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Definition
| simplified representations of some reality |
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Term
| what is the most sophisticated type of model? characteristics |
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Definition
computational model:
A computational model attempts to emulate some aspect or subset of the world
A computational model attempts to correctly represent the progression through time of that subset of the world |
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| name the most basic kind of model |
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Definition
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Term
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Definition
If I witness the emergence of a problem, a growing gap between what I would like and what is happening, I expect that the problem will continue to grow at the same trajectory unless something else intervenes
A mental model operates with a relatively simple rule-set, statements about what to do in different situations |
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Term
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Definition
difference between what I would like to see happening in a particular arena and what is actually happening
Gap = Desired value of variable - Actual value of variable |
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Term
| rule of thumb regarding gaps |
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Definition
If the difference between what is desired and what is happening in a numerical measure that captures change in the arena exceeds 20% of the absolute value of that variable, there is a gap
Else, there is no gap because the difference is (relatively) too small to have a significant impact |
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Term
| a rule-set regarding gaps changing for mental models |
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Definition
| If Gap is changing, the amount the gap will get larger or smaller will be the same as the degree of change between the last time I looked and now |
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Term
| next to the most basic kind of model? |
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Definition
| articulated models is a subset of mental models. nickname:coherent description |
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Term
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Definition
Articulated models are those mental models expressed to others, a small subset
Articulated models are descriptions of how things relate to each other
Articulation imposes some degree of coherence
Articulated models can be compared
Superior articulated models can be identified |
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Term
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Definition
| In a situation where the amount of change depends on the starting point, an exponential growth model is superior to a linear growth model |
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Term
| An Alternative Mental Model process |
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Definition
Monitor a variety of indicators that reach at or measure fundamental processes
For those indicators where a consistent gap emerges, try determine whether a process that causes the gap is an exponential growth process
If yes, expect that the problem will get increasingly worse in an accelerating manner unless something is done to offset the effect of that process
Else, use decision-rule of the original mental model
An articulated model shown to be superior should be able to be incorporated into a mental model |
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Term
| An Alternative Mental Model process |
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Definition
Monitor a variety of indicators that reach at or measure fundamental processes
For those indicators where a consistent gap emerges, try determine whether a process that causes the gap is an exponential growth process
If yes, expect that the problem will get increasingly worse in an accelerating manner unless something is done to offset the effect of that process
Else, use decision-rule of the original mental model
An articulated model shown to be superior should be able to be incorporated into a mental model |
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Term
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Definition
| formal model, subset of articulated, which is a subset of mental. |
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Term
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Definition
Formal models are, in turn, a small subset of articulated models
Formal models are those articulated models expressed using a language that imposes strong logical rigor such as algebra, differential calculus, or predicate calculus in mathematics
Many different types of formal models have been developed |
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Term
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Definition
Computational models are that subset of formal models put into a form that can be represented in a computer algorithm
Through the running of the algorithm, a series of steps, a computational model can simulate “stepping” through time by the object or process described by the formal model
Computational models can be and often are aggregations of formal models |
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Term
| What is the hierarchy of systems? |
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Definition
Simple systems
Stepped systems
Goal-seeking systems
Adaptive systems
Purposive systems |
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| Example of a simple system? |
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Definition
| wages, unemployment, and inflation affect economic Well Being |
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Term
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Definition
Simple systems are a limited number of objects connected in simple ways
Simple models of social processes encompass the set of factors that make something change
A simple model consists of a thing that changes because of a change in something else (one example being a dependent variable) with that something else being some set of explanatory factors (or causal variables) |
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| Example of a Stepped System |
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Definition
| labor legislation affects wages and so does GDP. GDP affects unemployment. Wages and unemployment affect Economic WB |
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Term
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Definition
Stepped systems incorporate chains of causation
A thing that changes the dependent variable is in turn dependent upon something else
Recursive simultaneous equations models represent stepped systems |
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Term
| examle of a goal-seeking system |
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Definition
| same as step but now from economic WB, goes to reality goals gap and a separate thing that creates the gap is the actual goals which the gap affects decision making which affects a different part of the system like teh GDP. |
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Term
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Definition
Goal-seeking systems attempt to reach some desired end-state, usually an equilibrium
The chain of causation includes at least one feedback loop, a linkage from some point in the chain back to an earlier point in the chain
A goal-seeking system needs at least one negative feedback loop, feedback that creates a tendency to go in one direction, a desired end-state
Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand” is a set of negative feedback loops that work to stabilize an economy |
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| Example of an Adaptive System |
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Definition
| same as goal-seeking but when the decisions dont really change the reality goals gap they change the decision making mechanism |
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Term
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Definition
Adaptive systems are those goal-seeking systems that change course and do different things as circumstances change (including changing goals)
They have sets of rules (rule-sets) that define what the behavior should be in different situations
Adaptive policy making is emerging as a field of study
The goal is to make governance or management systems that are both more robust and effective at coping with changing environments
SSMs create variable tariff or quota levels depending upon what imports and prices are doing in a country |
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Term
| Example of a Purposive System |
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Definition
| same as adaptive but now the goals can change which will change the goals gap which change decision making |
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Term
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Definition
Purposive systems evaluate and choose among possible courses of action by conducting “what-if” analyses using the courses of action as scenarios
The scenarios are executed in a model of the world (or part of it) under consideration
Those models can range from simple mental models to complex computational models |
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