Term
| Iraq and Afghanistan: Exit Strategies |
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Definition
War on Terror
in 1980’s was difficult to say War on Terror because there was a containment policy underway
2001, not this problem but a void.
9/11 gave AMF an underlying theme--war on terror
we do not see a global prescense or global sharing
94% of Iraq war fatalaties are American
small British losses and the other combined
This obviously is an American War
In Afghanistan, 73% of fatalities are US
less because NATO, 2001 , that NATO has an org. defined a attack on one of it’s members as being sufficient to evoke collective security/self defsense;1st time collective securities are evoked with NATO because NATO went to war in self defense |
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Term
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Definition
The two wars and war on terror closed out the decade
1990’s Cold War’s End -- ending peacefully on US’s terms, a unipolar moment
Collapse of the USSR
Gulf War, Yugoslav Wars ; Both impressive - Prowess of US on display
had great economics!
-2000-2010
September 11 , 4 planes, major security lax at major airports with 3 planes hitting intended targets
Afghanistan and Iraq Wars - things got very sticky, in Iraq we faced a quagmire
Great Recession |
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Term
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Definition
Ending the War
Fighting the War: Goals, Objectives, Strategies
The Reason for Going to War
the three obvious stages of Armed Conflict |
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Term
Multiple Options
September 11 ---> Sept 12. |
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Definition
Sept 12, morning after, got up , get a sense of what happened and figure out how to respond and where to go from here regarding what happened to our nation, What do we do about this?
SO many options that we could have done in the aftermath |
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Term
Policy: Global War on Terror
After 9/11 USA chose: |
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Definition
War, Occupation and Nation- Building
we could have just gone the war path like we previously did, but we decided to occupy and nation build
Pres. turned so far because of this, he had previously said in debates nation building is over and we are going to be humble and be a great power we are |
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Term
| War Againist Terror States |
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Definition
-Define the terrorists, and then connect them
Here, Terrorists connected to Al Qaeda ; undisputable
Then we had to connect to a place, the place is Afghanistan
we were warning them for years to seperate from him
Taliban is the Gov. , associated with the base Al Qaeda of the terrorist organization
then we connected to Iraq, it was harder to connect because not a lot of common with Bin Laden, only thing Saddaam and Bin Laden had in common was they wanted to kill eachother
US made argument that they were connected, which was a very weak argument to make but it was insufficiently challenged because American Public bought it |
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Term
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Definition
never dreamt would end the way it ended and would last the amount of time it did
we wouldve stayed past 2011, if the Iraqi Parliment would have gotten along to have us stay, but they didnt, both leading parties wanted us to stay but they didn’t |
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Term
| The Costs of The Iraq War |
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Definition
American Casualties
Financial cost, a little more difficult to pin down
Policy Costs, what it costs us as a nation in terms of our focus elsewhere |
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Term
| US Fatalities in the Iraq War |
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Definition
-surge in order to tell Tsunis we are the only viable people to be with
invasion to before surge
the number keeps growing, 4,485 American Deaths
97% of Deaths since “ Mission Accomplished” |
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Term
| Financial Burden of The Iraq War |
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Definition
Initial Estimate - $40,000,000,000
figured oil revenue would take care of it
Reality- 1 trillion dollars, 25 to 1 ratio, cost 25x more than anticipated! |
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Term
| Additional Costs of Iraq War |
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Definition
Equipment Replacement
Caring for Wounded
additional costs ; ex. inflation
Book written called the 3 trillion dollar war |
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Term
| Policy Costs of the Iraq War |
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Definition
-Usa - Relations with Allies, Mexico wanted to be on SC so badly, they finally got on council and had to confront US asking Mexico asking them to support the Gulf war, they said no, we cancelled cinco de mayo the following year
Relations with enemies
Missed Opportunities
Diversion of Energies |
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Term
| Security Council violations |
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Definition
with end of Kuwait war
our military and their military general sat down and we gave them in great detail of what they can and cant have
Let hussein keep his helicopters on person, he used them to put down revolts in the country
flew places shouldnt go, etc. Asking for it
Bush in 2002, said Sadaam is a problem and if they don’t deal with him, we will do it. Said he was getting weapons of WMD
After this stern warning of America, we went to victim of 9/11 to the world bully |
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Term
| Failed Efforts at Multilateralism |
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Definition
| Collin Powell said things he never thought he would ever say |
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Term
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Definition
We blame the French for not saying yes for support for us
Changed “French Fries” to “freedom fries”
boycott france |
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Term
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Definition
amazing display of military capability
Invasion strategy, like to go in from North and South - don’t want to push them out of Baghdad, want to crush them in there; come in through Turkey and Kuwait
they would not have been able to go east into Iran
Turkey would not let us use their territory, so we could only come from south
everyone then disapated when we came from the south, so toppling became merely pushing over |
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Term
| Why We Didn’t Blame Turkey? |
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Definition
we did the same thing after WW1 and WW2
they really cost us |
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Term
| Trouble Maintaining Public Order |
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Definition
invasion of small number
iraq not overwhelming # of troops, esp. compared to 91’
looting munitions |
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Term
| The Provisional Government |
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Definition
everyone looking to future to look towards a new Iraq
need stability,etc.
Iraq under hussein is obviously over
Bridging gap between old and the new Iraq is the Coalition Provisional Authority
running another country while it rebuilds and can stand on its own two feet
there from April 2003- June 2004 |
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Term
| Cheif Executives of the CPA |
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Definition
1st director of the CPA - Jay Garner 2003
one big problem:
Resisted Pressure to Fire The Baathists
De-baathification -The American Decision to not dismiss all members of Husseins party |
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Term
| The Provisional Authority |
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Definition
CPA
funded by Department of Defense
that man would report straight to Sec. Defense, Sec. State , CIA
Then reports to Pres and the NSC |
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Term
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Definition
| DEEP policy divide over what step to take next |
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Term
| Cheif Executives of the CPA |
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Definition
Jay Garner had to leave
L. Paul Bremer came in 2004,
first order in first 4 days, order of de-ba’athification |
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Term
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Definition
Saddam, Elite Guard, gov’t Officials, National Army, police, sanitation works, teachers, engineers, Dr’s , Lawyers, etc.
Many people just join to get a job, because couldn’t be promoted without being a member
we fired them all, 50-100,000 people
they were infuriated because they were victimized by saddam |
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Term
| Response to De-Ba’athification |
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Definition
| They rebelled, and blamed us for it |
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Term
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Definition
emerged in response to De-Ba’athification
mostly Tsuni, some Baathists
Man named Chilabi was architect of De-ba’athification
he was a thief, ridiculous, was main source of intel of WMD |
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Term
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Definition
-largely spared
not attacked, pretty stable, no reason to go there
de-ba’athification here, the insurgents begin to take over for police who were fired because the de-ba’athification
massive attack, charred 4 of our officers and hung them from a bridge and celebrated |
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Term
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Definition
Torture, humiliation, deaths
house of horrors Saddam used for his prisoners
now the world is saying US is no different from him
our global image collapses |
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Term
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Definition
great large turn out
Constitution written
Parliament held
state sovereignity signed over |
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Term
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Definition
| We will only stay to help people when we are welcomed |
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Term
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Definition
| Shia Mosque blown up, Tsuni broke up , now a very real prospect of Civil War in Iraq |
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Term
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Definition
rises out of country that has seen nothing but violence and war for half a century
not allowed to applaud at soccer matches or anything; they are literally afraid to breath
people beaten for not having long enough beards; women beat for not going places with male family members |
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Term
| Failed Efforts to Strike and Accord |
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Definition
| 1997- Unocal invited Taliban members to Sugarland, Texas |
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Term
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Definition
Get oil from Caspian, through Afghanistan down through allies, don’t have to worry about Iraq, etc.
Ultimately didn’t work out because Taliban was too close to Bin Laden |
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Term
| Bin Laden’s Return to Afghanistan |
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Definition
| very dangerous and well connected to the taliban |
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Term
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Definition
not a great military force
came in from the North
-Northern Alliance, a lot of bad people |
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Term
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Definition
the major powers, went to Berlin, discussed what Afghanistan would look like post-Taliban
were not paying attention to culture or customs
needed fewer politicians and more anthropologists at table to bring that up |
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Term
| Countering the Insurgency |
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Definition
We didn’t die here like in Iraq, because of the location
they are out in the country
however, in Iraq location was a main force , not like here |
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Term
| Re-Emergence of the Taliban:2008/2009 |
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Definition
| we were fighting for 7/8 years, and we only control 3% of territory by 2009. Taliban is on rise |
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Term
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Definition
went away until he felt he needed to
could win an election
he is future of the country |
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Term
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Definition
makes things more complicated
our main supply route begins in Pakistan, we depend on them for war supplies in Afghanistan |
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Term
| Our Missions in Afghanistan |
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Definition
Go after Al Qaeda and Bin Laden, Go after Taliban
Opium Eradication- as long as it’s out there, the farmers wont be productive members of society
demining
refugee assistance
counter-insurgency Operations
National Army
Aid, law and order, economic development, education
ETC. SO MANY ----- > MISSON IMPOSSIBLE
you are asking the US military to shoulder an enourmous burden which we do not want them doing |
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Term
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Definition
| monthly basis, 4,8, occasionaly 20 or more but there is a clear trend line upward in 2009,10,and 11’ |
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Term
| Negotiating With The Taliban |
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Definition
-USA and Taliban
German Spy Service Set it up |
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Term
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Definition
| -in previous wars where the more powerful needs to humble self by negiotiating end to war with the smaller yet victourious opposistion |
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Term
| US-Vietnamese Negotiations: 1972 |
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Definition
-war needs to be over, jopordizing re-election
-we made the negotiation and war ended, awarding a Nobel Peace Prize to Both Negotiators |
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Term
| US-Taliban Talks 40 years later |
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Definition
we need to because we could definitely get shot up wile leaving, just like the Brits did previously
we would much rather negotiate so we do not get hurt as leaving |
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Term
Ending The War
Mr. Obama’s Campaign Platform |
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Definition
talked about
The “Right” War
Afghanistan viewed as just and right in response to 9/11, in pursit of Al qaeda
renewed effort
The Diversion
diversion from the task at hand, to Iraq, diverted to Iraq while taking focus away from Afghanistan
Withdrawal from Iraq |
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Term
| Pres. Obama's War Strategy |
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Definition
Iraq
transistion responsibilities
reduce US troops
-Afghanistan
-transfer troops
wage counter-insurgency
In addition, says he will close Gitmo Base in Cuba |
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Term
| Gitmo’s Declining Population |
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Definition
Population skyrockets to almost 700, and now consistent decline over time
people picked up Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, etc. who we thought we could use because they were connected to the War on Terror
At Obama’s inaguration, low amount of people
Most probably, a lot are dead
Promise unfullfilled, probably realized the last 200 are so dangerous , we can not let them go
we couldn’t prosecute because our intelligience would be exposed, so we need to wait them out probably because no one would want them, until they ulitmately die
China is the only people who want their people back ever, because they would kill people very quickly |
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Term
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Definition
Surge as promised in afghanistan
started with 7000 troops, but explosion happens and we triple our troop numbers when Obama was elected
Down in Iraq and Up in Afghanistan
now we have about double troops in Afghanistan that we had in Iraq War |
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Term
| Usama Bin Laden: More Important For Obama |
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Definition
When they asked Bush what he thought about where Osama was, he said he didn’t really think about it; he wasn’t really powerful he didn’t have his base anymore
Obama , had to get him to get public support because then war doesn’t go unjustified |
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Term
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Definition
Why 2014 in afghanistan?
this was the payoff, this was the price we needed to pay for the surge
we wanted a dozen other countries to surge with us, we all put troops together in danger to go after Al qaeda, and the Europeans said they weren’t okay with a war without an end
Obama said okay, and said it will end in 5 years and we will all be out then in 2014
they took the deal
no matter what, it will be done , not even because mission accomplished, just because thats the agreement
if you put Americans in that country, the more will die there
if we bring down the number of troops, logic tells us the number will go down; vice versa |
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Term
| The Lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan |
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Definition
It’s harder to get out than get in
oldest lesson in military history
especially if you are a dominant military power
Liberators become occupiers
Hard Power Does not Change Minds
it is the soft that has to go with it, the sense on the ground that the people there are supposed to be there
War is Hell
Implications we learn a lot from |
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Term
| Privatizing War and Foreign Policy |
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Definition
| began in 1960’s with efforts to save money, took a lot of steam in 1980’s |
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Term
| Private Security Corps Personnel |
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Definition
started out with 6000, peaking around 16000, the ones officially hired by the pentagon, we don’t know how many contractors they contracted out too
hard to tell difference from the military |
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Term
| Problems with Private Armies |
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Definition
-Few US laws apply to Contractors
where do you prosecute them?
Limited Federal Oversight
don’t have the congress or general accounting office with sort of a formal oversight
-The Usual Military Rules don’t apply to them
-Loyalty to Contracts, not country
Low Level of Accountability |
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Term
| An Observation About Advisors |
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Definition
-Theres a right and a wrong way - both paths not worn out a lot either
Stacking the Deck- much more common |
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Term
| JFK;s ExComm: The Right Way |
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Definition
| picked advisors of diff. age, political identification, background, etc. |
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Term
| George W. Bush: The Wrong Way |
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Definition
the groupthink, loyalty to the group is very important and very little dissent
info that contradicts the prevailing view is dismissed as unrealiable
if you challenge, you are out of job |
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Term
| Barack Obama: Stacking The Deck |
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Definition
they may not even realize they are doing this
see it in a way we don’t normally
he did it initially in a reverse fashion
he had people who didn’t agree with him first;can;t just walk out without things collapsing, etc. Also go careful with Afghanistan
General Commanding officer in Afghanistan, and NSA
all of these men said stay the fight
in many ways he stacked the deck againist his own platform the way he brought in the people
The public is beggnining to say why are we still in the war?
He needed some people on the end the war side of it
NSA replaced by someone who supports views by thomas donnalen, move General Commanding officer into something diferent
suddenly, the deck is stacked, to let the pres. more easily extracate the US from Iraq |
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Term
| Media Adresses 3 types of issues |
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Definition
Emerging, Transitory, enduring.
Can be formal or infomal sources
princple aim of the media is financial success
freedom of the press embedded in our constitution |
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Term
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Definition
have been around for a long time, we have dealt with for decades
high profile, news worthy |
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Term
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Definition
enduring issues start here
have potential and grow over time
i.e western debt |
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Term
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Definition
just during transistion
Egypt, Syria
-failed to tell us that hassad had a small percentage of the public |
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Term
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Definition
| Information, Adgenda Setting, Investigation & Oversight, Tool of foreign policy makers |
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Term
| -Information- the provision of info |
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Definition
-what the founding fathers had in mind
American media” the best” in the world |
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Term
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Definition
| the media focus has an enourmous impact on us |
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Term
| Investigation and Oversight |
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Definition
keeping an eye , not formal, on what the gov. doing
“ the watch dog service” |
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Term
| -Tool of foreign policy makers |
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Definition
leaks ( most notabely)
very frequently, they leak to the media--> leak to see what national response is, or if you want to undermine an opposistion |
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Term
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Definition
between media and president; foreign policy elites
these media makers can turn up the heat significantly
1. Media Challenge
thats what they are there to do
more than 100 assigned to white house
Interest by the President to Restrict Information
Intention
i.e not publically showing the casket of those killed in afghanistan
Attempts to Manage the Media
by Pres. and advisors, with the timing of news releases
to get the world to watch, must show the speech is going to come
during war time in war zones, etc.
4. Adversarial Journalism
the jounralists all fighting eachother for the top run on the ladder
the wow effect, to say something shocking or stunning
Partisan Journalism
in general they are center left and left
opens up a market for the right area
the public is a bit more bell shaped
more likely to interview eachother
don’t quite get the give and take of left/right
6. Comedy Media
i.e john Stewar/ stephen Colbert
different realm |
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Term
Relationship Between Presidents and The Media
Phase |
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Definition
2013 ------------------> 2017
always begins at Phase 1
Phase 1
honeymoon, they get along pretty well early off
the media tends to convey info about new admin
aren’t many policies out there that the media could sink teeth into
during this phase, the pres. is happy with the media and promises to have lots of media presentations,etc.; they all promise this and fail to do it
doesnt last too long
-Phase 2
-Adversarial Phase- begins when the president becomes vulnerable
i.e Bill Clinton
things to cristicise, policies that aren’t working out so well
i.e Obama saying Gitmo not closed a year later
-Phase 3
The Re-election Phase
now so many other targets there are
there are other people talking about pres. politics, policy, foreign policy, etc.
i.e 1992- 7 of them, drew a lot of focus away from Pres.
turns into..
-Phase 4
place in history phase
as year 7 comes up, all presidents come up to this
- these phases are not a lot different from the 2nd terms of Presidents because we are getting all new advisors along the way |
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Term
| State of the World’s Oceans |
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Definition
different type of foreign policy challange because the oceans are a resource
we hear about oceans always, but we never think of well-being of the oceans |
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Term
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Definition
The explosion of the nuclear plant
a lot of the radioactive material went up into the clouds, and then less than a week and a half the radioactive material hit the US coasts
the radioactive material is very rapidly dispersing, the ocean is able to overwhelm it with its size so we aren’t looking at a very large area that’s fish docks are at danger |
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Term
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Definition
report just released about this ship that sank about 200 years ago filled with gold and silver, about 530 million dollars in todays value
it had been resserected by a private marine company called Odyssey
found the ship, and arrested it properly and then quietly and quickly shipped all of the items to Florida
forced spain to sue them in the US, with American court and judge, Odyssey lost the case anyway, judge ruled it is all spanish property, and all of the stuff goes back to Spain |
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Term
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Definition
couple lives in Jupiter, house on intracoastal and they couldnt see the water
cut down 104 trees without asking permission, which are protected because they float through the water and keep the sea life in good condition
they have been really nasty about their responses tot he town fines
facing 1 million dollar fine, plus cost of replacing trees, and jail time.
ocean such a fragile ecosystem |
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Term
| Mr. Bush’s National Monuments |
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Definition
made one of the most impressive and impacting movements
largest increase in americas national monuments in history
areas of the pacific we own or have sovereign influence over
we have created national monuments which means people can’t fish, bottom trolling, etc. there
January 2009 Decision, just as he was leaving office |
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Term
| Our Relationship With the Oceans |
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Definition
-debateable and highly controversial
Liberals tend to argue that we are Stewards of the earth
so it is our job as stewards to preserve and pass on these to future generations
-Proprietors- Conservatives tend to argue
- we should exploit and profit and cash in
Management will happen whether you are a steward or a proprietor, it will happen and has been happening for all of history, and the momemtum keeps moving for higher degrees of management |
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Term
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Definition
Pacific the large one, very calm
Atlantic , is where most of our foreign policy is directed because the Great Powers have been the Atlantic powers, can be rough ocean
As the 21st century unfolds, and the large transfer of wealth from West to East happens, future generations may think differently
Southern Ocean ( antartic), can be rough
Indian Ocean , can be rough
Artic Ocean, calm ocean |
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Term
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Definition
since they all can’t really be separated
71% of the earth’s surface
integral to all known life -- why oceans aren’t just an environmental topic |
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Term
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Definition
230,000 we know of
estimated 2 million we don’t know that exist
this is because we only know about 5% of the ocean |
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Term
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Definition
-theories oceans on other planets
-theories that there are planets that are only water, which are extraterrestrial oceans |
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Term
|
Definition
ocean life 3 billion years older than life on land
oceans are 4.4 billion yrs old
hurts people’s biblical views ( i.e adam and eve)
97% of earths water is salty
Water Cycle ( 3%)
Global Climate
subject to this because of the large nature and also has an impact on how it unfolds |
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Term
| The Importance of The Oceans |
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Definition
1 billion people
food
1 in 7 people eat fish, if we had more money economically, people would eat more fish
Global Trade
the oceans are a global freeway for trade
inexpensive for sending things, especially if running with the current
-200 million jobs are related to ocean behavior, not including those who sell their products to foreign markets
Access to new land
Absorbs CO2 and turns it into Oxygen
serves as a filter for pollutants in the water so fish don’t absorb and we consume, but also for air we breathe |
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Term
| Policy Dimensions of The Oceans |
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Definition
-National Security interest
-Economic Security
Global Governance ( challenges)
all of these simoltaneously |
|
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Term
|
Definition
Threats to Fisheries, Climate Change, Conflicting Claims, Sea Lane Security, Pollution, Oil and Gas ( natrual resrouces)
Some are Global Commons Issues
a challenge one country did not create and one country can not resolve,
pollution, etc.
all nations would have to work together
Pollutiion Climate Change Fisheries
Some are State to State issues
Claims Security Energy |
|
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Term
| Ocean Management Problems |
|
Definition
-Vastness- hard to manage and keep track of who is in it at anytime
Common Heritage - since no country technically owns, no country is in charge of it
its a public good, you can have free riders that take and don’t chip in to take care of it
Riches - so many different; gold, copper, etc.
because of these 3 realites, very difficult for countries to manage the ocean and solve problems it confronts |
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Term
|
Definition
historically fish have been very difficult for us to count the population, they move they can not sit still
the only way we have historically dealt with the calculation, is to estimate how many we fish each year, and the amount should go up over time, and then it collapses all of the sudden
but what does this mean? We depleted a source ? Or did they move to another location? |
|
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Term
|
Definition
a pasture, no fences or gates and everyone can use it
the cattle herder calculates that if its free to feed one cow, its free to feed all of them and it is in his interest to bring all cows there so he can maximize utility
before know it, no cows or grass.
This is what everyone uses to make a point
Marxists use this saying maximize profits, gobble up system, and the rest will crash
Capitalists will use this to say socialism is a problem since it was a common area |
|
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Term
|
Definition
We used to think about the ocean as a big mystery
Now, different view of oceans
i.e the deadliest catch on tv |
|
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Term
|
Definition
Defined as the first industrial fishing vessel ( the ship that launched the insudtrial fishing age)
in mid 1950’s , explosion of # of fish brought in
First industrial fishing vessel that launched the industrial fishing age, British ship, had refrigeration and ways to keep fish fresh |
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Term
|
Definition
-dropping a net with weights on it, and the bottom of it stays down,
it rips up huge amounts of coral
you can destroy and ocean floor for generations |
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Term
|
Definition
-period before 1950, it was pretty flat
-after industrial fishing, it went upward with technology
2005 another take off, and aquaculture, own bay area with own stock and you replenish yourself
major take of in tonnage of fish |
|
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Term
| Atlantic Cod and Southern Blue Fin tuna |
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Definition
--relatively stable for years, and then industrial fishing happened and now they are very much gone with extreme limits on them
rapid decline, a lot of talk about losing the species |
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Term
|
Definition
-used to be fair sport, and the whale often won
it is not dangerous as it used to be with technology
then they dump whatever they dont need
has been regulated, the Reagan admin in the 80’s headed this for fear of losing the whales
in the past few years, Norway and Iceland are out and don’t abide by the treaty because they want it for their culture and econmomy |
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Term
| Global Stocks ( know this) |
|
Definition
25% is near the limit of overfished
50% is at maximum capacity
25% is either exploited with room to grow or unexploited
about 75% of fish or either maximally exploited or overfished |
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Term
|
Definition
melting
temperatures are clearly on the rise
the consensus is lacking on what is making the temps go up, but everyone agrees it is going up |
|
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Term
|
Definition
know for absolute certainity
tis will no cause sealengths to rise because already in the water
the permafrost is the real killer, 25% of the worlds land is pernamently frozen ( permafrost)
as they melt when temp. rise, as permafrosts melts the water it releases co2 which is the problem for us |
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|
Term
| Oil and Gas ( and natrual resources) |
|
Definition
tons of them
huge deposits of methane on the coasts of countries
Large deposits for also gold and mineral deposits |
|
|
Term
Renewable Ocean Energy
Marine Current Power |
|
Definition
| marine currents are very shallow |
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Term
|
Definition
based upon the fact water is cold on top and warm on the bottom
25C difference
cold and warm water meeting and creating energy
out of the 4 energy strategies, this is the least productive and feasible |
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Term
|
Definition
A wheel being driven by river water and turns it
the movement of water creates the opp. to capture energy |
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Term
|
Definition
this power is very close to shore , where the waves crash
put the pistons everywhere off the coast, and as tide comes across, the pistions go up and down , creating energy in a turbine below the ground
these are apart of the 21st century energy movement to get free energy, it is our for the taking |
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Term
|
Definition
-almost all of the oceans pollution started on land
the plastic tops and straws make up this huge island of trash in the ocean and keep piling up more and more |
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Term
|
Definition
another way of pollution ocean
British Petroleum
the explosion killed 11, and then huge amounts of petroleum going into the ocean creating an ecological disaster |
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Term
| Heavy Saturation of the BP spill |
|
Definition
stopped it by filling it with cement
close to the keys, couldve been devastating |
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Term
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Definition
another way the ocean gets polluted; oil sludge and waste dumped= cheaper for people. even though illegal
so hard to catch people doing this |
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Term
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Definition
American policy
we say to people on ships that if they can give us evidence of people dumping at sea, we will fine them and then give you a percentage of what we collect of the fine |
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Term
|
Definition
-delicate and fragile
however, we can very easily manufacture them
they usually die from lack of oxygen
there are some in danger because of pollution (many in gulf area) , dynamic(over) fishing , and tourism |
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Term
| Pollution Path to the Arctic |
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Definition
a lot of air and ocean pollution carried to the north pole by the air and water currents
“ The ecological canary in a coal mine”
the warning system
if it collapses, we are on warning that the rest of the world can collapse as well
however it is so large, it will probably be too late for us to fix the rest of it once it collapses |
|
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Term
|
Definition
lots of pirates
they are going to ask for a ransom , from ships worth a ton of money and insurance companies sign off
pirates have lawyers and negotiators |
|
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Term
| Fishery Depletion and Piracy |
|
Definition
link between the two
Collapse of Fishing vocations----> Unemployed boat captains-->Pirates
Piracy is an opportunistic vocation
Expanding operations now, almost to india, but don’t go there because the value of the prize is greater
Global Shipping lanes, as a pirate you can’t sit out there and intercept because you may not see a ship for months
the narrowest paths of shipping are in the east, because closest together, most piracy
the barbury coast is a huge issue, that area |
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Term
| Obstacles to Combating Piracy |
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Definition
the vastness of the oceans
Common heritage of the oceans
this makes it hard to dictate terms on the ocean
-Territorial Seas Limitations
people use sound as a warefare tactic , very effective |
|
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Term
| Iran’s Threat to Sea Lanes |
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Definition
close down strait of Hormuz
threat isn’t that fact whether or not they can do it , probably can’t
the real threat is when he speaks of it, the gas prices go up here at the pump, and he knows it |
|
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Term
| Clash of Ocean Principles |
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Definition
Freedom of the sea- Old doctrine back to the 17th century, mare liberum
the natural status of the oceans
all nation states enjoy access to the seas
high seas are open to all
-State Ownership of Coastal Seas
those who have real ownership of some sea being coastal ocean
necessary Security interests
countries own territorial seas, it is part of their nation state and is no dif. from a legal point of view
Territorial seas are owned by countries |
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Term
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Definition
| There will always be more high seas than territorial seas |
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Term
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Definition
| a certain amount of the ocean if they are a coastal nation, not if they are landlocked |
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Term
|
Definition
country could claim as far as you can fire a cannon is your property, so the ships need to stay outside of gun reach
problem was some countries had bigger guns than others
really came to a head with Big Bertha arrived
7.8 miles in 1914, could shoot,( that cannon ) |
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Term
|
Definition
1800’s replaced by a standard of 3 nautical miles
everyone agreed on this uniform number |
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Term
| The End of the 3 Mile Rule |
|
Definition
-Harry Truman declared a 200 mile territorial sea without any warning
-Chile was for it
ships becoming more powerful, can get closer and closer
more countries born, many of the new countries having coast lines, and they said they werent around for the old rules and wanted to re-negotiate the whole thing, even more than just the legnth of the terr. sea, new factor ( gold, silver, etc.)
for 30 years the world sat down and debated how to define everything |
|
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Term
|
Definition
UN Convention of the laws of the sea
otherwise known as the law of the sea ( treaty/ or convention)
Most current controversial was a Seabed authoroity - this group would decide when the goods are mined from the sea floor, where the $$ would go
also has a tribunal, a law of the seas court
doesnt do anything controversial
mainly deal with bail issues |
|
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Term
|
Definition
Territorial sea- decided 12 nautical miles
Contiguous Sea- 24 nautical miles
where you can protect your sea from pollution and you can have preservation
Exclusive Economic Zone- 200 Nautical Miles
no one can fish or use without your permission
US didn’t like this |
|
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Term
|
Definition
24 nautical miles
where you can protect your sea from pollution and you can have preservation |
|
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Term
|
Definition
|
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Term
|
Definition
200 Nautical Miles
no one can fish or use without your permission
US didn’t like this |
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Term
|
Definition
turkey loses a lot to the law of the sea
Greece gets to draw a 3 mile line around all of the little islands it owned
after it ratified the law of the sea treaty, 3 miles turned into 43% of Aegean, and then the 12 miles turned into 75% |
|
|
Term
| Israel and the Mari-B Gas Field |
|
Definition
Israel and their exclusive econimic zone
if Gaza and the Palestinians are recognized as a state, they would get exclusive access to a gas field, and then portions of others
some say Israel is resisting statehood for this reason |
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Term
|
Definition
some never signed
some signed and not ratified ( US) |
|
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Term
| Law of the Sea Convention |
|
Definition
US Cost Benefit Analysis
Reagan said it is fatally flawed and we wont ratify
Bush SR. and Clinton agree
in 2007, he re-intro’d the treaty and asked them to sign it, he said it is a matter of national security to ratify this, Obama agreed but no one has had success
bush said being on the outside of this treaty, we will sacrifice the use of Arctic Energy to the Russians particularly.
Russia can make claim in the Arctic with most of the oil and resources, but if we can’t be in the treaty, we don’t have access to make the claim |
|
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Term
|
Definition
Claiming all the way up to the north pole
will probably win with their hard scientific evidence |
|
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Term
| Missing out on Shelf Claims |
|
Definition
We can never (the us) make these claims
why Obama and Bush believed we are better with it as a cost-benefit anaylsis |
|
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Term
| Developing and Ocean Policy |
|
Definition
had in 1969
revistied it in 2000
Bush
Principle group that got involved:
Watkins Commission
Suggested to Ratify UNCLOS
Suggest to adopt Precautionary Approach
we have to be cautious and take precautionary action |
|
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Term
|
Definition
introduced at Rio in 1992 at the Earth Summit
what this says is that countries can not use the abscense of scientific data to engage in behavior that could be ecologically dangerous
we have to be cautious and take precautionary action |
|
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Term
|
Definition
in a dictatorship, between the gov. and the people, the military is usually between to mantain the stability of the government
in a democracy, b/t the gov. and the citizens is the congress
National interest is in the interest of the citizens, and the foreign policy needs to reflect the interest of the people |
|
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Term
|
Definition
the attitudes of the citizens
vary across countries
Europeans tend to look at gov.’s as insitutions that shield and protect
Americans look at the gov. as an entity that needs to be restrained and a threat to our civil liberties, we don’t want a gov. that tells us what to do or is empowered to decide local issues
JAmes Madison and Jefferson- Madison said the need of having counter-balancing interests
Washington/ Adams - Washington has a military background which is about hiearchy and logic.
Americans are apprehensive about government |
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Term
|
Definition
why do we think this way?
Institutions - We say we want gov. out of our way as Americans basically
ahistorical - we think of our country as a role model for the rest of the world to emmulate; we only look foward we don’t look back and compare often |
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Term
|
Definition
not called ideological parties, if it was:
the left would be socialism or marxism and the right would be facism or monarchism
usually a facism tries to create a dynamic between the state and large buisiness
Center would be Liberals and Conservatives, and the green party prior
if you have a idologically driven system, less likely multi party
in US we are a 2 party system, have a lot of overlap between them
political parties are becoming more ideological and there is a natrual tendency for the republicans to shift right and democrats to shift left which creates a vaccum in the center
the vaccumm in the center ( ideologically) has no party
we are seeing people now seeing people to run for their ticket in all these diff. states |
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Term
|
Definition
Never says to us what it means to be normal
while each the republicans and democrats talk in different names, the elites of the two parties are almost identical meeting in the middle, and they are identical by their wealth in the center
when you move to the two opposite ends as well, they are pushed by personal wealth on each sides as well; not ideology, i.e a poor republican base headed by highly wealthy elites that meet in the middle
we have a 0- 35% tax rate on corps
17%
top 30 companies that paid 0% in past 3 years, 160 billion in profits
AIG- insuring investments, very wealthy and successful until the economic collapse
Projected at AIG will not pay taxes in the next decade, even thought it was bailed out by tax payers and per quarter making $19.8million in profit
washington DC has become a cash cow, not for people to make a meaningful stance in gov. but to cash in and hit a jackpot |
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Term
|
Definition
an organization that promotes one particular interest or another
can focus on numerous things, every imaginable issue
In the 1960’s only 2 interest groups
in the 1970s and foward there was an explosion of interest groups
many law firms in DC are only interest groups in lobbyist- lobbyists work for interest group
the lines are all blurrred with interest group, lobbyist, and lawyers |
|
|
Term
| -Why Interest groups are on the rise/grown: |
|
Definition
Massive and imcomprehensiable growth of government; how quickly it got to its present size
The division of Congress : the house and the senate
now every house in congress chairs a committee with subcommittees
Massive increase in national budget |
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Term
| Examples of Interest Groups |
|
Definition
Big Labor
-Interest group
-want to secure the interest of those who work
Big Buisiness
Big Agriculture |
|
|
Term
| How do interest groups influence policy? |
|
Definition
-The way these interst groups influence policy is by providing money to campaigns, even if union involvement is down
Personell is also a reason how they influence policy
the gov. and interest groups no longer seperable
these interest groups provide the legistlation and write it into the bills
most are domestic but when we look at situations like this , turns into foreign policy |
|
|
Term
| Cuba, Cold war ( post 1959) |
|
Definition
our policy towards Cuba was based on a geostrategic calculation
soviet foothold in carribean and a direct threat to US and vulnerable countries in South America
as a result of the calculation of a threat, there will be sanctions to Cuba
now we are post cold war era, now we have political parties
currently it is about winning FL, thinking about Cuba.
because FL is a swing state and the exiles came to FL
political parties said if we alienate the anti-castro cubans in fL, the candidates would lose FL
We have interest groups, asking for exceptions to the sanction i.e Big Agriculture
there are lots of ways to go through the sanctions and 30 out of the US states sell food to Cuba |
|
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Term
| Any country of any importance has a lobbyst on call in washington, Israel, Turkey, Egypt |
|
Definition
these people go to the legislators, give them money to get them reelected, and then tell them about the legistlation on their country needs to be softened a bit, and then we change our foriegn policy
Turkey will not call what happened with the Armenians a Genocide, the only state that would is California, what is special about California is a large Armenian population that spends a lot of money on an interest group that gets people reelected |
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Term
|
Definition
more pristine because they do not pedal money
principally use these means of communication:
Use heritage
print - a lot
television- Cspan
Internet
think tanks do policy, university prof. are more vague in their policy |
|
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Term
|
Definition
based at Stanford University on campus
academics are mainly center-left, wheras this think tank tends to be not
here we have political science professors , and such
california based, conservatie think tanks
made of intellectuals and policy members whom produce information
that information may be designed strictly to clarify or provide you with policy direction.
it is on Stanford because it has a major endowment |
|
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Term
|
Definition
usually only human interest stories you hear about the country
country very expansive, width of the continental US, but the land mass is 3x size of texas, 18,000 Islands with about 1/3 with human populations, two major islands being Jakarta and Malaysia
Mountainous country, with a lot of diverse species of plants and animals ( famous dragon lizard of Indonesia)
One of a number of Megadiverse Countries
Diverse in terms of the looks of the country; very traditional look but also a new and modern Indonesia with skyscrapers and such
Muslim country
downtown the country is very Western; very rich and affluent
richest man made his money in tobacco and ciggs
-Has a very large impoverished populations, on the outdoor islands with no electric and such
-infant mortality rates up, life expectancy rates down
Mr. Obama is Indonesian
has a statue of him there
APEC knew Obama was coming and one person opened up a club called Obama
more than 80% is muslim |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
| these are countries where you can find almost every species known to man living |
|
|
Term
| Indonesia Caught Between Two Worlds |
|
Definition
the modern world and more traditional world
the modern being more secular and profit driven ( i.e US Europe Australia)
traditional being more like the Arab States
Looks to us for trade and prosperity ( modern world)
Look to traditional world for Culture and Religion |
|
|
Term
| Mr Bush’s Line in the Sand |
|
Definition
-when 9/11 happened, said no longer two sides said you are either for or againist us
has to say which side they are on
did not help that he said this is crusade |
|
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Term
|
Definition
began with a negative asessment of Western Countries
argued that Western strategy is that they are exploiting Cultural Imperialism; which runs counter to the beliefs of the people
-The United States leads the Western Countries, also militarily
a few countries like Canada and Australia being the Supporting countries
legitimize Americas policies by supporting them
-9/11 happened and targeted the US’s financial and military center
-however there were other 9/11’s in diff countries and such:
ex. Turkey hit hard in Istanbul, Spain 2004, London 2005-tunnel bombs |
|
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Term
|
Definition
hit in 2002
aussies go to bali
nightclub hit so hard, 202 people dead with 75% Australians
Al Qaeda said you supporting countries, hit them, raise cost of supporting US policy
they were hit because a lot of Australians are there, innocent victim of al qaedas strategy
Indonesia always straddling lines b/t US and Alqaeda |
|
|
Term
| Indonesia Country Profile |
|
Definition
-Economic growth is very impressive
1945 Statehood
Democracy since 1998
Worlds Larget Archipelagic State
250 Million --> rank #4 in world
316 ethnic groups, 350 languages, $4700 per capita
largest muslim country in the world |
|
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Term
|
Definition
10 million people live
very modern and upbeat
problem in cities like this, their garbage with no where to put it so ton of pollution |
|
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Term
|
Definition
-fragile country so subject to shocks
1997 Asian Economic Collapse, changed for better
1998 Fall of Suharto
2002 Loss of East Timor - became independent
2004 Tsunami |
|
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Term
|
Definition
on the list, anyone investing is going to have in their global growth portfolio will have stocks since the expectation is growth here
The market for indonesia goes up and down quickly is the problem--> economic growth
about 70% of the worlds trade goes through there |
|
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Term
|
Definition
Indonesia is a member
created to counter balance Vietnam which was the emerging regional threat because the power size and military, and when the Cold war ended, Vietnam was brought in |
|
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Term
|
Definition
Indonesia is a member
Petroleum exporting Cartel |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
it is an OPEC country that out demands its supply
crossover happened about 8 years ago and havent closed gap since |
|
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Term
|
Definition
Indonesia Member
one of top 20 economy in world
today they are talking about Greece |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
Indonesia Member
-formed after WW2 by non western or eastern countries, “the southern bloc”
not going to join S.U or US and fall under their shadow |
|
|
Term
| Indonesia's Constant Threat |
|
Definition
sitting on top of tectonic plates that move and cause earthquakes
every 30 months there is a major eruption
meets at the “arc” |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
Happened in a place called Aceh
western tip
wanted independence for a long time (Aceh)
cultural and historical but there is natrual gas around its tip so Jakarta never wants to give it up
Said that donations to help Aceh, need to go to Jakarta first
the way they responded to the disaster was positive, aceh signed a peace treaty afterwords |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
Trade - so much trade flows through so it is a port of call for refueling , restocking, etc.
Terror- J.I
AIDS- not officially a problem but it is the problem; tidal wave through the area of the world; countries will not admit
Sea Lanes : territorial disputes claimed by all countries in region |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
SBY
6th president of country, but 4th President in 14 years.
Elected in 2004, barely winning
back then their voting system looked like Britains
in 2009, they went to direct presidential and won outright with 65% of the vote
Military General who trained at Ft. Bragg North Carolina
studied at Webster University in St. Louis
Has Two Problems:
his past being East Timor; he was in a command posistion and anyone in that position during East Timor gets a war criminal/condemnation because it was a horrible genocide
he is term limited to 2 5 year terms, even though he would easily get re-elected; now no one to fill the vaccumm in 2014 |
|
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Term
|
Definition
| the dutch took little pieces of countries meaning that the dutch could sail all over and always have a port to go, however they took all of Indonesia |
|
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Term
|
Definition
kicked the dutch out
captured all of Indonesia
Timor only half captured and Malaysia wasnt |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
Indonesian who fought dutch for Independence
1929, put into jail ( i.e just like Nelson Mandela)
Freedom fighter
The Japanese needed a collaborator, they let him out of jail and he said he would coperate with them in managing his country
they recognized him as a President of a new country ( Independence of 1945)
There was the war and in 1949 the Dutch said fine it was independent
SO natrually he was the first president , until 1965 |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
Humanitarian Catastrophe
he is suspected by the US ( CIA) that he may end up going communist, so they begin to plan his overthrow
find a group of young officers , who were young turk ( those who rebel againist military to take control of country) in a coup, killed 6 generals
General who wasnt killed, took this and told the President he was out and he needed to step up to go againist the coup
labeled a large part of the country as commmunist and killed them, 500,000-1 million people killed
NY times said one of the most savage massacres in history |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
The General
Used the Communist Threat into a Coup
Banned Communists
Created a strong Bureacracy
Economic Gains, because the military can provide order and stability
had a group called the “Berkley Mafia”
countries like Indonesia, they send their students to US colleges for training.
Learn economics at Berkley, took back to Indonesia and Suharto was secure enough to let them run the economy because he didn’t understand it ; and they did a very good job and US supported them since we saw them as an investment , it was apart of our containment policy
Close to US |
|
|
Term
| Suharto’s System of Governance |
|
Definition
He is at the top and called it the “ New Order”
He relied upon the Indonesian Military
cheiftans 1022, connected to Suharto through the systems |
|
|
Term
| Dual Functions of the Military |
|
Definition
Military Responsibility of protecting the nation of invasion, and fight the communists (domestic threats)
Civilian role , where military keeps law and order in streets and governmental administration ( they fill a lot of these jobs)
Military ready to step in and run the country if necessary
similar to egypts model under Nassar
Praetarian State |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
| a country where the military is not in power but it will step in as necessary, i.e Thailand |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
Family in positions of power
Friends and allies in positions of power too
All started Buisinesses ( export and import)
he could get a cut of every single contract ( 3-4%)
Global institutions $$$, takes a little off the top
$35 Billion dollars in his personal bank account when stepped down in 2007 |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
During Suharto’s reign it got larger
Western NG ( New Guinea)
East Timor |
|
|
Term
| Expanding : Western New Guinea |
|
Definition
1969: Suharto wanted the area from the Dutch
US and UN backed a referendum
because he is an ally in the global struggle to contain the Soviet Union
-Choices: Netherlands, Indonesia, Independence ---> vote they got to choice out of three
-1,022 Cheiftans allowed to vote for all
Unanimously selected Indonesian integration ( would lose jobs if didnt) |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
1975: Portugal Withdrew
Revolution in portugal in 1974, a Marxist gov. went to power which reject colonization, so they gave them all away
East Timorese declared independence
Suharto ordered in the troops to take control
FRETILIN accused of communism ; (Freedom movement in East Timor) ; kiss of death
Puppet government put in place and requested an annexation
Civil War erupted: 250,000 Killed
42% of the population
systematic genocide
were targeted because of group identity
-1976: East Timor became a province after being absorbed into Indonesia |
|
|
Term
| East Asian Economic Engines |
|
Definition
Japan as the dragon growing and growing
the tigers were next in line -- pretty sophisticated not as impressive : south korea, taiwan, singapore, Hong Kong
The last in line are the lesser tigers --> Indonesia, Phillippines, Malaysia, Thailand
They all move up over time |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
Regional Economic Growth
Influx of Capital as a result of the regional economic growth in east and southeast Asia
as they are competing, they are raising their interest rates, bidding war up
1997 Thailand, said they could not return 7 1.2% profit
when that happened everyone got out of east asia -- Electronic Herd ( everyone followed in a flight to safety out of risky areas in decline into a safe place in the US which is a safe haven) and it lead to..
Regional economic collapse |
|
|
Term
| Circles of Economic Destruction |
|
Definition
Thailand first
then Indonesia got directly hit
by 2000,2001 Argentina was collapsing
Riots-Everything was gone
they made fires and went crazy |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
Refered to as the most powerful dictator in the world , because he could leave on his terms
he didnt
no one wanted him, not the military, not himself |
|
|
Term
| Rapid Transistion of Leaders |
|
Definition
Habibie, wasn’t there long , the first election was 1998
Elected Wahid, a blind muslim cleric who was boderline mentally incompetent
the military was ready to step in
-Lost the next election
Next President was Megawati
very popular |
|
|
Term
| The Centrality of the Military |
|
Definition
Role of the Military absolutely critical
Democratic and Prospering Indonesia
Indonesian Military was center and vital
yielded power to civilians
we dictated the terms, the US said that behind the first option is they get money if they yield power to civilians , the other option was miltiary in power with riots int he streets and no money...no other options
Accepted East Timor
Not Assumed Power- gets a lot of credit for not after things calmed down
Military was central to a democratic and prosperous Indonesia |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
the relationship evolved over time
largely influenced by the Era,
Cold War Policy towards Indonesia, from Independence but especially since 1965 until the Late 80’s
Post Cold war Policy to the 1990’s
Post 2001 --- War on Terror
3 very different approaches to Indonesia |
|
|
Term
| Cold War Policy ( US/Indonesia) |
|
Definition
When we looked at a map of East Asia especially after 1975 ( unification of Vietnam)
our fear was communism axis with Indonesia, Vietnam, China and USSR
Cold War Policy :
Secure Ally at All Costs; Geo strategic Calculations ( with us or with them?)
Support Suharto in 1965 Coup - he was more anti-communist
Military Aid
Sacrifice East Timor ( what happened here we turned our heads)
Concede Western New Guinea |
|
|
Term
| 1965 Coup -- > Suharto in Power |
|
Definition
CIA trying to undermine a legit government
Aims to anti-sukarno forces
assasination plots
this was uncovered in the 70’s
Pentagon increased military aid undermining president and withheld economic aid to Sukarno |
|
|
Term
|
Definition
-1975, the Portuguese concede, East Timor--->claims independence
as they are making that claim, Gerald Ford and Henry Kissinger are in Jakarta at the time of December 74’ , the evidence clear they were given the green light
Genocide of a Christian Nation
clear american fingerprints on that disaster |
|
|
Term
| US- Indonesia Post Cold War Policy |
|
Definition
New Calculation - how you behave as a country now matters to us
Economics, social justice, Humanitarianism
Bailout of 1997 Economic Collapse, $154 Billion in one year
Democratization, we promoted it shortly after the collapse of economy
New East Timor Policy , we promoted
reflective of our new foreign policy
East Asia overprinted, so value lowers and inflation rises and $ drops quickly
havent fixed the instructural problems of their economies but we put out the fire which was our goal |
|
|
Term
| Reversal on East Timor Policy |
|
Definition
Fall of Suharto
1997 Asian Contagion
Massive Loan Authorizations
New Leverage
East Timor /Indonesia -- also Serbia/Kosovo because muslim/christian etc. We acted the same way to both of them |
|
|
Term
| Reversal on East Timor Policy |
|
Definition
Fall of Suharto
1997 Asian Contagion
Massive Loan Authorizations
New Leverage
East Timor /Indonesia -- also Serbia/Kosovo because muslim/christian etc. We acted the same way to both of them |
|
|
Term
| Independence for East Timor |
|
Definition
Started with a letter that the gov. of Australia no longer recognizes the claim of Indonesia for East Timor
that letter led to an immediete Government Capitulation
their president was afraid we would cut off the money
Military Countermove
death squads
Then we diplomatically intervened
gave them 2 options to back off of East timor or you lose all aid
they backed off
Vote occured
you thought turnout would be low but there was a 96.8% turnout with almost all East Timorees voting for Independence
a PKO lead by Australia |
|
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Term
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Definition
JI: Militant Islamic Terrorist Organization (1969)
Loose confederation of several Islamic groups
Financial links with Al Qaeda
Goal: fundamentalist Islamic theocracy
Indonesia, Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Thailand
Numerous Attacks, including Bali 2002
Preaches hatred through radio station and school
schools frequently used because if you go away from central government, the gov. usually isn’t interested
-” Death in the way of Allah is highest aspiration.” |
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Term
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Definition
October 12,2002: Bali terror attack
one of many Al Qaeda targets planned for attack
U.S. Demanded a government crackdown
Threatened to close U.S. embassy in Jakarta
Fear: Religious war will weave into Al Qaeda |
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Term
| Two goals of the Bali Terror Attack |
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Definition
1. punish Australia for close ties with U.S.
2. establish a operational base in Indonesia
Al Qaeda was trying to leap into the “3rd” phase so they have counter attack ability |
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Term
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Definition
Poor Country, divide country by amount of people, lowers economic prosperity
Per Capita $,Health, Education - universal and mandatory but the kids often don’t go to school, Infrastructure
Local Problems
Aceh - tsunami here, Muslim
Maluka- Christian and Muslim
Papau- Christian population
No Successor to SYB
Interest Groups
18% Subsidies
Global Economic Downturn |
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Term
| U.S. Foreign Policy -- Indonesia |
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Definition
3rd Largest Democracy
15th Largest eceonomy
Largest Muslim State
ASEAN Chair, southeast asia association
Ally in the War on Terror |
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Term
| US Foreign Policy: Pacific Rim |
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Definition
USA --- China
Japan, Australia, Philippines
India bridges the gap between these two seperate groups |
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Term
| Repairing the Damage of the Iraq War |
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Definition
Popularity, Indonesian view:
2001 - above 60%, 2003- 20%, 2005 40%, 2007 20%, 2009 - 60%, 2011 60% |
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Term
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Definition
Two Houses
House of Rep, less respect for unwritten rules of chamber
Senate- more careful and lethargic, in charge of treaties and oversight |
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Term
| Politics of Congress and Halls |
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Definition
they have safe seats , currently 53 dem, 47 rep.
the more square footages you have in office, the more important you are |
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Term
| Politics of Congress and Halls |
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Definition
they have safe seats , currently 53 dem, 47 rep.
the more square footages you have in office, the more important you are |
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Term
| The Congress and Foreign Policy |
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Definition
Power to Legislate
Power of the Purse ( ability to spend $)
Declare War ( Senate) - 5 have been declared
Consent to Treaties
General Oversight ( include access to info)
always going to be bipartisan committees, that have access to most secret info |
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Term
| The Congress vs. The President |
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Definition
At battle at long time
Each on a scale, trying to have more influence on AMF
In theory , relatively balanced, but at times one or the other are tipped in each favors
over the long haul, the winner over time is the President |
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Term
| Congress and Foreign Policy |
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Definition
Role of Congress in foreign policy
significantly up in the 50’s and 60’s, but is lower than the peak which is at 74’
in 1950’s and early 60’s, one reason Congress did not play an influential role was because there was a consensus being Containment of the Soviet Union
Role of the Congress shoots up after Vietnam War Powers Act, and Watergate in the 60’s
an uptick in the 1980’s, the Boland Amendment, the Pres. Vetoed this and Congress overrode the veto, and Boland responded saying they could not provide fund |
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Term
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Definition
declaration of war anytime American troops are in dangers way, authorization or attack on US soil
definitely overstepping boundaries of congress
Presidents dont really challenge this because it is largely disregareded and little congress can do |
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Term
| Institutions of Foreign Policy |
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Definition
| President, Congress , FP Bureacracies |
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Term
| Theories of Foreign Policy |
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Definition
Rational Actor Model, Management Styles( of pres.), Personalities
Academics who study AMF, this all will dominate
argued there is a whole lot more than an academic setting, and it is an informal setting in D.C.
original washington was boring, under construction and miserable; it was built on a swamp
Washington today is gorgeous with great museums , Georgetown University, etc. |
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Term
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Definition
Then ---> A place for part-time residence; a Political Captial
Today--> A place to live and put down roots; Cosmopolitan City |
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Term
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Definition
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Term
| Why Inside matters for Foreign Policy |
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Definition
Insiders get things done
Personal Touch
Bureaucracy Connections
Cultivate the Media
Socialize for Info ( what being imposed, opposed, and what happening next)
This info is considered to be an extreme minority perspective |
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Term
| Levels of Social Life in DC |
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Definition
A List --> President and Principals
B List --> Under-Secretaries and Generals
C List --> Members of Congress
the parties one goes too, shows the amount of impact on foreign poliy, etc. |
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Term
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Definition
| a company that made green tech, supported by a gov. subsidy; everyone who looked at it knew it wouldnt make it, so the criticisms came out that it was favortism |
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Term
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Definition
| largely a political statement on what we achieved/done and soft future goals |
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Term
| Old School Definition of Power |
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Definition
Realpolitik approach largely based on military power and geographic location of a country, should be traded in for a new framework
approach taken by almost every American President, besides Carter , etc.
Realpolitik world of nation states given degree of power based off of $$$ spent on military, US on own level all by itself.
can even threaten to fight wars and get other people crumble because of status by $$ |
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Term
| New School Definition of Power |
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Definition
GeoPolitics ( and geoenergy), Natrual Resources, Manipulation ( global energy markets which gives a country real power)
Now we look at power being through Consumption with Energy GeoPolitics
US consumes more than double than #2 in world ( being China) |
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Term
| Energy GeoPolitics: Using Resources |
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Definition
Production and Consumption
Price Manipulation
National Defense: if you have a natrual resource, it may give you a higher degree
Coercion
Attack |
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Term
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Definition
| the ability t change the balance in a particular market, to drive it in the direction that suits your interests |
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Term
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Definition
southern, not a lot of $$
1973, pulled their resources, used their cartel, and raised the price of gas a lot
OPEC Oil Shocks, the 1st indication that maybe our old way of thinking |
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Term
| Energey GeoPolitics V. Realpolitik |
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Definition
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Term
| Maximizing Leverage and Damage |
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Definition
Oil revenues that went to oil states was so large, so much $$
Then these states decided to invest and deposit into Western Banks
Then loan it to third world countries
Then they use it to buy more oil from the rich countries
Petro-Dollar Cycles
Russia has Ukraine and Belarus neighboring them. They both get natrual gas through pipes from Russia
The leaders stopped resisting privatization, and would hold private auctions. The bureacrats got it for cheap, they are of Russia
at this time, Ukraine is not a friend of Russia
when he won the election, he wanted to join NATO ( Ukraine), Russia said you are going to pay $230 per 1000 cubic meters per year while Belarus would pay 46 per 1000 for good behavior. When someone spoke up, they cut it off.
Next election they elected someone pro Russia and Putin. The Russians did not have to invade ukraine to collapse its gov. |
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Term
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Definition
oil states at top with oil revenues coming in, arrow down to western banks with deposits, from western banks to third world with loans arrow, from 3rd world up back to oil states with oil purchases
3rd world debt has increased since 1973 ( OPEC)
mideast has the reserves and are in a formidable positstion within geopolitics |
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Term
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Definition
If Russia wants Ukraine to freeze, germany would as well, because Ukarine, Belarus, Georgia connects to Western Europe and Germany.
Using Energy Resources Leverage ---> Enhance the Power of the State |
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Term
| Energy Trumping Power Politics |
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Definition
NATO Enlargement, in 1990’s, SR. GW promised germany would not be a part of NATO, and then it did.
US Posistion-- opp. for US to out manuever , and to Add Soviet Republics so that when russia finally awakens from its depression, it will see all of these countries siding with the US
-European Posistion - Avoid problems with Russia, VETO |
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Term
| Nord Stream: Cutting Deals |
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Definition
Chaired by former chancellor of Germany
Going straight from Germany to Russia
Under subterrain |
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Term
| Russia’s Realpolitik Calculation |
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Definition
Full of posibilities
central Asia, Afghanistan, northern frontier, geostrategically russia is a hard place to defend
they would be moving outward and expanding |
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Term
| Russia’s Energy GeoPolitic Calculation |
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Definition
Enourmous amount of natrual gas that has many layers of insulation
who would attack when they have so much energy to their use
now went from perpetual weakness to perpetual strength |
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Term
| Politics v. Energy GeoPolitics |
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Definition
| Look at Cuba, geostrategic threat, we will not trade with them, yet the whole other world looks at their oil and wants to deal with them |
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Term
| When Having Energy Resources is Bad |
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Definition
When Used as a Crutch by Dictators
Most OPEC States
When Used to Fuel Rebels
African Internal Wars
When others invade to Get Them -- Iraq invade in 1990, and liberating Kuwait |
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Term
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Definition
July 11th 2008, oil hit all time high at $147
Immediatley after:
Mortgage meltdown, global credit crisis, stock market crash
Energy Costs -----> recession
it pushed us over the edge into it |
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Term
| The Sources of Economic Success |
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Definition
Production, Invention, Free Trade, Capital Flow, Cheap Energy ------> Economic Prosperity
Rise in oil prices jumped significant 1st decade after OPEC, then up and down and then takes off at the end
part of reason supply, and demand, and our currecny is not worth a lot anymore
the demand for energy has exploded after 1945 globally |
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Term
| Growing Consumption of Oil |
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Definition
| the northern states have not increased that much, the real growth being in the 3rd world, but in reality it is India and China skewing all of the data |
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Term
| Declining Supply of Energy |
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Definition
| it will collapse at some part this century if expectations are correct, being that energy supply will not be here forever |
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Term
| Dealing with The Energy Challenge |
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Definition
Global Engagement
Reduced Consumption
Tapping into New Suppliers
Domestic Production ( increases) |
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Term
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Definition
The Era of Easy Oil is Over -- no more quick discoveries or natrual flows
The Legacy of Japan: Nuclear Energy
Environment vs. Energy
--- wont be tested on |
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Term
| The Era of Easy Oil is Over |
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Definition
US oil use down, production is up and yet oil prices are up
there is an idea there is a balance, but once we hit the peak, it will collapse and not just flat line |
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Term
| Legacy of Japan’s Disaster: Ohi |
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Definition
really safe nuclear plant, it is shut down
Japan’s Energy --> all Nuclear and imports 98% of its energy except for this
Nuclear makes up 30% of countries needs and out of 54 plants, 2 of them are open and schedules to shut down, oil will be 94% of energy and will be imported from persian or canada after the tsunami/nuclear disaster |
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Term
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Definition
| the only place not getting out is US and CHina and India, they are building as quickly as possible |
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Term
| The Environment vs. Energy Needs |
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Definition
The Competition
We see it when we are in the Artctic, the explosion in the gulf of Mexico, in coal production |
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Term
| The Keystone Pipeline Proposal |
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Definition
From Calgary Area, down to Steele City , and go down to Houston
This would take Alberta(Canada) Crude oil to Texas
It would be transported but processed along the way
Then Sold to foreign Markets |
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Term
| The Keyline Pipeline Benefits |
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Definition
7 billion $ project
Transport and refinement 700,000 barrels per day
50,000 to 250,000 US jobs
Tax revenue |
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Term
| The Keystone Pipeline Negatives |
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Definition
No increase in US Oil Supply
Marginal Impact on Price of Oil
Many Jobs Created are Temporary
Envrionmental damage |
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Term
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Definition
US has so many aquifers
One of the World’s Largest Aquifers
30% of US Water for Irrigation
Drinking Water for 82% of Inhabitants |
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Term
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Definition
Look at USA and Europe who are major sources, and they just don’t agree
Add in China who is completely different and a mass consumer
Look @ Russia that is a dominant producer of Natrual Gas
You have 4 centers of powers that just have diff. interests and disagree with little consensus, so there shouldn’t be a meaningful follow up to Kyoto |
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Term
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Definition
| Move from oil to battery power? |
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Term
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Definition
Canada is our top provider of Oil
we get about half of our oil from 4 countries, and the rest are smaller percentages
so there isnt much beyond the 1st 4 and 5 , as well as norway which is less than 2 percent
Instability of Oil Sources, it would be hard for us to depend on these countries |
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Term
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Definition
We are well endowed with natrual energy
Self- Imposed Off Shore Limitations, only 3% of offshore gov’t land is currently leased for energy exploration
Just proving oil exists doesnt normally mean it is accessable
there is off limit section in us with “800 billion barrels” to be believed |
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Term
| Our Growing Reliance on Oil Imports |
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Definition
| 1982 28% of oil imported, now 60% |
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Term
| Revolution in Natrual Gas |
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Definition
Shale Gas ( oil high concetration in northeast)
Extracted Via “Fracking “-- Hydraulic Fracturing
Increases US Gas Reserves 45%
Gas reduces greenhouse gases by half
Gas is Very Cheap |
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Term
| A National Energy Policy: Priorities |
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Definition
End Reliance on Mid-East Oil
Achieve Energy Self- Sufficiency
Reduction of CO2 Emmissions
ABandon Realpolitik Planning |
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Term
| The reasons why Congress has become more assertive |
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Definition
Decline of Seniority
Proliferation of Specialized Subcommittees
Larger, more politicized Staffs
Declining Party Discipline
Technical Expertise
Youth and Ambition
Television
Air TRavel
Distrust of the President |
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Term
| The 4 structures of the Media |
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Definition
-Basic freedom brings power
the media as a business
Balance shifts to the visual
Consolidation of the media |
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