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Chapters 10 and 11
Analogical Arguments and Causal Arguments
19
Philosophy
Undergraduate 1
04/22/2012

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Cards

Term
Basic Form
Definition
This one also has property p, so the other one has it too
Term
Criteria for arguments by analogy
Definition
  • The larger the sample the stronger the argument
  • The greater the percentage of the sample that has the property in question, the stronger the argument
  • The greater the # of similarities between the sample and the target, the stonger the argument
  • With regard to a feature that, to our knowledge, the target may or may not have the greater the diversity in the sample the stronger the argument
  • The broader the conclusion the stronger the argument
Term
The Law of Large Numbers
Definition
If I do this enough times than the results would be representative the closer to the underlying properties it would be
Term
Important Questions to consider
Definition

Was it a random sample?

How were the questions worded?

What is the error margins?

Term
Sampling Frame
Definition
A precise definition of a population and of the attribute in which we are interested in. A definition that enables us to know for any individual whether he/she is in the population and whether he/she has the attribute of interest
Term
Representative
Definition
When variables linked to the attribute of interest are present in the sample in the same proportion as in the population
Term
Biased
Definition
When a variable is not present in the sample in the same proportion as in the population
Term
Random Sample
Definition
Selection by a procedure that ensures, that every member of the population has a equal chance of being included.
Term
Error Margin
Definition
Range of random variation (even random damples will not be totally free from bias)
Term
Confidence Level
Definition
At a given level of probability the larger the sample the smaller the error margin for that sample. The level of probability is referred to as :___________
Term
Principles for thinking critically about an inductive generalization from a sample
Definition
  1. Differences between the sample and the population (weakens the argument)
  2. Samples that are too small or too undiversified to represent the population weakens the argument
Term
Analogue
Definition
Things that are said to have similar attributes
Term
The Law of Large Numbers
Definition
The larger the sample population (or the # of observations) used in a test, the more accurate the predictions of the behavior of that sample, and smaller the expected deviations in comparison of outcomes.
Term
Inductive generalization
Definition

A __________ takes a sample of a population and makes a conclusion regarding the entire population.

X percent of observed Fs are Gs

therefore

A percent of all Fs are Gs

Term
Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
Definition
Fallacy is based upon the mistaken notion that simply b/c one thing happens after another the first event was a cause of the second event
Term
Reverse Causation
Definition

Allowing a effect to occure before its cause.

Ex. Tallness is associated with basketball therefore playing basketball will make you very tall.

Term
Ignoring a Common Cause Fallacy
Definition

1. A and B are regularly connected (but no third common cause is looked for)

2. therefore A is the cause of B

Term
Assuming a Common Cause
Definition

Failing to account for other differences between the 2 common events. Failing to account for the fact that my two situations differ in other important respects

 

Term
Blind Study
Definition
A experimental trial in which participants --- the subject or the investigator --- are unaware as to whether they are in the experimental or control arm of the study.
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