Term
| What are the potential problems with measuring public opinion? |
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Definition
1. Self-selection
2. Exclusion |
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Term
How does one get a (near)
random sample? |
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Definition
Phone surveys & random-digit dialing
-Cost-effective and fairly reliable today
Random sample of all addresses and show up at the door
It is time consuming and expensive
Polls by academic organizations are the highest quality -American NES
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Term
What are the key components of Public Opinion Surveys?
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Definition
•Random Sample
•Sampling Error
•Question Wording & Question Selection
•Response Rate
•Measurement of Intensity
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Term
| Party Identification (PID) |
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Definition
Definition: A person’s ingrained loyalty to a political party and emotional attachment to it.
•“I am a Democrat/Republican”
PID is:
•A psychological attachment
•A group identity
•A running tally of evaluations of the parties over time
PID provides a powerful perceptual screen through which we evaluate the political world
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Term
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Definition
Definition: A consistent pattern of political attitudes that stem from a core belief
One dimension or many?
•Common to think about politics in general Liberal vs. Conservative terms
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•Since the 1930s (the New Deal), Liberal vs. Conservative defined in terms of the role of government intervention in the economy and social welfare
liberal means more active governmental intervention to promote equality; Conservative means less intervention
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Term
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Definition
Few citizens hold consistent political ideologies
Few citizens have substantial factual knowledge about politics or government
Many citizens don’t care about many issues
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Term
| Does an uninformed public matter? |
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Definition
Gives the government leeway to respond to more narrow interests in some specific policy areas
Allows political leaders to compete to “inform” the public
However, macro (i.e., aggregate) public opinion behaves reasonably
•Cancels out individual noise, errors, etc.
•Opinion leadership
•Aggregate Public Opinion as a Thermostat
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Term
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Definition
•How issues become “structured” along a party-driven, left-right dimension
•Issues initially cross-cutting…then a critical moment
E.g., race & civil rights policy pre-Goldwater in 1964
Issue dimensions = the structure of party politics
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Term
What is the calculation of rational voting? |
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Definition
Vote if P(B) - C > 0
P = Probability your vote will be decisive
B = Difference between having one candidate versus another in office
(B= How much do I like McCain – How much do I like Obama)
C = The cost of voting (e.g., registering, going to the polls, etc.)
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Term
Who becomes active in politics?
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Definition
•Better educated
•Wealthier
•More extreme ideologies/views on issues
•Younger (for some activities anyway)
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Term
What other ways to activiely participate in politics aside from voting?
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Definition
•Working for a candidate/party
•Contributing money
•Attending rallies or events
•Social movements
•Involvement in civic organizations
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Term
| What influences an individuals voting choice? |
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Definition
Individual characteristics
•PID
•Ideology
•Race/Ethnicity
•Gender
•Income
Institutional factors
•Sequence of Primaries followed by General
Elections
•Winner-take-all elections
•Two-party system structures choices
Campaign-specific factors
•Health of the economy
•Foreign affairs
•Candidate quality & campaign themes
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Term
What shapes campaign strategies?
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Definition
Personal views and reputations
Why vote for you? – advantage over opposition
Current events
Primaries vs. general election
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Term
What are some things campaigns DO NOT do? |
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Definition
DO NOT change voters’ views on issues
DO NOT allow candidates to change positions without severe scrutiny
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Term
What are some things campaing DO DO? |
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Definition
DO contrast candidates…affecting public perceptions of the candidates
Candidates attempt to highlight their own positive features
Highlight negative attributes of opposition
DO establish perceived importance of issues |
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Term
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Definition
Most presidential elections can be reliably predicted at start of campaign season
Yet, public opinion moves systematically during general election campaign
Campaigns = Information Flow
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Term
Talk to me about Partisan Realignment |
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Definition
[image]Change in dominant party control of government
–Usually widespread: e.g., presidency, Congress, many state legislatures, etc.
[image]Abrupt change after 1-2 election cycles
–Usually due to divisive issues
[image]Durable (or lasting) partisan change
–Historically, 36 years or so between realignments
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Term
What type of Minor Parties exist?
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Definition
–Single-Issue Parties
–Factional Parties
–Ideological Parties
–Is a strong third party possible?
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Term
Talk to me about minor parties, BITCH |
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Definition
[image]hurt by single-member, winner-take-all system
[image]ballot restrictions
[image]lack of public and private funding
[image]voter fears of “throwing away vote”
[image]often far from ideological center
[image]Can swing elections
–Nader in 2000 made Bush the president??
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Term
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Definition
[image]Caucus – a meeting where candidates are nominated by a small number of party leaders and officeholders
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Term
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Definition
[image]Convention – delegates attend conventions which nominate candidates for public office
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Term
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Definition
[image]Primaries - voters choose party candidates
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