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Chapter 11 - Temporal Analysis
IACA Certification
35
Criminology
Professional
09/05/2014

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Cards

Term
Define Temporal Analysis
Definition
The study of time.
Term
What are the two reasons we analyze time?
Definition

1. To understand what has already happened

2. To predict what will happen in the future

Term
What are the two elements that are typically combined to identify a discrete temporal location?
Definition
Date and Time.
Term
What does A.M. stand for?
Definition
Ante Meridian
Term
What does P.M. stand for?
Definition
Post Meridian.
Term

When electronically stored,Date and Time data are often merged into a single "date/time" field.

What are the 3 formats used for storing this data?

Definition

1. Text field

2. Numeric field

3. A Specialized date/time field type

Term
Define Temporal Distribution
Definition
How events are situated throughout the study area in relation to one another.
Term
What are the 3 classes of distribution?
Definition

1. Clustered events tend to occur in close proximity to one another.

2. Uniform events tend to occur far apart from one another.

3. Random events are neither clustered nor uniform.

(All can apply to geography or time)

Term
The Nearest Neighbor Test, Ripley's K, and Moran's I are all tests to measure what?
Definition
Distribution
Term

What is tempo?

 

Definition

Tempo is a measurement of tendency

 

 

Term
What are the 3 types of tempo?
Definition

1. Acceleration occurs when the interval between events decreases as the number of events decreases

2. Decceleration occurs when the interval between events increases as the number of events increases

3. Stabilization occurs when the interval between events neither increases nor decreases as the number of events increases

Term
The Least Squares Best Fit method can be applied to a tempogram to calculate what?
Definition
A trend line.
Term

Tempo suffers limitations, one of which being that it does not account for terminal velocity.

 

What is terminal velocity?

Definition
The fastest rate at which events can occur.
Term
In order to make sense of an otherwise chaotic tempo or distribution, we look for ________________.
Definition

Correlations

 

We look for correlations between the interval and other another variable, such as value of goods obtained.

Term
Define the type of temporal falacy known as a spurious relationship.
Definition
A spurious relationship is when two factors have no causal connection, but appear to have one due to a third unknown variable.
Term
What are the 3 questions an analyst should ask when confronted by an apparent temporal correlation?
Definition

1. Is the correlation logical?

2. Is the correlation causal?

3. What have you forgotten?

Term
Interval comparison
Definition
acceleration, deceleration, and stabilization.
Term
Tempogram
Definition
bivariate chart that shows change in time along the x-axis and change in interval on the y-axis.
Term
Velocity
Definition
furthest rate between event that can occur
Term
Correlation
Definition
overlaying of factors to see if influences the relationship of another. Bivariate analysis
Term
Frequency analysis
Definition
the speed with event occur and how many. Is cyclical not linear and based on DOW, DOM, TOD etc.
Term
Variogram
Definition
matrix showing change tween measurements and how one event relates to events after.
Term
Known as "split time"
Definition
midpoint analysis
Term
weighted method
Definition
divide the risk of each crime and then divide the number of hours and add value to each hour as a risk score. Subject to outliers, less arbitrary but can be influenced by timing of cases.
Term
Things to forecast
Definition
timing, frequency and duration.
Term
Types of forecasting
Definition
linear, cyclical and leading indicator.
Term
Linear forecasting
Definition
what will happen based on the overall trend.
Term
Cyclical forecasting
Definition
repeating patterns based on seasons, months.
Term
Leading indicator
Definition
bi-multivariate - a variable that independently predicts outcome of a dependent variable. (example: amount of $ taken determines frequency of hits)
Term
DFT is a form of
Definition
spectral analysis that breaks down a signal and subjects it analysis to identify regular cycles. The cycles determine specific frequency,amplitude and regularity.
Term
In forecasting ___________ are totally predictable
Definition
linear systems
Term
Linear forecasts
Definition
extrapoliate what will happen based on an overall trend (line) that is drawn from the past to the present and carried on into the future.
Term
Linear timing forecasts
Definition
based on intervals between cases, the ability to guess the probable interval from the last known case to the next/future case.
Term
Both _______ and _______ are linked and need to consider one with the other when conducting analysis.
Definition
space and time
Term
Crime will have both _____ and _______ and it will have ___________.
Definition
temporal, spatial and duration.
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