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| Only time public gets to speak authoritatively. Results matter, and it holds politicians accountable. |
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VO Keys said that it is the opinion held by private parties which government finds it prudent to heed. Public refers to the adults who share in a common government.
Opinion refers to verbal expressions of unobservable attitudes. |
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| Choosing candidates: 19th century |
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| Chosen by party. People get together in backroom, decide people and they run. It was party-centric. |
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| Choosing candidates: 20th century |
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Turns to candidate centric. Five ways of getting chosen:
Conventions: meeting of party elites, usually pretty small and active members.
Caucus: open meetings of party members.
Closed primary: only party members can vote.
Open primary: anyone can vote for candidates in one party.
Blanket primary: voters can vote in any party's contest for each office. |
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low voter turnout can dramatically effect elections
People get more party focused, or lean more towards political spectrum in primary. Then need to go more moderate during elections. |
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Local and state officeholders.
3/4 from business, banking, law, others from education, journalism, public service.
Amateurs in time of upheaval "actors, athletes and astronauts"
Women do as well as men when women run |
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| center around a candidate, narrative not issues, idealized campaign images. |
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| Aggregate level: how many voted? # of votes cast/# of eligible voters. Individual level? did you vote? |
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| Importance of race, midterm versus presidential years. Importance of issues. Voter characteristics. |
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| When people vote: political context |
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Negative campaigning, possible turnoff.
media, more coverage more voters.
competitiveness: more votes if more competitive
mobilization: bush in 2004, obama in 2008. |
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party identification, incumbency.
Candidates: perception of personal characteristics.
Issues: especially important in economy. |
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| incumbents easier to win, unless tied up in scandal, quality challenger, breaking from one's own district on important issue, redistricting. |
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| Four characteristics of opinion: |
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Direction: like or not like
Intensity: really like or hate
Stability: have you always thought this?
Salience: how important is this to you? |
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| straw poles vs scientific poles |
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Definition
| straw poles survey those in attendance. Scientific poles random sampling, sample size can be about 1500 which will have +-3% margin of error. |
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| Polling Issues: Question wording |
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| double barreled questions, phrasing issues, priming, internal polls vs independent polls, answer format, question order: priming identities, sampling error (not using cell phones), |
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| more influential political attitude, psychological infinity with a party, central to almost all political positions. |
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| many attitudes are unstable, same people, same questions, different answers. |
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Surveillance: monitor the political world
Interpretation: why it is important
Socialization: help the world realize a social aspect
Manipulation: hoping to change something bad |
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| What does the media cover: |
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exceptional events, not ordinary ones.
Subjective judgments: news is the product made by decision of journalists, editors, owners. |
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Political norms and sources: details are easy, issues are hard.
Economic concerns: profit focus, eyeball delivery system, fear of losing audience. |
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| Impact media has on people |
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subtle effects, doesn't directly impact what people think.
Agenda setting: increased coverage of something causes people to think about it.
priming: as coverage increases, so does the likelihood that people will use that issue when rating a leader's performance.
framing: how media defines the essential problem (episodic vs thematic) |
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| Third parties rarely win. Electoral laws shape party development. Winner take all with electoral college. |
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| Have one election, and then take the top two. |
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| Alternative #2: Multiple Member Districts |
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| 2 or more reps per district: each voter has as man votes as representatives allocate as he/she sees fit. Maybe a district is represented by two people. |
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| Alternative #3: Proportional Representation |
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| each party's representation in legislature is proportional to its percentage of the total votes. |
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| vehicle for dissent within party. |
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| Barriers: Major party strategies |
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| delegitimize candidate, co-opt issues: campaign governing. |
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| When do third parties do well? |
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appealing, charismatic candidates.
disillusionment with both major parties
barriers to new voters are low |
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| In elections, rules matter |
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Definition
institutional rules shape party system,
different rules would mean different system,
american politics is favored two parties
third parties face steep uphill climbs |
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parties are logical development
american system requires successive majorities to make change
parties help organize conflict |
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| What is an interest group? |
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Definition
| private organization trying to shape public policy, small scale, have focus and membership. |
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| Types of interest groups: |
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cooperations
trade/business association
professional association
unions
citizens/civil rights groups
other |
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| Public vs private interest groups |
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Private: fraction of community or nation, seek policies for own benefit.
Public: act in interest of public as a whole |
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Inside, direct lobbying. Former insiders, out of public view, Personal ties.
Congress: sympathetic, influential members, committees, staffers. Information, drafting, research.
The outside game: indirect lobbying, grassroots organizing. |
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| Political action committees: |
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| organized for the purpose of raising and spending money to elect and defeat candidates. Limits on amount given: $5,000 to candidate per election, $15,000 to party, another $5,000 to another PAC. |
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| What do interest groups want? |
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| votes, access, attention/activity/give rewards (thanks for past action, keep up good work) |
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| Why do people join interest groups? |
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| selective incentives, pride/self-esteem, personal relationships, organizing entrepreneurs. |
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| Who joins interest groups? |
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| more educated, more income, more skills. |
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| Contrast to social movements |
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Definition
| drawing on disruptive power of people, bottom up theory change. about the mass public as much as elected officials. |
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