1. cyclical elements-ex. war, economic factors, elections, socialogical pressures.
2. random variation-caused by chance events.
3.  auto correlation-denotes the persistance of an occurence

1. -time horizon to forecast
2.  -data availability
3. -accuracy required
4. -size of forecasting budget
5. -availability of qualified personnel

1. simple-used to forecast demand and removes random fluctuations.
2. weighted-allows a given "weight" to be included in the element so long as the sum = 1.
3.  exponential smoothing-used when the most recent data is more relavant than older.

1. Data Set
2. Elements
3.  Variables

1. -group of data used for a particular study
2. -people, objects, events or other entities described in a data set
3. -any characteristic of an element

=data collected over different time periods

=data collected at the same period or nearly same period of time.

 is a set of all elements about which we wish to draw conclusions.

 is a subset of the population.

Descriptive statistics

statistical inferences

qualitative variables

=the science of describing the important aspects of a set of measurements.

=the science of using a sample of measurements to make generalizations about the important aspects of a population of measurements.

=category variables that simply record the categories that data fall into.

Price=what do we charge

Product=what do we make/provide service

Place=how do deliver the product/service. Promotion=communication of our product/service

geographic=where they live

demographic=age, gender, income psychographic=lifestyle, self concept, self values geodemographic=urban, affluent retirees, exurban,

Benefits= convenience, economy, prestige

Behavioral= occasion, loyalty

value proposition=unique value that product/service provides that its competitors don't

 salient attributes=Aspect of a product by which the consumer tends to judge a product.

symbols=many times it is the trademark or branding power that is unique.

competition=marketers use distinguishing verbage/symbols to differentiate themselves from their competitors in the marketplace

competition=who are they and how many will help determine price

cost=how to stay profitable throughout differing levels of demand

company objectives=goals of company

customers=who are they and what do they value

channel members=manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers

examine relationship between cost, price, revenue and profit among varying degrees of production and sales. Calculate=fixed costs/contributions per unit (price - variable cost)

A formula for Break =Even : Fixed Costs / Price – Variable Costs   [Break-Even = Fixed Cost / GPM]

For Example:

Sales Price per unit = $100
Variable Unit Costs = $60 (COGS)
Gross Profit Margin = $40
Fixed Cost = $100,000

Break-Even = Fixed Costs / (Price – Variable Costs)

Break-Even = $100,000 / ($100 - $60 per unit)

Break Even = $100,000 / $40 per unit

Break Even = 2500 units

variable costs

fixed costs

 are costs that vary with production such as labor and materials.

 remain a constant no matter how many units are produced such as rent, insurance and depreciation of equipment.

monopoly

 oligopoly

monopolistic competition

pure competition

monopoly=one firm controls the market=less price competition=ex. power company

oligopoly=a small amt of firms control the market=price competition is usually reactionary to competitors=ex. airlines

monopolistic competition=many firms selling differentiated products @ different prices=differentiation more prevalant=watch makers

 pure competition=many firms selling commodities for the same prices=very aggressive pricing but through differentiation a company can avoid errosion=farmers

income effect=as our income goes up we tend to buy more higher priced items

 substitution effect=how easy is it for a consumer to replace their focal brand.

cross price elasticity=refers to change in elasticity of complementary products

1. seasonality
2. cyclical
3. random

1. good example is snowblowers
2. good example is inferior goods during a recession
3. good example is ...random