Shared Flashcard Set

Details

Ops Management Q5
Operations Management - Chapters 11
25
Business
Post-Graduate
05/07/2017

Additional Business Flashcards

 


 

Cards

Term

The forecasting technique that works best for short planning horizons is _____.


 

Definition

 

 

Term

Which of the following statements does NOT fit with the Delphi method?


 

Definition

 

 

Term
Repeatable periods of ups and downs over short periods of time are called _____.
Definition

 

 

 

Term

For Questions #4 and #5

Using the data shown below in Table 3 for the sales of a new CD at a store for the last 4 weeks, answer the questions from #4 and #5.

Table 3

Week

1

2

3

4

Sales

112

105

125

118

 

The three-period moving average for the next week (week 5) is:
 
less than or equal to 100.
more than 120 but less than or equal to 130.
more than 100 but less than or equal to 110.



more than 110 but less than or equal to 120.
 
Definition

more than 110 but less than or equal to 120.



Rationale:

[(105 + 125 + 118)/3 = 116]
Term

For Questions #4 and #5

Using the data shown below in Table 3 for the sales of a new CD at a store for the last 4 weeks, answer the questions from #4 and #5.

Table 3

Week

1

2

3

4

Sales

112

105

125

118

 

The actual sales for week 5 were 105 units. The four-period moving average forecast for week 6 is:
less than or equal to 100
more than 120 but less than or equal to 130.
more than 100 but less than or equal to 110.
 
more than 110 but less than or equal to 120.
Definition

 

 

 

 

more than 110 but less than or equal to 120.
Term

Judgmental forecasting should only be used if no historical data are available.



  True

  False

Definition

 

 

 

 

  

False

Term

A moving average model works best when _____ in the time series.


  only irregular variation is present

  trend, seasonal, and cyclical patterns exist

  only a trend is present

  there is no trend, seasonal, or cyclical pattern

Definition

 

 

  

there is no trend, seasonal, or cyclical pattern
Term

Seasonal patterns can occur over the weeks during a month, over days during a week, or hours during a day.


 True

  False

Definition

 

 

 

  

True

Term

An alternate name for planning horizon is time bucket.


 True

 False

Definition

 

 

 

  

False

Term

Top managers need small-range forecasts of unit sales for individual products (e.g., brands and sizes), for decisions involving financial planning, and for sizing and locating new facilities.


  True

 False

Definition

 

 

 

  

False

Term

Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of a time series?


 


Time bucket
 


Trend

Cyclical pattern

Random variation

Definition

 

 

 

  

Time bucket
Term

A long-range forecast typically covers a planning horizon of 3 to 12 months.



 True

 False

Definition

 

 

 

  

False

Term

All of the following are important concepts in forecasting EXCEPT:


  determining the planning horizon length.

  determining a relationship between a single dependent variable and one or more independent variables.

  identifying cyclical patterns.

  determining the time bucket size (i.e., year, quarter, month, week, day, etc.).

Definition

 

 

 

determining a relationship between a single dependent variable and one or more independent variables.
Term

A tracking signal provides a method for monitoring a forecast by quantifying _____.


  error

  accuracy

  bias

  outliers

Definition

 

 

 

  

bias
Term

Aggregate forecasts are generally much easier to develop whereas detailed forecasts require more time and resources.



 True

  False

Definition

 

 

  

True

Term

Better operational decisions can be made by integrating forecasting with value chain and capacity management systems.


 True

 False

Definition

 

 

 

  

True

Term

_____ forecasts are needed to plan workforce levels, allocate budgets among divisions, and schedule jobs and resources.


  Short-range

  Demand planning

  Long-range

  Intermediate-range

Definition

 

 

 

  

Intermediate-range
Term

A(n) _____ is a one-time variation that is explainable.


  seasonal variation

  cyclical pattern

  random variation

  irregular variation

Definition

 

 

 

irregular variation

Term

Long-range forecasts expressed in sales dollars are more meaningful to top managers than to managers at the operations level.


 True

 False

Definition

 

 

 

TRUE

Term

Trends are characterized by repeatable periods of ups and downs over short periods of time.

 

 

 True

 False

Definition

 

 

 

 

FALSE

Term

All of the following are important criteria in choosing a forecasting method EXCEPT:


  the smoothing constant (á). 

  the time span for which the forecast is made.

  the data requirements.

  the quantitative skills needed.

Definition

 

 

 

  

the smoothing constant (á).
Term

Statistical forecasting is based upon the assumption that the future will be an extrapolation of the past.


TRUE



FALSE

Definition

 

 

 

 

TRUE

Term

Which of the following is NOT a valid approach to gather data for judgmental forecasting?


  Company records

  Questionnaire

  Personal interview

  Telephone contact

Definition

 

 

 

 

COMPANY RECORDS

Term

Which of the following statement is TRUE if the time series exhibits a negative trend in an exponential smoothing technique?


  The forecast will overshoot the actual values.

  The mean square error will be zero.

  The forecast will lag the actual values.

  The alpha value will be one.

Definition

 

 

 

The forecast will overshoot the actual values.

Term

A group of international experts published a set of principles of forecasting that includes all of the following EXCEPT:


  combine forecasts from approaches that are similar.

  ask experts to justify their forecasts in writing.

  use quantitative rather than qualitative methods.

  use multiple measures of forecast accuracy.

Definition

 

 

 

combine forecasts from approaches that are similar.

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