good conductor of electricity

*always on

*people in 3rd world dig up copper

-Wireless telephones are handheld phones with antenna

-cell phone is 2 way communication technology over radio. 

-designed to stimulate cross media competition

-deregulated phone and cable providers (cable and telephone cost could compete; local and long distance phone providers could compete)

-introduced subsidized universal access mandates (not enforced or implemented)

-Led to Convergence, consolidation (reduced competition; bundling of services)

going digital

national to global

Fiber optics at the last mile.

Voice over internet protocol

voice data is transfered through the internet using TCPIP

no long distance cost

carries 5-10 time the number of calls with the same bandwidth. 

handheld portable phones with built-in antenna (uses two way radio technology)

no need for critical mass

Different services use different spectrum & technology

-cellular

-PCS (personal communication services)

-Satellite Service

-network architecture of cells

-reuse channels with low power transmitter (non adjacent cells; frequencies in cell 1 are reused in other non-adjacent cells (marked 1))

-Handoff (phone travel & cross cell boundaries; they must are switched to a new channel in the new cell)

time division multiple access (TDMA)

*3 callers share same channel*

Code division multiple access (CDMA)

*uses entire spectrum not division across channel*

GMS (group standard mobile)

facilitates international travel with same phone

starting to gain market in the US