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Chapter 4
The Biased Evaluation of Ambiguous and Inconsistent Data
43
Psychology
Undergraduate 4
09/29/2013

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Cards

Term
trade-offs
Definition
Life is a series of ______.
Term
informal rules & strategies
Definition
When making judgments and decisions, we employ a variety of __________ to make problems easier.
Term
Systematic Error
Definition
The benefit of simplification is paid for at the cost of an ease/accuracy trade-off in human judgment.
Term
representativeness
Definition
________ leads to the belief that causes resemble their effects: Big effects should have big causes, complex effects should have complex causes.
Term
cautiously; accepted more freely
Definition
Tendency for events that challenge broadly-based and time-tested knowledge to be treated _________ and those that fit with pre-existing knowledge to be ____________.
Term
skepticism
Definition
there is an important distinction between _________ and closed-mindedness
Term
bias
Definition
Not all ___ is a bad thing; indeed, a certain amount is absolutely essential.
Term
- context
- generic knowledge
- pre-existing information
Definition
The power and flexibility with which we reasons depends upon our ability to use __________ to extract meaning from new information
Term
"biases"
Definition
As dysfunctional as they may be on occasion, our theories, preconceptions, and _________ are what make us smart.
[as opposed to the computer example]
Term
ambiguous
Definition
Our expectations can bias our evaluation of new information in two ways, depending largely on whether or not the information is ___________.
Term
Truly ambiguous
Definition
____________ information is often simply perceived in a way that fits our preconceptions.
[ex: A 13 C vs. 12 13 14]
Term
unambiguous
Definition
When information is ___________, we subject inconsistent information to more critical scrutiny than consistent information.
Term
"massage"
Definition
With unambiguous information, people subtly and carefully _______ the evidence to make it consistent with their expectations.
Term
Polarization
Definition
Exposure to a mixed body of evidence made both sides even more convinced of the fundamental soundness of their original beliefs.
Term
- too flawed to be relevant
- redefined into a less damaging category
Definition
The end product of the intense scrutiny of contradictory information is that it is either considered ________ or is ___________.
Term
statistical tools
Definition
Scientists employ relatively simple _______ to guard against the misperception of random sequences.
Term
- precisely specified (in advance if possible)
- objectively determined
Definition
The most fundamental safeguard of the scientific enterprise is the requirement that the meaning of various outcomes be _________ & __________.
Term
Blind Observer
Definition
a person who is unaware of either the hypothesis under investigation or the specific condition of the experiment that is being run at any given time.
Term
Experimental Results
Definition
________, like the input to a computer, must fall into certain pre-specified slots according to pre-specified rules or they are not processed at all.
Term
- "context of discovery"
- "context of justification"
Definition
A distinction must be made between the processes involved in generating ideas versus testing ideas: between the _____ and the ______.
Term
"multiple endpoints"
Definition
Our expectations can often be confirmed by any set of _______ after the fact, some of which we would not be willing to accept as criteria for success beforehand.
Term
"variable windows"
Definition
The essence of a number of beliefs is that certain events tend to happen within some (unspecified) period of time.
Term
Barnum Effect
Definition
Refers to the tendency for people to accept as uncannily descriptive of themselves the same generally worded assessment as long as they believe it was written specifically for them on the basis of some "diagnostic" instrument such as a horoscope or personality inventory.
Term
Multi-faceted description
Definition
A ________ is analogous to a "one size fits all" assessment.
Term
subjecting it to intense scrutiny
Definition
People often resist the challenge of information that is inconsistent with their beliefs not by ignoring it, but by ______________.
Term
Two-sided Events
Definition
Those that stand out and register as events regardless of how they turn out.
[example: sporting event]
Term
equally well remembered
Definition
Because two-sided events stand out equally from the stream of experience they are likely to be ________.
Term
"Zeigarnik Effect"
Definition
The tendency for people to remember interrupted tasks better than those that have been completed.
Term
One-sided Events
Definition
Those that stand out and are mentally represented as events only when they turn out one way. Logically nonoccurrence is just as much an event as occurrence, but *phenomenologically it is not.
Term
only one
Definition
In One-sided events, because ________ outcome is likely to be noticed, it is more likely to be recalled.
Term
confirm, confirmations
Definition
Many beliefs or expectations are such that only events that _____ the belief stand out, because only the ______ remind the person of the original expectation
Term
confirmatory events
Definition
________ are much more memorable than non-confirmatory events.
Term
Temporally focused
Definition
The outcome will occur at a particular time known in advance. The person's attention is drawn to what occurs at that particular time, and so either outcome is almost certain to be noticed.
Term
2-sided
Definition
Temporally focused events are likely to be ________.
Term
Temporally unfocused
Definition
A relevant outcome can occur at any time. The person's attention is not automatically drawn to all relevant outcomes and events that confirm the original expectation may have an advantage.
Term
1-sided
Definition
Temporally unfocused events are likely to be _______.
Term
Asymmetries
[indicate one-sidedness]
Definition
- Hedonic Asymmetries
- Pattern Asymmetries
- "Definitional" Asymmetries
- Base-rate Departures
Term
Hedonic Asymmetries
Definition
One of the outcomes arouses much affect or demands further action, making the outcomes one sided (by virtue of instrumental consequences).
Certain kinds of negative events can accumulate in ways that positive events cannot
[ex: Bus is always going in the wrong direction)
Term
Pattern Asymmetries
Definition
An asymmetry in the numerical, spatial, or temporal pattern produced by various outcomes. [ex: 3:33]
Some derive from their relation to broader theories that we hold. [ex: full moon + crime]
Term
"Definitional" Asymmetries
Definition
Events that are one-sided by definition and that are impossible to be disconfirmed. Evidence that is inconsistent with the belief cannot stand out and is not remembered.
[ex: "I can always tell whose had a facelift"]
Term
Base-rate Departures
Definition
The most common determinant of whether an event is one-sided; departures from normality that generate surprise and draw attention. [ex: success of unconventional cancer treatment]
Term
"negatively eventful actions"
Definition
Erving Goffman: Those actions and customs that are so common and automatic that we only become aware of them when someone fails to honor them. The outcome is perceived as an event only when it comes out one way.
Term
accentuate
Definition
These asymmetries tend to ______ information that is consistent with a person's expectations and pre-existing beliefs.
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