Shared Flashcard Set


Bush Junior
For the final
International Studies
Undergraduate 2

Additional International Studies Flashcards




Prep to Campaign, Condi Rice - 5 central themes F.A. Jan/Feb 2000
1. Ensure that US can deter war, project power, fight in defense of US interests
2. Promote economic growth and pol openness by extending free trade and intl monetary system
3. Renew relationship with allies who share US values
4. Focus on comprehensive relationships with big powers, particularly Russia and China, that can mold character international political system
5. Deal decisively with rouge regimes and hostile powers (terrorism and weapons of mass destruction singled out for mention)
During the campaign
Bush team espoused "realism"
Bush promises a "humble" foreign policy with "moral" clarity
Criticized Clinton/Gore for being too interventionist - extending US troops for nation building
Wants reduced involvement in nation building
US troops are over-extended
But support Clinton's use of force in Kosnovo - won't set deadline for troops to come back
During the campaign - country relations
Proposes withdrawal of ground forces from peacekeeping in Balkans
Advocates refocusing on the neighborhood - better relations with LA (supports NAFTA)
Argue that Washington's relationship with Beijing "is going to change from strategic partner to one of competitor, but can agree over trade)
Support cutting off aid to Russia during Chechen War
Sees China and Russia as competitors, not adversaries
Signals preference for prompt deployment of missile defense
During the campaign - China
Argues for permanent normal trade relations w/ PRC
Supports China's entry into WTO
But supports Taiwan if attacked
During the campaign - Russia and China
McCain sees Putin as "ruthless, ex-Communist apparatchik"
Bush: "it's too early to tell." seek to rebuild strained relations
During the campaign - Signals preference for prompt deployment of National Missile Defense
Since 1983 - many on right continued to push for Strat Missile Defense
Tempo increases when Republicans capture House in 1994 and Senate in 1996
But loopholes needed to get law passed for indefinite postponement. Pres Clinton signed legislation
On Jul 23, 1999, Clinton set out 4 criteria by which to judge whether missile defense was feasible: threat, cost, tech performance, and adherence to ABM as renegotiated with Russia
On 9/1/2000, he said that tech did not yet justify deployment, so postponed to the next president
Assumes Presidency in 2001
Bush has little foreign policy experience
But heads team with significant F.P./Sec Pol experience
VP Cheney - Sec assist to Rumsfeld, Pres Ford's CoS, congressman from WY
Sec State Powell - 35 years of mil experience, adv to Pres Reagan for Natl Security
Sec Def Rumsfeld - Sec Def under Ford, US Amb to NATO, US Cong from Illinois
Advisor to Pres on Nat. Security Condi - great experience on for and sec issues, member for Center for Intl Security and Arms Control, Special Assistants
Rumsfeld, Condi, and Cheney all neo-cons
Critical of US Foreign Policy of both Bush sr. and Clinton after Cold War
Opposed reduction in military expansion
Feels like policy lacked idealism
Failed to promote US interests
Felt that there was a fault of leaving Saddam in power in 1991 in not supporting Kurds and Shiites
Pushing for removal of Saddam
Support of Republic of China and not People's Rep of China
World in permanent struggle of good and evil
America closest to moral good
Suspicious of negotiations - even with allies
Prefer unilateral efforts - lest it subject power to those that can bring good
Hard power over soft - willingness to use mil power
Suspicious of international law
Confident action will result in support from others
Bush is not a neo-con
Believes in restrained foreign policy
Criticized by neo-cons for lack of good support for Israel
Re-emphasizes rejection of nation building
Favors security cooperation to cooperative security
But perhaps neo-con pull being felt
Rejects Kyoto Protocol (Dec 11, 1997)
Missile defense a big issue
Kyoto Protocol
December 11, 1997
Designed to reduce greenhouse gases
Bush refused to sent to Congress for ratifications
Neo-con pull: Missile defense a big issue
Big issue with Project 4 New Amer Century
May Day 2001 - in speech at National Defense Unit: Bush says that he wants to replace ABM treaty with BMD
Spring/Summer 2001- prepare for deployment of ground-based mid-course missile defense system, perhaps at Fort Greenly or Kodiak Island (test place)
7/14/2001: Pentagon conducted 1 simple decoy which public was given to be successful
Test conducted under non-representative conditions
Program Director Ronald Kadish "early indication that everything worked"
Revealed that radar designed to assess hit and failed
12/3/01: Bush give 6 mo. required notice saying that US wants to withdraw from ABM treaty - say that need to defend launches against terrorists and rogue states
Demos/some repubs, allies, and Russia protest
And on Iraq, perhaps neo-con influence felt earlier – at 1st NSC mtg Jan 01
Following 9/11
Bush's policies change dramatically
Immediately announces to his advisors "we are at war"
That evening announces what would be known as the Bush Doctrine
"We will make no distinction between terrorists who committed these acts and those that harbor them"
Oct 7, US begins as mil ops in Afghanistan
Today over 100 K troops
Bush Doctrine
Came to include different elements
Preventative war: US should dispose foreign regimes that represented a potential or perceived threat to American security, even if it's not that immediate
March 2003- America invades Iraq
Spread of democracy around the world: around the world, especially in Middle East, as a strategy of combatting terrorism
Willingness to act unilaterally: Some of these policies were elucidated in National Security Strategy in 2002
National Security Strategy in 2002
"Our goals on the path are clear: political and economic freedom, peaceful relations with other states, and respect for human dignity"
Champion human dignity
Strengthen alliances
Work to defuse regional conflicts
Prevent WMD threats to allies and friends
Grow through free markets and trade
Build democracy
Cooperate with global centers of power
Transform national security structures
"People everywhere want to enjoy the benefits of their labor" - great emphasis of human rights
On championing human dignity
Jan 2002: declared Axis of Evil: Iraq, North Korea, and Iran
Pushed for regime change in Iran, NK, Sudan, South Africa, China
Ignored Iran Pres Mohammad Khatami's willingness to discuss nuke research, support for militant groups, recognize Israel's right to exist
Enter Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005
On preventative war, Bush claimed
Saddam Hussein is a threat to peace, is in collusion with Al-Qaeda, had WMD and didn't use them, is reconstituting nuke program, could have a nuke weapon in a year
We cannot wait for proof - that smoking gun that turn into a mushroom cloud
March 19, 2003: US invades Iraq
On unilateral action: Afghanistan
US had broad support from international community
German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder calls attacks "declaration of war on whole civilized war"
Le Monde - "we are all Americans now"
NATO invokes Art V
Bush declares global war on terrorism
Bin Laden never captured
Al-Qaeda still remained a threat
On unilateral action: Iraq
Many nations supported
UN did not endorse
Key allies (Fr and Ger) failed to support
Afghan and Iraq dogged Bush for rest of presidency
US fails to prepare for situation after direct military confrontation in Iraq
Iraq WMD threat exposed as mirage
Stable gov in Iraq - illusive sectarian conflict advances
Though surge of 30 K troops reduced violence in 2008
Captured enemy fighter combatants and became a domestic and international trial (trials and treatment)
Abuse event 2004-2006: Guantanamo
Afghan and Iraq became most important foreign policy issues of Bush presidency
On working with others to defuse regional conflicts: Middle East
After 9/11 Israel hailed as indispensable ally
But US remains aloof from conflict
US arranges Sharon-Abbas summit
Offers road map to peace
Need compromises but x
2006 Hamas majority
2007 Gaza war
On working on with others to defuse regional conflicts: Cuba
relations remain frozen
Bush Admin - pursued hardline policy, tightened sanctions, refuses help from Cuba in housing prisoners in Guantanamo, accused Cuba of state sponsored terrorism, Rejects changes in relations following 2008 change in presidency to Raul Castro
On working with other to defuse regional conflicts: Mexico and elsewhere in Latin America
Mexico: Relations soared
Elsewhere: many liberal leaders come to power
Some friendly relations: Brazil, Chile
Some hostile: Bolivia and Venezuela
On working with others to defuse regional conflicts: North Korea
1990- discovery of enough plutonium to make atomic bombs
1994 - Clinton accord signed (North Korea halts new weapons programs, US provide 4B in energy aid)
1998 - NK test missile
Bush vetoes bi-lateral talks
2001 - calls Kim Jung Il a pygmy who acts like a spoiled child while starving his people in a gulag the size of Houston
2002 - axis of evil
2003 - six party talks: bear little fruit
2006 - NK tests a nuc (UN approves sanctions - SC res 1718, no nuke test ballistic missile launch but can do satellite)
2007 - NK agrees to terminate nuke program
2009 - renounces its plan to abandon nukes
On working with others to defuse regional conflicts: Pakistan
a nuclear weapons state
seen aiding Taliban
US concerned
some pakistanis may funnel nukes to terrorists
2004 AQ Khan provided Iran, Libya, NK illegal nuke assistance
2007 mounting instability and violence
On working with others to defuse regional conflict: India
Nuke weapon state
Keep India close approach
Budding entente
Bush provide aid toward technology
On working with others to defuse regional conflicts: China
Strategic competitor during 2000 pres campaign
Neo-cons see as major econ/mil threat to us
But admin reluctant to undermine thriving trade relationship
Mini crisis of 2011: US and Chinese planes collided on Hainan Island
Continue to offer arms to Taiwan but minimize impact
US support WTO membership
Colin Powell - 2002 promises constructive and cooperative relationship
Beijing plays key role in dealing with North Korea
Buy policies diverges
Hainan Island Incident
4.01 EP 3E ELINT air craft collided with Chinese interceptor
Chinese pilot killed
EP 3E lands on Hainan Island
Crew returned after 10 days and letter of 2 sorrows (death of Chinese pilot, entering Chinese air space and landing without permission)
Plane eventually returned disassembled
On working with others to defuse regional conflict: Russia
Seeks productive relationship
2001 Bush meets Putin (straightforward and trust worthy, got a sense of his soul, thought of US as a partner, special responsibility of maintaining world peace and security, any unilateral action would complicate process, difficult discussion of NATO and missile)
Support US in Afghan
Opposes US invasion of Iraq
Reported to have given Russian equivalent of finger when asked by Taliban for help
Nukes and BMDs
Bush called AMD treaty: relic of old war
2002 reverses his position - signed strategic offensive treaty in Moscow
US reduce its arms to 1700-2200
Russia's unhappiness with NATO
Over NATO of Ukraine and Georgia
Over plans for missile defense bases in Poland and CZ
Fear effort of encircle
Suspends CFE treaty in 2007 (treaty initially signed in 1990, troops withdraw from Moldova, Georgia and Baltic states not covered in treaty)
Kremlin supposedly involved in
2004 dioxin position of former Ukraine pres
2006 apparent assassination of former KGB intel officer in England
Violence and threats against human rights defenders
2008 Russia attacked Georgia
Russia concerned over US willingness to use force to solve any problem
On cooperating with other main centers of power
Bush rejected Kyoto Protocol on global warming, International Criminal Court, Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, Non-proliferation of small arms and light weapons, protocols to verify chem and bio weapons, ABM Treaty
6 Pillars of AFP
1. Firm commitment to human dignity
2. Strengthen alliances with friends to defeat global terrorism, works to prevent attacks on US and friends
3. If violence erupts or states falter, US will work with friends and partners to alleviate suffering and restore stability
4. Prevent adversaries from threatening US, allies, friends
5. US will seek to ignite new era of global econ growth through free markets and trade
6. US will develop agendas for cooperative action w/ other main centers of global power
1. Firm commitment to human dignity
Rule of law, free speech, limit on absolute power of state, religious and ethnic tolerance, respect for women, respect for property, equal justice under law
Foreign Policy Implications:
US will speak out to violations against human dignity
Use withhold foreign aid to advance (not giving as much money to UN Nations Pop Fund - supposedly support abortion in China)
Make freedom and development of democracy key themes in bi and multilateral efforts (support pro-demo efforts in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Azer leaders welcome to White House but Bush urges democracy)
However on rule of law, Bush doesn't join ICC (origin 2002)
2. Strengthen alliances to defeat global terrorism; work to prevent attacks on US and friends
Terrorism = "premeditated, politically motivated violence - perpetuated against innocents"
US recog that legit grievances exist but no cause justify terrorism
US 1st priority: focus on T orgs with global reach and Ts that require WMD
Foreign Policy Implications: US will seek support of intl community but will not hesitate to act alone and preemptively Bush works with NATO/Eur to fight Taliban in Afghan
But fails to unite Europe in US efforts in Iraq. Coalition of 38 countries does not include Fr, Ger, Russia, and China. Does not get formal approval from UN
3. If violence erupts or state falters, US will work with friends and allies to alleviate suffering and restore stability
US will invest resources in building intl relationships to help manage
US will recognize that resources are finite
Foreign policy implications:
dependence on allies, priority on those who help themselves, but also after a slow start, Bush signals in resumption of peace talks between Israel and Palestine (proclaims desire for Palestinian state, outlines road map for peace, but denounces PLO Arafat, by beginning of 04 plan seems dead, Apr 04 - Bush supports PM Sharon's plan to disengage from Gaza, but keeps settlements in West Bank
Before the events of 9/11, what was the Bush administration’s attitude toward al-Qaeda?
Thought they were chump change (Condi). Not someone you would need to worry about, with 9/11 we knew what but not where
What evidence was available prior to the 9/11 attack that might have been acted upon in order to prevent/mitigate the attack?
For private reasons we weren’t connecting the dots, knew about an attack, it wasn’t taken seriously though
Who were the “Vulcans?”
Bush’s national security team, named after Roman God of fire, impressive team, has a secretary of defense (Dick Cheney); Cheney is a congressman from Wyoming, chief of staff under President Ford, C Rice as National Security Advisor - really bright lady, brings in Colin Powell as secretary of state - was as Reagan’s national security advisor
What was the “de-Baathification” of Iraq and what was its effect?
Baathist are a minority sect, those were guys in power, what we decide to do is rid the government of them, we do away with the army
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