Term
| Hindsight bias and judgmental overconfidence |
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Definition
HB: the tendency to believe, after learning and outcome, that one would have forseen it. (Also known as the I-knew-it-all-along phenomenon)
illustrate why we cannot rely solely on intuition |
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| Hindsight Bias...the point to remember |
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Definition
| HB and overconfidence lead us to overestimate our intuition. But scientific inquiry, fed dmy curious skepticism and by humilty, can help us sift reality from illusions. |
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Term
| To sift reality from fantasy requires a scientific attitude... |
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Definition
| being skeptical but not cynical, open but not gullible. |
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Definition
| thinking that does not blindly accept arguments and conclusions. Rather, it examines assumptions, discerns hidden values, evaluates evidence, and assesses conclusions |
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Definition
| an explanation using an integrated set of principles that organizes and predicts observations. |
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Definition
| a testable prediction, often implied by a theory. |
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Term
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Definition
| a statement of the procedures (operations) used to define research variables. For example, human intelligence may be operationally defined as what an intelligence test measures. |
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Definition
| repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding extends to other paricipants and circumstances. |
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Term
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Definition
| making observations, forming theories, and then refining theories in the light of new observations. |
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Term
| the scientifc method: a self-correcting process for asking questions and observing nature's answer. What is this process? |
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Definition
1) theories
ex. Low self-esteem feeds depression
2) hypotheses
ex. People with low self-esteem score higher on a depression scale.
3) research and observations
ex. Administer tests of self-esteem and depression. See if a low score on one predicts a high score on the other.Generate and refine theory...
REPEAT |
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Term
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Definition
| an observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principles. |
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Term
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Definition
| dramatic stories, personal experiences, even psychological case examples - have a way of overwhelming general truths. |
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Term
| Point to remember about CASE STUDIES |
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Definition
| Individual cases can suggest fruitful ideas. What is true of all of us can be glimpsed in any one of us. But to discern the general truths that cover individual cases, we must answer questions with other methods. |
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Definition
| a technique for ascertaining the self-reported attitudes or behaviors of people, usually by questioning a representitive, random sample of them. |
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Definition
| the tendency to overestimate the extent to which others share our beliefs and behaviors. |
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Term
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Definition
| all the cases in a group, from which samples may be drawn for a study. (Note: except for national studies, this does not refer to a country's whole population.) |
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Definition
| a sample that fairly represents a population because each membeer has an equal chance of inclusion. |
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Term
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Definition
| observing and recording behavior in naturally occuring situations without trying to manipulate and control the situation |
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Term
| Best basis for generalizing... |
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Definition
| is from a representative sample of cases. |
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Term
| Before believing survey findings... |
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Definition
| think critically: consider the sample. You cannot compensate for an unrepresentative sample by simply adding more people. |
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Term
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Definition
| a measure of the extent to which 2 factors vary together, and thus of how wewll either factor predicts the other. The correlation coefficient is the mathematical expression of the relationship, ranging from -1 to +1. |
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Term
| perfect positive correlation |
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Definition
| height and weight seem to increase and decrese together |
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Term
| perfect negative correlation |
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Definition
| as toothbrushing increases, tooth decay goes down. |
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Term
| The point to remember about correlation: |
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Definition
| a correlation coefficient helps us see the world more clearly by revealing the extent to which two thigns relate. |
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Term
| The point to remember about correlation 2: |
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Definition
| correlation indicates the possibility if a cause-effect relationship, but it does not prove causation. Knowing that 2 events are correlated need not tell us anything about causation. Remember this. |
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Term
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Definition
| the perception of a relationship where none exists. |
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Term
| The point to remember about illusory correlation: |
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Definition
| when we notice random coincidences, we may forget that they are random and instead see them as correlated. thus we can easily deceive ourselves by seeing what is not there. |
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Term
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Definition
| a research method in which an investigator manipulates one of more factors (independent variables) to observe the effect on some behavior or mental process (the dependent variable). By random assignment of participants, the experimenter aims to control other relevant factors. |
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Term
| Point to remember about cause and effect: |
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Definition
| unlike correlational studies, which uncover naturally occurring relationships, an experiment manipulates a factor to determine its effect. |
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Definition
| an experimental procedure in which both the research participants and the research staff are ignorant (blind) about whether the research participants have received the treatment or a placeo. Commonly used in drug-evaluation studies. |
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Definition
| experimental results caused by expectations alone. |
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Term
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Definition
| the condition of an experiment that exposes participants to the treatment, that is, to one version of the independent variable. |
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Definition
| the condition of the experiment that contrasts with the experimental condition and serves as a comparison for evaluating the effect of the treatment. |
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Definition
| assigning participants to experimental and control conditions by chance, thus minimizing preexisting differences between those assigned to the different groups. |
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Definition
| the experimental factor that is manipulated; the variable whose effect is being studied. |
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Term
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Definition
| the outcome factor; the variable that may change in response to manipulations of the independent variable. |
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Term
| The point to remember about statistical reasoning: |
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Definition
| doubt big, round, undocumented numbers. rather than swallow top-of-the-head estimates, focus on thinking smarter by applying simple statistical principles to everyday reasoning. |
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Term
| The PTR about describing data: |
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Definition
| think smart. when viewing figues in magazines and on television, read the scale labels and note their range. |
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Term
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Definition
| the most frequently occuring score(s) in a distribution, the arithmetic average, the middle score in a distribution |
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Term
| The PTR about mode, mean and median |
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Definition
| always note which measure of central tendency is reported. then, if it is a mean, consider whether a few atypical scores could be DISTORTING it. |
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Definition
| a computed measure of how much scores vary around the mean score |
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Term
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Definition
| a statistical statement of how likely it is that an obtained result occurred by chance. |
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